ETH Outperforms as Altcoins Rally; US Inflation Data Supports Fed Cut

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

US core PCE inflation held at 2.9% YoY, reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut and supporting risk sentiment. China’s launch of the Digital Yuan International Operations Center in Shanghai signals a push for cross-border CBDC adoption. The SEC and CFTC are advancing regulatory harmonization, aiming to streamline crypto oversight and boost institutional confidence.

Crypto Market

The crypto market showed mixed performance over the past 12 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $109,511, down 0.23%, while Ethereum (ETH) rose 1.96% to $4,018.9, supported by strong DeFi activity. Altcoins diverged: ASTER (ASTER) surged 9.66%, Mantle (MNT) gained 10.5%, and MYX Finance (MYX) climbed 8.7%, all driven by whale accumulation, new partnerships, and increased perpetuals trading.

Today's Outlook

Today features several community and protocol events, including the Keeta mainnet release and Pendle’s HyperEVM incentives vote. No major token unlocks or macroeconomic data releases are scheduled, so market volatility may remain subdued barring unexpected news.

Fear and Greed Index

86.00% Annual Percentile

32 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.78T

0.90%

Total Market Trading Volume

$184.52B

24.87%

Altcoin Season Index

16.67%

Quarterly Percentile

70 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.16B

19.59%

Futures

1.06T

5.36%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The latest US PCE inflation data for August showed core PCE steady at 2.9% YoY, supporting expectations for a Fed rate cut in October. This has stabilized risk sentiment and may boost crypto market liquidity as borrowing costs are expected to decline.

US consumer spending rose 0.6% in August, outpacing forecasts and signaling continued economic resilience. Strong spending supports GDP growth and underpins demand for digital assets, potentially increasing DeFi and NFT transaction volumes.

China launched the Digital Yuan International Operations Center in Shanghai, aiming to accelerate cross-border e-CNY adoption. This move could enhance global digital currency flows and challenge USD dominance, impacting stablecoin and crypto settlement trends.

Tether reportedly secured funding at a $500 billion valuation, reflecting surging institutional confidence in stablecoins. This capital influx may drive further stablecoin integration in DeFi and trading, supporting overall crypto market depth.

Major US economic data releases, including PCE and GDP, have led to significant portfolio rebalancing and over $1.6 billion in leveraged crypto liquidations, highlighting the sensitivity of BTC and ETH prices to macroeconomic indicators.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The SEC and CFTC will host a regulatory harmonization roundtable on Monday, aiming to align oversight frameworks for crypto assets, which could streamline compliance and boost institutional confidence.

Circle plans to introduce an on-chain refund mechanism for USDC on its Arc blockchain, addressing regulatory requirements for stablecoin compliance and potentially accelerating adoption by traditional financial institutions.

The CFTC is exploring frameworks to permit tokenized assets, including stablecoins, as collateral in derivatives markets, signaling a major shift toward integrating digital assets into regulated financial infrastructure.

Tether has secured funding at a $500 billion valuation, while the US is set to introduce innovation exemptions for crypto, reflecting growing regulatory support for stablecoins and industry development.

Cyber Hornet ETFs has filed with the SEC to launch ETFs blending S&P 500 equities with XRP, Ethereum, and Solana, indicating regulatory openness to integrating digital assets with traditional financial products.

ASTER (ASTER): Surged 10% in 24h with $2B volume, driven by whale accumulation over $270M, viral DEX growth, and full USDT compensation after XPL perp incident.

Mantle (MNT): Rose 10.5% in 24h, defying altcoin slump; new Bybit Card partnership offers extra MNT cashback, and traders anticipate new highs in October.

MYX Finance (MYX): Gained 8.9% in 24h, with analysts citing a weakening correlation to Bitcoin and potential for a 48% price recovery as perpetuals market activity increases.

Smart Money Movements

Fifteen major wallets accumulated over 406,000 ETH worth approximately $1.6 billion within two days, involving platforms like Kraken, Galaxy Digital, BitGo, and FalconX.

A dormant Ethereum whale moved 200,000 ETH valued at $785 million after six years of inactivity, retaining a remaining balance of 736,316 ETH ($2.89 billion) across eight wallets.

Two wallets linked to Bitfinex borrowed 151 million USDT from Aave V3 after supplying 200,000 ETH ($790 million), transferring the funds to a Plasma Vault for liquidity purposes.

Two whales deposited 277,000 SOL, valued at $54.23 million, to exchanges within three hours, potentially impacting Solana's market dynamics.

BlackRock's Global Allocation Fund increased its IBIT ETF holdings by 38% since April, now owning 1,000,808 shares valued at $66.4 million.

Events to Watch

Sep 29 (Mon)

Supra will host a community call at 12:00 UTC to discuss product updates and October launches; Falcon Finance will hold a $214M Token Generation Event.

Sep 30 (Tue)

Eurozone preliminary CPI data for September will be released, impacting ECB rate cut expectations; Solana APEX Singapore and Zeta x Celestia events at Token2049.

Oct 1 (Wed)

TOKEN2049, the world’s largest crypto event, opens in Singapore; 1inch will make a major announcement; GRASS token unlock event may affect liquidity.

Oct 3 (Fri)

US Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings data for September will be released, key for global markets and crypto volatility.

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