Crypto Market Slides: BTC and ETH Drop, CHZ Surges Amid Macro Shifts

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The People's Bank of China began paying interest on digital yuan wallets, boosting CBDC adoption and liquidity. The Federal Reserve injected $74.6B in liquidity, supporting CRYPTO recovery and highlighting its influence on digital assets. Moody's expects three Fed rate cuts in early 2026, which may increase risk appetite and capital flows into CRYPTO.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin up 1.16% to $88,587.35 and Ethereum up 0.86% to $2,997.75, pressured by weak spot demand and ETF outflows. Chiliz (CHZ) led gainers, up 18.05%, followed by Story (IP) up 13.59% and MemeCore (M) up 10.96%, driven by ecosystem activity and grants. Most altcoins and major sectors, including DeFi and memes, underperformed amid risk-off sentiment.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the release of Peru's CPI data, the U.S. unemployment rate for December, and Senate hearings on the crypto market structure bill. These developments may influence market volatility and regulatory sentiment.

Fear and Greed Index

62.00% Annual Percentile

32 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.97T

0.46%

Total Market Trading Volume

$87.28B

3.07%

Altcoin Season Index

58.33%

Quarterly Percentile

19 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

2.53B

3.66%

Futures

710.47B

2.45%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The People's Bank of China began paying interest on digital yuan (e-CNY) wallet balances from January 1, 2026, triggering a $188 million surge into CBDC-related stocks. This policy shift enhances e-CNY's competitiveness versus stablecoins and could increase on-chain liquidity and DeFi adoption in Asia.

The Federal Reserve executed a $74.6 billion liquidity injection via overnight repo operations on December 31, 2025, driving Bitcoin to $89,000. This move alleviated year-end liquidity stress, supporting crypto market recovery and signaling the Fed's influence on digital asset price action.

Moody's Analytics Chief Economist forecasts three Fed rate cuts in early 2026, citing a weak labor market and inflation uncertainty. Anticipated monetary easing may boost risk appetite, potentially increasing capital flows into Bitcoin, DEFI, and altcoins as yields on traditional assets decline.

Chinese official December PMIs showed unexpected improvement, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices both above 50. This signals a stabilizing Chinese economy, which could support global risk sentiment and indirectly benefit crypto market inflows and trading activity.

Citibank projects stablecoin supply could reach $2–$4 trillion by 2030, with over 50% growth in 2025 alone. The rapid expansion of stablecoins is enhancing cross-border payments and DeFi liquidity, further integrating digital assets into global financial infrastructure.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

U.S. Senators have raised concerns that the GENIUS Act could undermine financial freedom and privacy, warning it may facilitate a tightly monitored financial system and potential CBDC surveillance, impacting investor confidence.

The U.S. Senate will review the CLARITY Act on January 15, aiming to establish clear regulatory roles for the SEC and CFTC over digital assets, which could reduce legal risks and encourage institutional participation.

Coinbase's head of research emphasized that increasing regulatory clarity in the U.S. and Europe is driving institutional adoption and product innovation, supporting deeper integration of crypto into global finance.

Citibank projects stablecoin supply could reach $2–$4 trillion by 2030, with recent regulatory frameworks accelerating institutional adoption and reshaping digital finance, potentially increasing market stability.

Chiliz (CHZ): CHZ surged over 16% in 24h, driven by renewed activity on Binance, a strong breakout above $0.043, and trading volume exceeding $88M as altcoin momentum returns.

MemeCore (M): M gained 10% in 24h, fueled by a $300M MemeMax grant, a 12.4% surge in Binance Futures activity, and bullish MACD signals, boosting ecosystem growth and liquidity.

Story (IP): IP rose 13.5% in 24h, supported by ongoing ecosystem partnerships and community engagement, though no single event or data point was identified as the main catalyst.

Smart Money Movements

A newly created wallet withdrew 5,798 ETH, worth approximately $17.24 million, from Kraken and transferred the funds to another address, signaling significant Ethereum movement.

A wallet linked to Jez deposited $2.06 million USDC into HyperLiquid and opened 20x leveraged long positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL, reflecting aggressive bullish sentiment.

Tether increased its Bitcoin reserves by acquiring 9,850 BTC in Q4 2025, bringing total holdings to 96,185 BTC with an unrealized gain of $3.524 billion, making it the fifth-largest Bitcoin wallet.

3,892 BTC, valued at $341 million, was transferred from an unknown wallet to Coinbase Institutional, indicating a potential institutional move or preparation for large-scale transactions.

BitMine Immersion Technologies acquired 32,938 ETH for $98 million on December 30, reinforcing its position as a major institutional Ethereum holder with over 4.07 million ETH.

Events to Watch

Jan 1 (Thu)

Peru CPI data release; U.S. unemployment rate for December; 50 oracle price feeds deactivated; $NAKA team tokens remain locked; Senate to hold crypto market structure bill hearings.

Jan 2 (Fri)

Philippines inflation data release; Canada jobs data for December; China CPI and PPI data release.

Jan 5 (Mon)

US manufacturing payrolls data for December will be released, providing insight into the labor market.

Jan 6 (Tue)

US nonfarm payrolls data for December; Hyperliquid to unlock 1.2 million HYPE tokens (~$31–32M) for team/core contributors.

Jan 7 (Wed)

Ethereum BPO Hard Fork scheduled, raising gas limit from 60MM to 80MM; ISM Services PMI release.

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