Crypto Market Slides as BTC, ETH Lead Broad Decline; Key US Data, ARB Unlock in Focus

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

US unemployment rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, raising volatility risks for crypto. The UK and Spain advanced crypto regulation, aiming for greater transparency and investor protection. The SEC's softer stance under Trump and Japan's regulated yen stablecoin signal a global shift toward compliant digital asset innovation.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with BTC down 4.43% to $97,474 and ETH falling 9.27% to $3,144.86, pressured by ETF outflows and weak risk sentiment. Altcoins also dropped, led by ARB (-11.73%), MYX (-13.58%), and SOL (-8.75%), while XDC outperformed with a smaller 5.56% loss. No major sector showed gains as risk-off flows dominated.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the US non-farm payroll, unemployment, and core retail sales data releases, which may drive volatility across risk assets. Arbitrum (ARB) unlocks $19.78M (1.9% supply), potentially increasing short-term token volatility. BEAM (BEAM) spot trading launches on Coinbase, expanding market access.

Fear and Greed Index

96.00% Annual Percentile

24 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.95T

3.21%

Total Market Trading Volume

$127.18B

50.58%

Altcoin Season Index

72.73%

Quarterly Percentile

21 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.92B

10.98%

Futures

745.44B

0.81%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, exceeding expectations and marking the highest level since 2021, signaling potential headwinds for risk assets and possible increased volatility in BTC and DeFi markets.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing forecasts, which may support short-term sentiment for crypto assets by indicating continued economic resilience despite labor market challenges.

U.S. federal funds futures now price a higher probability of a rate cut in January, rising from 22% to 31%, which could boost liquidity and risk appetite in the crypto market, supporting BTC and DeFi valuations.

Recent downward revisions of U.S. nonfarm payrolls for August and September by 33,000 jobs highlight a weaker labor market than previously reported, potentially increasing macro uncertainty and impacting crypto market sentiment.

U.S. Treasury Secretary announced potential $1,000–$2,000 tax refunds for Q1 2026, which may stimulate consumer spending and indirectly support crypto inflows as retail liquidity improves.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The UK Treasury is drafting legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies, aligning them with traditional financial products. The new rules, set for 2027, aim to boost consumer protection and market transparency, supporting investor confidence.

Spain's CNMV has issued guidance for crypto platforms on EU MiCA compliance, requiring authorization or cessation of operations by December 30, 2025. This enhances regulatory clarity and investor protection in the Spanish crypto market.

The SEC has warned about blockchain privacy risks, emphasizing the need for balanced regulation to prevent financial surveillance while supporting crypto innovation. This may influence compliance strategies and privacy-focused solutions.

Startale and SBI Holdings have signed an MOU to launch a regulated Japanese yen stablecoin by Q2 2026, leveraging updated payment laws. This move signals Japan's commitment to compliant digital asset innovation and cross-border payments.

Since President Trump's return, the SEC has paused or dismissed about 60% of crypto enforcement cases, signaling a more lenient regulatory approach that could encourage market participation but raises concerns about oversight.

PIPPIN (PIPPIN): PIPPIN surged over 34% in 24h, breaking a new all-time high at $0.50 after a short squeeze, with open interest hitting record levels and strong bullish momentum.

XDC Network (XDC): XDC rose 52% in 24h, driven by recent mainnet upgrade to XDC 2.0, enhanced security, and new institutional partnerships expanding real-world asset tokenization.

MYX Finance (MYX): MYX gained over 1% in 24h, with trading volume exceeding $43M. Recent price rallies are attributed to short squeezes and increased derivatives trading activity.

Smart Money Movements

A Bitcoin whale opened a $86 million long position with 3x leverage at $86,302, incurring a $329,000 unrealized loss as price dipped to $85,973 within 10 hours.

BlackRock transferred 47,463 ETH, valued at $140 million, to Coinbase, signaling significant institutional movement and potential portfolio rebalancing.

American Bitcoin increased its Bitcoin reserves to over 5,098 BTC as of December 14, 2025, and announced plans to continue strategic accumulation.

A wallet linked to Lido founder Konstantin Lomashuk sold 14,585 ETH for $42.71 million at $2,928 per ETH, highlighting major profit-taking activity.

Bitwise Solana ETF (BSOL) attracted $674 million in inflows over 33 consecutive days, despite Solana's price dropping 55% from its peak, reflecting sustained institutional confidence.

Events to Watch

Dec 16 (Tue)

US non-farm payroll, unemployment rate, and core retail sales data will be released; Bank of England and Bank of Japan rate decisions may impact global markets; Arbitrum (ARB) unlocks $19.78M (1.9% supply); Beam (BEAM) spot trading launches on Coinbase; CLORE announces ERC-20 migration details.

Dec 17 (Wed)

UK November CPI inflation data will be published, crucial for Bank of England policy; Aster (ASTER) unlocks 320,000 tokens ($262,720, 0.01% market cap).

Dec 18 (Thu)

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released, providing key inflation insights for markets.

Table of Contents