Crypto Market Slides as BTC, ETH Drop; US PCE Data and ETF Flows in Focus

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December have surged, fueling a crypto market rebound. The cancellation of the US Q3 GDP estimate has heightened market uncertainty and volatility. The SEC's streamlined ETF approval process and constructive regulatory signals are boosting institutional confidence in digital assets.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw a sharp pullback, with BTC down 4.4% to $97,474 and ETH dropping 9.3% to $3,144, driven by persistent ETF outflows and risk-off sentiment. Most major altcoins declined, led by SOL (-8.7%), XRP (-8.6%), and KAS (-7.7%), while QNT bucked the trend, rising 4.4% on interoperability momentum. Institutional outflows and thin liquidity amplified volatility.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the US PCE Price Index release, critical for Fed rate expectations, and Coinbase launching spot trading for FLUID and WMTX. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also set to announce a widely anticipated 25bps rate cut, potentially impacting global risk sentiment.

Fear and Greed Index

98.00% Annual Percentile

15 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.02T

0.38%

Total Market Trading Volume

$139.27B

12.92%

Altcoin Season Index

27.27%

Quarterly Percentile

25 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

4.64B

3.32%

Futures

785.39B

1.86%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has surged to over 80%, driving a sharp rebound in Bitcoin to $87,000 and boosting overall crypto market capitalization above $3 trillion.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis canceled the Q3 2025 GDP advance estimate due to a 43-day government shutdown, creating uncertainty in financial markets and increasing volatility in crypto trading.

U.S. October budget deficit reached $284 billion, exceeding expectations and fueling risk-on sentiment in crypto markets, as investors anticipate looser monetary policy and increased liquidity.

Australia's October CPI rose to 3.8% year-over-year, above forecasts, causing the Reserve Bank of Australia to delay expected rate cuts, which supported the Australian dollar and limited crypto inflows from the region.

Recent U.S. economic data, including subdued retail sales and wholesale inflation, reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, supporting bullish sentiment and increased leverage in the crypto sector.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The SEC has granted a no-action letter to Solana-based DePIN project Fuse, allowing it to distribute its FUSE token with regulatory protection. This signals a more constructive U.S. regulatory approach, boosting market confidence for compliant DePIN and utility token projects.

Franklin Templeton and Grayscale have launched XRP-backed ETFs on NYSE Arca, marking a major step for altcoin integration into regulated U.S. markets. This move enhances institutional access to XRP and may drive broader acceptance of altcoin ETFs.

VanEck amended its proposed spot BNB ETF filing, removing staking features to improve chances of SEC approval. This reflects a cautious approach by issuers to meet U.S. regulatory standards, potentially accelerating the listing of new altcoin ETFs.

The SEC's new post-shutdown guidelines clarify ETF registration processes, enabling faster approval for crypto ETFs under generic listing standards. This regulatory streamlining is expected to increase the pace of new ETF launches and support market expansion.

A U.S. bank has begun piloting stablecoin issuance on the Stellar blockchain, in partnership with PwC and the Stellar Development Foundation. This initiative explores regulated stablecoin use in banking, potentially increasing institutional adoption of blockchain-based payments.

Monad (MON): Monad (MON) surged 48.7% in 24h with $1.19B volume, driven by its mainnet launch, strong funding, and EVM compatibility, positioning it as a high-throughput Layer 1 challenger.

Kaspa (KAS): Kaspa (KAS) rose 11.8% in 24h with $112M volume, supported by its scalable PoW Layer 1 architecture and recent network upgrades increasing block rate to 10 BPS.

Quant (QNT): Quant (QNT) gained 11.6% in 24h with $35M volume, fueled by renewed interest in interoperability solutions and increased developer activity on its Overledger network.

Smart Money Movements

Metaplanet secured a $130 million loan backed by Bitcoin reserves, raising its total credit facility usage to $230 million, with funds allocated for further BTC purchases and income strategies.

A whale executed a 20,000 BTC bullish condor options strategy on Deribit, representing a $1.7 billion bet that Bitcoin would end the year between $106,000 and $112,000.

A cryptocurrency whale re-entered the market after three months, purchasing 1,110 ETH for $3.25 million at $2,933 per ETH, while still holding $67.8 million DAI for potential further acquisitions.

Bitmine acquired 28,625 ETH valued at $82.11 million, increasing its total digital asset holdings to $11.8 billion, including 3,629,701 ETH and 192 BTC.

BlackRock deposited 4,471 BTC worth $390.8 million into Coinbase, signaling continued institutional activity in the digital asset market.

Events to Watch

Nov 26 (Wed)

US PCE Price Index for September 2025 releases, key for Fed rate outlook; RBNZ to announce expected 25bps rate cut; Coinbase launches spot trading for FLUID and WMTX.

Nov 27 (Thu)

Kinetiq (KNTQ) Token Generation Event (TGE) launches, drawing attention in the DeFi and token markets.

Nov 28 (Fri)

Eurozone November inflation data releases, potentially impacting EUR and crypto markets; Tectum Cash Token (TCT) IDO launches on KingdomStarter.

Nov 29 (Sat)

Hyperliquid (HYPE) unlocks 10M tokens (~$314M, 3.6% supply), raising market impact concerns.

Dec 2 (Tue)

Vechain (VET) network upgrade at block 23414400; Hyperliquid Strategies launches with $300M HYPE buy; Aztec Network (AZTEC) token auction begins.

III. Phemex Market Focus

New Listings

Nov 24: (MON/USDT)

Monad is a high-performance, Layer 1 blockchain that aims to address the scalability limitations of existing networks, particularly Ethereum, while maintaining full compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).

Nov 22: (BOB/USDT)

BOBUSDT futures pair is linear USDT-margined and supports hedge mode, allowing both long and short positions simultaneously.

Table of Contents