Crypto Market Slides as BTC, ETH Drop; US Macro Data and Regulation in Focus

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady after weak US jobs data, dampening immediate rate cut hopes. The US dollar has strengthened amid slower job growth and anticipation of a Supreme Court tariff ruling, increasing crypto market volatility. Regulatory focus intensifies as the US Senate prepares to review the CLARITY Act, aiming to clarify digital asset rules and boost institutional confidence.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin down 4.43% to $97,474 and Ethereum falling 9.27% to $3,144.86, pressured by weak risk sentiment and ETF outflows. Altcoins also dropped, with Stacks down 10.96%, POL down 7.48%, and XRP down 8.61%. MORPHO outperformed, limiting losses to 1.51%, supported by DeFi integration news.

Today's Outlook

Today, US Initial Jobless Claims and key manufacturing indexes will be released, potentially impacting market sentiment and volatility. Traders should monitor macro data closely, as these indicators may influence short-term crypto price action and risk appetite.

Fear and Greed Index

4.00% Annual Percentile

41 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.09T

0.07%

Total Market Trading Volume

$76.14B

23.41%

Altcoin Season Index

75.00%

Quarterly Percentile

37 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

2.64B

2.73%

Futures

621.34B

6.07%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hold at the January FOMC meeting surged to 97.2% after weaker-than-expected December jobs data, reducing immediate rate cut expectations and leading to short-term pressure on Bitcoin and DeFi liquidity.

The U.S. dollar strengthened following slower December jobs growth and anticipation of a Supreme Court tariff ruling, increasing volatility in crypto markets as traders adjust to shifting macroeconomic signals.

Bitcoin is consolidating around $90,000 as investors await key U.S. policy decisions, including Federal Reserve leadership and tariff outcomes, with macroeconomic uncertainty dampening momentum and impacting digital asset flows.

The upcoming release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and multiple Federal Reserve official speeches this week are expected to influence market sentiment, with potential effects on Bitcoin price action and DeFi market activity.

A pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs could trigger significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with analysts warning of possible sharp moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices depending on the outcome.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The US Senate Banking Committee will hold a markup on the CLARITY Act on January 15, aiming to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, which could significantly reduce market manipulation and boost institutional confidence.

Colombia's tax authority has enforced new rules requiring crypto service providers to report user and transaction data, aligning with OECD standards to combat tax evasion and increase regulatory oversight in the digital asset sector.

Hong Kong's Financial Secretary emphasized a cautious approach to gold-backed stablecoins, highlighting the need for robust regulation and investor education to ensure market integrity and mitigate risks.

Over forty countries are advancing crypto taxation efforts, reflecting a global trend toward stricter regulation and compliance, which may impact investor behavior and market transparency.

Ripple has secured crucial FCA registration, granting it access to the UK crypto market and signaling increased regulatory acceptance, which could enhance investor confidence and market participation.

Polygon (POL): Polygon surged 16.1% in 24h to $0.1738, driven by network upgrades, record usage, and fee increases, with trading volume over $502M.

Stacks (STX): Stacks rose 11.6% in 24h to $0.3862, with $51.7M volume, supported by renewed market interest in Bitcoin L2 smart contract platforms.

MORPHO (MORPHO): MORPHO gained 6.1% in 24h to $1.29, as SafePal integrated Morpho Vaults and launched a rewards program, boosting DeFi lending activity.

Smart Money Movements

A crypto whale deposited 26,000 ETH, worth $80.16 million, into Bitstamp, realizing a potential profit of $63 million from coins bought at $660.

A whale accumulated 410,183 LINK tokens from Binance over two days, increasing their LINK holdings to approximately $5.41 million after a previous $10.95 million liquidation.

Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $94.73 million on January 9, with BlackRock's $ETHA leading the withdrawals at $84.69 million.

F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun transferred 4,000 ETH, valued at about $12.37 million, to Binance, indicating active large-scale movement of Ethereum.

An investor's $68,240 purchase of 30.36 million $WHITEWHALE tokens 27 days ago grew to $4.48 million as the token's market cap surpassed $140 million.

Events to Watch

Jan 10 (Sat)

US Initial Jobless Claims, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January to be released.

Jan 11 (Sun)

Aptos: 11.31M APT unlock (0.73% of supply, ~$110M); LOOK Sunday Community Space at 7 PM UTC.

Jan 12 (Mon)

Qtum hard fork to Bitcoin 29.1 and Ethereum Pectra; Optimism hosts Token Buyback Space at 12:00 EST.

Jan 14 (Wed)

Mantle Mainnet V1.4.2 release; Cheelee: 20.81M CHEEL unlock (2.78% of supply); Recall airdrop claim deadline.

Jan 15 (Thu)

Sei: 55.56M SEI unlock (1.05% of supply); Starknet: 127M STRK unlock (4.83% of supply); US Initial Jobless Claims, NY Empire State, and Philadelphia Fed Indexes released.

Jan 16 (Fri)

Arbitrum: 92.65M ARB unlock (1.86% of supply, likely >$100M); Ravencoin halving event.

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