Crypto Market Slides as BTC, ETH Drop; Macro and ETF Flows Drive Volatility

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Expectations for US Fed rate cuts in 2026 are rising as labor market data cools and Treasury yields fall, supporting risk assets. Regulatory clarity advances with Morgan Stanley's ETF filings and the upcoming Senate vote on the CLARITY Act. Moody's projects stablecoins to become core market infrastructure, highlighting the need for robust regulation.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 4.43% to $97,474 and Ethereum falling 9.27% to $3,144.86, pressured by ETF outflows and weak risk sentiment. Major altcoins like Solana (-8.75%), Arbitrum (-11.73%), and FET (-12.59%) also dropped sharply, while sector-wide risk-off flows dominated. No major sector outperformed, and negative momentum was driven by declining spot demand and macro uncertainty.

Today's Outlook

BUIDL Europe 2026 opens in Lisbon, gathering blockchain builders and founders for a two-day technical conference, likely to drive ecosystem news and networking. Spur Protocol SON launches its DeFi IDO on KingdomStarter, potentially attracting DeFi-focused capital and attention to new project launches.

Fear and Greed Index

8.00% Annual Percentile

49 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.16T

1.73%

Total Market Trading Volume

$136.90B

10.33%

Altcoin Season Index

54.55%

Quarterly Percentile

23 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.23B

3.51%

Futures

681.72B

22.00%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The U.S. private sector added only 41,000 jobs in December, signaling a cooling labor market that may increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially supporting Bitcoin and DEFI liquidity.

U.S. Treasury yields declined as investors await key economic data, with money markets now pricing in two Fed rate cuts in 2026, a trend that could boost risk appetite and drive capital into crypto assets.

Australia's November CPI inflation slowed to 3.4% year-over-year, below expectations, reducing pressure for immediate RBA tightening and supporting a risk-on environment favorable for crypto market flows.

The crypto market rebounded in early 2026 as BTC and ETH surged, reflecting improved macro sentiment and expectations of looser monetary policy, which enhances DeFi and NFT market activity.

Bitwise CIO highlighted that maintaining U.S. stock market stability is crucial for sustaining the crypto rally, as equity downturns could trigger broad risk-off moves impacting BTC and altcoin valuations.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Morgan Stanley has filed with the SEC to launch spot Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, signaling growing institutional acceptance and likely boosting investor confidence in regulated crypto products.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a markup vote on the CLARITY Act on January 16, aiming to clarify SEC and CFTC oversight of digital assets, which could reduce regulatory uncertainty for the crypto market.

Moody's forecasts stablecoins will become core market infrastructure by 2026, with settlement volumes expected to reach $9 trillion in 2025, highlighting the need for regulatory clarity and security for institutional adoption.

RAKBANK has received conditional approval from the UAE Central Bank to issue a Dirham-pegged stablecoin, advancing regulated digital asset innovation and potentially improving cross-border payment efficiency in the region.

The IRS reminds U.S. taxpayers that all crypto transactions, including stablecoins and NFTs, must be reported for the 2025 tax year, reflecting stricter enforcement and increased compliance requirements for digital asset holders.

MemeCore (M): MemeCore rose 2.74% in 24h, reaching $1.67 with $14.6M volume. The project leverages a novel Proof of Meme consensus and community-centric rewards, driving recent market attention.

MYX Finance (MYX): MYX Finance gained 3.01% in 24h, trading at $5.07 with $25.2M volume. The protocol's cross-chain derivatives and recent upgrades to support 20+ networks have boosted trading activity.

TRON (TRX): TRON increased 1.04% in 24h, with $597.8M volume. Ongoing ecosystem expansion and high throughput (2,000 TPS) continue to attract developers and users, supporting price momentum.

Smart Money Movements

Metaplanet acquired $451 million in Bitcoin between October and December, raising its total holdings to $3.78 billion and becoming the fourth-largest corporate BTC holder.

Riot Platforms sold 1,818 BTC in December, reducing its Bitcoin holdings to 18,005 BTC, as part of a liquidity and operational cost management strategy.

Upexi increased its Solana holdings by 67,594 SOL, bringing its total to 2,174,583 SOL valued over $300 million, and announced a share buyback of 416,226 shares.

Bit Digital reported holding 155,227.3 ETH worth $460.5 million as of December 31, 2025, with 89% of its ETH staked, generating 389.6 ETH in rewards.

A whale wallet accumulated 3,000 BTC worth approximately $280 million in the past 10 hours, highlighting ongoing large-scale Bitcoin accumulation.

Events to Watch

Jan 7 (Wed)

BUIDL Europe 2026 opens in Lisbon, gathering blockchain builders and founders for a two-day technical conference; Spur Protocol SON launches DeFi IDO on KingdomStarter.

Jan 9 (Fri)

The U.S. December jobs report will be released, providing key data for Federal Reserve policy outlook.

Jan 10 (Sat)

Ranger ICO and Infinex token sale both conclude, potentially impacting token supply and market sentiment.

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