Crypto Market Slides as BTC, ETH Drop; HYPE Token Unlock Looms

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady, supporting crypto market liquidity. The SEC and CFTC now have all-Republican leadership, accelerating crypto-friendly regulation. Turkey's persistent inflation above 30% may drive local demand for BTC and stablecoins as a hedge.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 24 hours, with BTC down 4.43% to $97,474 and ETH falling 9.27% to $3,144.86, pressured by weak risk sentiment and ETF outflows. Altcoins also dropped, with VIRTUAL (-8.77%), RENDER (-8.67%), and STX (-10.96%) among the hardest hit, while HYPE slid 3.60% ahead of a major token unlock.

Today's Outlook

Today, 12.46 million HYPE tokens ($328M, 3.61% of supply) will be unlocked, potentially impacting market liquidity and price. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin's speech on the economic outlook may also influence risk sentiment across crypto and traditional markets.

Fear and Greed Index

20.00% Annual Percentile

42 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.20T

1.85%

Total Market Trading Volume

$130.45B

58.59%

Altcoin Season Index

72.73%

Quarterly Percentile

25 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.12B

18.14%

Futures

860.91B

7.24%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with an 82.8% probability, maintaining a cautious stance as markets await further economic data. This stability supports current liquidity conditions in crypto markets and may limit volatility in BTC and DeFi yields.

Shandong province issued China's first local government bonds of 2026, launching a nationwide infrastructure push with CNY72.3 billion in new funding. This front-loaded fiscal stimulus is likely to boost domestic demand, indirectly supporting crypto trading volumes and on-chain activity in Asia.

The People's Bank of China set the USD/CNY central rate at 7.0230, signaling a preference for currency stability. This move helps anchor capital flows and reduces FX-driven volatility, which can influence stablecoin demand and cross-border crypto settlements.

High-grade US corporate bond sales reached $37 billion on the first Monday of 2026, the busiest day since September. Increased corporate funding activity reflects strong risk appetite, which can spill over into digital asset markets, supporting higher DeFi TVL and token valuations.

Turkey's annual inflation rate hit 30.89% in December, with housing costs up nearly 50%. Persistent inflationary pressures in emerging markets may drive local investors toward crypto assets as a hedge, potentially increasing BTC and stablecoin adoption in the region.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The SEC and CFTC are now under full Republican control after the departure of Democratic commissioner Caroline Crenshaw, accelerating crypto-friendly regulatory initiatives and potentially easing compliance for digital asset firms.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee has begun bipartisan discussions on the CLARITY Act, which could grant the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over digital commodity spot markets, signaling a major shift in U.S. crypto regulation.

Goldman Sachs highlights that improved regulatory clarity in the U.S. is driving increased institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, with upcoming market structure legislation expected to further boost market confidence and capital inflows.

Japan's Financial Services Agency plans to reclassify 105 cryptocurrencies as financial products in 2026, aiming to integrate digital assets into mainstream financial markets and strengthen regulatory oversight.

PwC is expanding its crypto audit and consulting services in response to new U.S. stablecoin and tokenization rules, reflecting a broader trend of traditional firms deepening engagement as regulatory risks decrease.

Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL): VIRTUAL surged nearly 20% in 24h, driven by anticipation for its decentralized AI agent marketplace launch and a 136% spike in trading volume to $343M, making it the top gainer.

RENDER Network (RENDER): RENDER climbed over 18% in 24h, leading the AI token rally with a weekly gain of 66%, as capital rotated into decentralized GPU compute projects amid renewed AI sector interest.

Stacks (STX): STX rose nearly 12% in 24h, breaking out from consolidation with strong momentum and volume, as technical traders targeted $0.40 on bullish structure and sustained buyer control.

Smart Money Movements

MicroStrategy purchased 1,287 BTC for $116 million between December 29 and January 4, increasing its total Bitcoin holdings to 673,783 BTC.

Bitcoin whales accumulated over 56,000 BTC since December 17, while retail investors took profits, indicating renewed large-holder confidence.

A crypto whale known as "BTC OG Insider Whale" held $818 million in long positions, with $20.77 million in profits across ETH, BTC, and SOL.

Bitmine acquired 32,977 ETH worth $104 million last week, raising its total Ethereum holdings to 4,143,502 ETH, valued at $13.08 billion.

A new wallet deposited $5 million USDC into HyperLiquid and opened $28.2 million in leveraged long positions on LINK and DOGE, currently facing a $600,000 floating loss.

Events to Watch

Jan 6 (Tue)

HYPE will unlock 12.46 million tokens ($328M, 3.61% of supply); Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks on economic outlook.

Jan 7 (Wed)

Eurozone releases December inflation data, key for ECB policy; US ADP employment, ISM Services PMI, and JOLTS job openings data to be published.

Jan 8 (Thu)

US initial jobless claims and consumer credit data will be released, providing insight into labor market and economic stress.

Jan 9 (Fri)

US Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor market data released; Movement (MOVE) unlocks $6.13M tokens (5.81% of market value); LAVA unlocks $20.8M tokens (54.2% of supply).

III. Phemex Market Focus

New Listings

Jan 05: (ZIG/USDT)

ZIGChain(ZIG) is now available for spot trading with the ZIG/USDT pair.

Jan 05: (BTG/USDT)

Openverse Network(BTG) is listed in the Spot Innovation Zone with the BTG/USDT pair.

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