Crypto Market Slides as BTC, ETH Drop; Fed Decision and Major Token Unlocks Ahead

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, maintaining a cautious stance amid global uncertainty. The US Senate advanced a major crypto regulatory bill, while the SEC and CFTC launched coordinated efforts to clarify digital asset rules. Geopolitical risks and upcoming US and Eurozone economic data continue to drive market sentiment.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with BTC down 5.97% to $83,522 and ETH falling 6.86% to $2,792.76, pressured by ETF outflows and weak risk appetite. Altcoins also dropped, with HYPE (-11.73%), FET (-8.03%), and ARB (-6.81%) among the largest losers, as risk-off flows and supply unlocks weighed on sentiment.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the US unemployment rate and Fed policy decision, both likely to impact market volatility. Eurozone Q4 GDP and CPI data, plus Japan's Tokyo CPI, will shape global risk sentiment. Filecoin Onchain Cloud mainnet launch and Kamino's 3.55% token unlock may drive sector-specific moves.

Fear and Greed Index

26.00% Annual Percentile

38 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.86T

4.99%

Total Market Trading Volume

$156.41B

49.27%

Altcoin Season Index

66.67%

Quarterly Percentile

31 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.67B

1.45%

Futures

603.28B

5.48%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The European Central Bank highlighted the digital euro as essential for Europe's strategic autonomy, aiming to reduce reliance on non-European payment systems. This move could increase demand for euro-denominated stablecoins and impact DeFi euro liquidity.

SWIFT announced a new global payments scheme for 2026, promising faster and more predictable cross-border transfers. Enhanced payment efficiency may challenge blockchain-based remittance solutions and affect crypto settlement volumes.

Gold and cryptocurrencies experienced high volatility as global markets reacted to US-Iran tensions and US government shutdown fears. Safe-haven flows and risk-off sentiment drove sharp moves in BTC and DeFi TVL.

President Trump declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs on oil suppliers to Cuba, causing a surge in gold prices. Such trade actions can increase market volatility and influence BTC as a macro hedge asset.

The White House and Senate Democrats reached a deal to prevent a US government shutdown, reducing immediate fiscal uncertainty. This stabilization may support risk assets, including crypto, by alleviating short-term macro risk.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The US Senate Agriculture Committee has advanced the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, granting the CFTC new authority over digital assets. This marks a historic step toward a federal crypto regulatory framework, boosting market confidence but highlighting ongoing partisan divides.

The SEC has issued new guidance clarifying that tokenized securities remain subject to existing federal securities laws, regardless of blockchain issuance. This move removes legal ambiguity and may accelerate institutional adoption of tokenized assets.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has delayed the release of the 'crypto innovation exemption' for tokenized securities and DeFi, citing the need for further study and pending congressional action. The delay introduces regulatory uncertainty, potentially dampening short-term innovation.

The SEC and CFTC have announced coordinated efforts under 'Project Crypto' to harmonize digital asset regulation, aiming to resolve overlapping jurisdiction and provide clearer rules. This collaboration is expected to reduce regulatory uncertainty and support onshore crypto innovation.

Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Citadel, have raised concerns to the SEC about the economic impact of the proposed crypto innovation exemption, influencing the regulator's cautious approach and signaling heightened industry engagement in rulemaking.

Hyperliquid (HYPE): Hyperliquid saw a 37.9% surge in 24h, driven by high trading volume ($796M) and strong user growth after its Layer 1 blockchain and on-chain order book upgrades.

PAX Gold (PAXG): PAXG rose 5.2% in 24h, reaching a new all-time high of $5,622.81, fueled by increased demand for gold-backed tokens amid global market volatility and $1.1B trading volume.

Tether Gold (XAUT): XAUT gained 5.1% in 24h, hitting a record $5,597.10, as investors sought safe-haven assets; 24h trading volume spiked to $966M, reflecting strong institutional interest.

Smart Money Movements

Whale '0xFB7' purchased 20,000 ETH for $56.03 million from FalconX, raising total holdings to 110,154 ETH valued at $311.26 million in staking.

A mysterious entity prepared to deploy $10 billion in assets across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major altcoins, using large dormant stablecoin deposits to influence market volatility.

Pudgy Penguins transferred over 145 million PENGU tokens worth $13.23 million to two anonymous addresses, signaling significant NFT treasury movement.

The '1011 Insider Whale' address faced a floating loss of $81.5 million during the market downturn, including a $53 million loss within two hours.

Trend Research, led by Yi Lihua, held 651,300 ETH valued at $1.92 billion, facing an unrealized loss of $214.9 million with an average cost of $3,180 per ETH.

Events to Watch

Jan 30 (Fri)

U.S. unemployment rate and employment report for January to be released at 8:30 am; Federal Reserve policy decision and press conference scheduled.

Jan 30 (Fri)

Eurozone Q4 GDP and CPI data to be published; Japan Tokyo CPI for January released; US government shutdown deadline approaches.

Jan 30 (Fri)

Filecoin Onchain Cloud mainnet launches, expanding decentralized storage to programmable cloud; Kamino (KMNO) unlocks 3.55% of circulating supply.

Jan 31 (Sat)

China to release official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data, key for global risk sentiment and crypto market direction.

Feb 2 (Mon)

US ISM Manufacturing PMI for January and US Treasury quarterly borrowing announcement, both critical for USD index and crypto asset volatility.

III. Phemex Market Focus

New Listings

Jan 29: (QQQON/USDT)

Introducing Invesco QQQ Ondo Tokenized (QQQON) for spot trading. Trading starts at 10:00 UTC on January 29, 2026.

Jan 29: (SPYON/USDT)

Introducing SPDR S&P 500 ETF Ondo Tokenized (SPYON) for spot trading. Trading starts at 10:00 UTC on January 29, 2026.

Jan 29: (MSTRON/USDT)

Introducing MicroStrategy Ondo Tokenized (MSTRON) for spot trading. Trading starts at 10:00 UTC on January 29, 2026.

Jan 29: (AMDON/USDT)

Introducing AMD Ondo Tokenized (AMDON) for spot trading. Trading starts at 10:00 UTC on January 29, 2026.

Jan 29: (MSFTON/USDT)

Introducing Microsoft Ondo Tokenized (MSFTON) for spot trading. Trading starts at 10:00 UTC on January 29, 2026.

Table of Contents

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Crypto Market

Today's Outlook

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The European Central Bank highlighted the digital euro as essential for Europe's strategic autonomy, aiming to reduce reliance on non-European payment systems. This move could increase demand for euro-denominated stablecoins and impact DeFi euro liquidity.

SWIFT announced a new global payments scheme for 2026, promising faster and more predictable cross-border transfers. Enhanced payment efficiency may challenge blockchain-based remittance solutions and affect crypto settlement volumes.

Gold and cryptocurrencies experienced high volatility as global markets reacted to US-Iran tensions and US government shutdown fears. Safe-haven flows and risk-off sentiment drove sharp moves in BTC and DeFi TVL.

President Trump declared a national emergency and imposed tariffs on oil suppliers to Cuba, causing a surge in gold prices. Such trade actions can increase market volatility and influence BTC as a macro hedge asset.

The White House and Senate Democrats reached a deal to prevent a US government shutdown, reducing immediate fiscal uncertainty. This stabilization may support risk assets, including crypto, by alleviating short-term macro risk.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The US Senate Agriculture Committee has advanced the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, granting the CFTC new authority over digital assets. This marks a historic step toward a federal crypto regulatory framework, boosting market confidence but highlighting ongoing partisan divides.

The SEC has issued new guidance clarifying that tokenized securities remain subject to existing federal securities laws, regardless of blockchain issuance. This move removes legal ambiguity and may accelerate institutional adoption of tokenized assets.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has delayed the release of the 'crypto innovation exemption' for tokenized securities and DeFi, citing the need for further study and pending congressional action. The delay introduces regulatory uncertainty, potentially dampening short-term innovation.

The SEC and CFTC have announced coordinated efforts under 'Project Crypto' to harmonize digital asset regulation, aiming to resolve overlapping jurisdiction and provide clearer rules. This collaboration is expected to reduce regulatory uncertainty and support onshore crypto innovation.

Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Citadel, have raised concerns to the SEC about the economic impact of the proposed crypto innovation exemption, influencing the regulator's cautious approach and signaling heightened industry engagement in rulemaking.

Trending Tokens

Hyperliquid (HYPE): Hyperliquid saw a 37.9% surge in 24h, driven by high trading volume ($796M) and strong user growth after its Layer 1 blockchain and on-chain order book upgrades.

PAX Gold (PAXG): PAXG rose 5.2% in 24h, reaching a new all-time high of $5,622.81, fueled by increased demand for gold-backed tokens amid global market volatility and $1.1B trading volume.

Tether Gold (XAUT): XAUT gained 5.1% in 24h, hitting a record $5,597.10, as investors sought safe-haven assets; 24h trading volume spiked to $966M, reflecting strong institutional interest.

Smart Money Movements

Whale '0xFB7' purchased 20,000 ETH for $56.03 million from FalconX, raising total holdings to 110,154 ETH valued at $311.26 million in staking.

A mysterious entity prepared to deploy $10 billion in assets across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major altcoins, using large dormant stablecoin deposits to influence market volatility.

Pudgy Penguins transferred over 145 million PENGU tokens worth $13.23 million to two anonymous addresses, signaling significant NFT treasury movement.

The '1011 Insider Whale' address faced a floating loss of $81.5 million during the market downturn, including a $53 million loss within two hours.

Trend Research, led by Yi Lihua, held 651,300 ETH valued at $1.92 billion, facing an unrealized loss of $214.9 million with an average cost of $3,180 per ETH.

Events to Watch

Jan 30 (Fri)

Jan 30 (Fri)

Jan 30 (Fri)

Jan 31 (Sat)

Feb 2 (Mon)

III. Phemex Market Focus

New Listings

Phemex Promotions