I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

1.

Macro Environment

Expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate cut are intensifying, with moderating inflation and a weaker dollar supporting risk assets. The CFTC's approval of spot and leveraged crypto trading on regulated US exchanges marks a regulatory milestone. The IMF warns that fragmented stablecoin regulation poses systemic risks, urging global coordination to safeguard financial stability.
2.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 4.43% to $97,474 and Ethereum dropping 9.27% to $3,144.86, pressured by ETF outflows and weak spot demand. Altcoins also fell, with Solana down 8.75%, Mantle down 8.71%, and PAX Gold relatively stable at -0.20%. The downturn was driven by risk-off sentiment and capital rotation following recent macro and regulatory developments.
3.

Today's Outlook

ConsumerFi Protocol (CFI) will hold its Token Generation Event (TGE) today, introducing a new DeFi asset to the market. This event may attract attention from DeFi participants and could influence liquidity and trading activity in the sector.
Fear and Greed Index
64.00% Annual Percentile
25 Fear
Total Crypto Market Cap
$3.04T
3.02%
Total Market Trading Volume
$134.62B
1.51%
Altcoin Season Index
16.67%
Quarterly Percentile
21 / 100
Total Futures Market Open Interest
4.29B
6.89%
Futures
754.65B
3.55%
Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

1.

Polymarket users now assign a 94% probability to a Federal Reserve rate cut on Tuesday, signaling strong market expectations for imminent monetary easing. This anticipation is boosting risk appetite and could increase Bitcoin and DeFi liquidity as borrowing costs are expected to fall.

2.

The US core PCE inflation index rose 0.2% in September, with annual core inflation at 2.8%, slightly below expectations. This moderation in inflation strengthens the case for a Fed rate cut, supporting bullish sentiment in crypto markets and potentially driving capital inflows into Bitcoin and altcoins.

3.

The US dollar index (DXY) has declined to 98.93 ahead of the Fed's preferred PCE inflation data, while the euro has reached a three-week high. Dollar weakness typically enhances crypto market liquidity and can drive up BTC and DeFi asset prices as investors seek alternative stores of value.

4.

USDT dominance has risen to 6.07, reflecting increased risk aversion in the crypto market as traders hedge against Bitcoin volatility. This shift in stablecoin preference can impact DeFi yields and liquidity pools, influencing short-term trading strategies across the crypto ecosystem.

5.

The S&P 500 is nearing a new all-time high, fueled by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and moderating inflation. A bullish equities environment often correlates with increased institutional interest in crypto assets, supporting higher trading volumes and potential price appreciation for BTC and ETH.

1.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved spot and leveraged spot crypto trading on federally regulated exchanges, marking a major regulatory milestone that enhances institutional access and strengthens investor protections.

2.

Italy's financial regulator CONSOB has set December 30, 2025, as the final deadline for crypto firms to apply for MiCA authorization or exit the market, increasing regulatory certainty but pressuring non-compliant platforms and investors.

3.

A new CertiK policy report highlights that recent U.S. legislation, including the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts, has established clearer standards for stablecoin issuance, digital asset classification, and custody, supporting broader institutional adoption.

4.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that fragmented national stablecoin regulations pose systemic risks, urging stronger macroeconomic policies and international coordination to safeguard financial stability and monetary sovereignty.

5.

Poland's parliament failed to override a presidential veto on MiCA-aligned crypto regulations, prolonging legal uncertainty for local crypto businesses and potentially disadvantaging the Polish market within the EU.

1.

MemeCore (M): MemeCore surged to the top gainer spot with a 24-hour volume of $21.25M and a market cap of $1.36B, driven by renewed meme coin sector interest and strong South Korean trading activity.

2.

Mantle (MNT): Mantle posted a 24-hour volume of $129.8M and a $3.47B market cap, boosted by recent integrations with Bybit and Backed, expanding tokenized equity and DeFi access for over 70M users.

3.

PAX Gold (PAXG): PAX Gold saw a 24-hour volume of $140.87M and a $1.43B market cap, benefiting from rising demand for gold-backed tokens as gold prices hit new highs and institutions seek safe-haven assets.

Smart Money Movements

1.

A dormant Bitcoin whale transferred 1,000 BTC worth approximately $89 million after 14 years of inactivity, marking a significant on-chain movement within the last 24 hours.

2.

Two Satoshi-era Bitcoin wallets, inactive since 2011 and 2012, moved a total of 2,000 BTC on December 5, with the funds valued at over $178 million, sparking market speculation.

3.

Bit Digital Inc. reported holding 154,398.7 ETH valued at $461.9 million as of November 30, 2025, having acquired 506.25 ETH in November and staking 137,621 ETH for a 3.05% annualized yield.

4.

Bitmine purchased 41,946 ETH, valued at approximately $130.78 million, in a single transaction, highlighting continued large-scale institutional accumulation of Ethereum.

5.

A whale staked 24,000 ETH, worth $75.94 million, after holding for five months and realizing a profit of $15.2 million, demonstrating significant smart money activity in Ethereum staking.

Events to Watch

Dec 6 (Sat)

ConsumerFi Protocol (CFI) will hold its Token Generation Event (TGE), introducing a new DeFi asset to the market.

Dec 8 (Mon)

Vertcoin (VTC) will undergo a halving event; Enjin Coin (ENJ) will implement the Sentosa Upgrade, and Space and Time will unlock 1.59% of its token supply.

Dec 9 (Tue)

The U.S. Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting, with markets anticipating a potential interest rate cut; Jupiter (WET) will hold its Token Generation Event.

Dec 10 (Wed)

Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision, widely expected to cut rates by 25bps; 1.38 billion LINEA tokens (~$12.2M) will be unlocked, potentially impacting market liquidity; Celo (CELO) will undergo the Final Jello Hardfork.

III. Phemex Market Focus

New Listings

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