Crypto Market Slides as Bitcoin ETF Outflows and Token Unlocks Weigh on Sentiment

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% this week, maintaining liquidity and risk sentiment. Renewed US-Canada trade tensions and a surge in GOLD above $5,000 highlight rising geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand. Europe’s major banks plan a euro stablecoin, signaling regulatory focus on digital assets.

Crypto Market

The crypto market declined over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 1.79% to $87,507 and Ethereum falling 2.60% to $2,873. Most major altcoins, including Solana (-4.42%), BNB (-1.29%), and XRP (-1.49%), also dropped. Pump.fun (-8.15%) and Canton Network (-5.07%) led losses, driven by weak ETF flows and risk-off sentiment.

Today's Outlook

Today, the BlockDAG presale concludes, potentially impacting related token sentiment. Significant token unlocks for MIRA ($1.58M), SAHARA ($3.39M), and BLAST ($779K) may increase supply and volatility in those markets.

Fear and Greed Index

2.00% Annual Percentile

34 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.93T

2.79%

Total Market Trading Volume

$104.54B

95.24%

Altcoin Season Index

27.27%

Quarterly Percentile

27 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.59B

0.79%

Futures

606.26B

11.99%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, maintaining the current 3.50%-3.75% range. This policy stability is likely to sustain current liquidity conditions, impacting Bitcoin and DeFi market risk appetite.

Former President Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian imports due to Canada's trade deal with China, raising fears of a renewed trade war. Such trade tensions could increase volatility in crypto markets and drive safe-haven flows into Bitcoin and gold.

Spot gold has broken above $5,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by central bank demand and macroeconomic uncertainty. This surge highlights increased risk aversion and may boost Bitcoin's narrative as digital gold.

India's upcoming 2026 budget is expected to focus on fiscal consolidation and capex, with a projected fiscal deficit of 4.2%-4.4% of GDP. Prudent fiscal policy could support INR stability and influence capital flows into Indian crypto markets.

Nine major European banks plan to launch a euro-pegged stablecoin via Qivalis in H2 2026, aiming to enhance cross-border payments and reduce reliance on USD stablecoins. This move could shift stablecoin liquidity and settlement flows in DeFi.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Nine major European banks, including ING and UniCredit, have formed a consortium to launch a euro-pegged stablecoin via Qivalis, aiming for regulatory approval and a launch in H2 2026, signaling increased regulatory focus on stablecoins in Europe.

Japan will reclassify XRP as a regulated financial product by Q2 2026, subjecting it to stricter oversight and compliance, which may enhance investor protection and institutional participation in the Japanese crypto market.

South Korea's Coinone, the third largest crypto exchange, is up for sale amid ongoing regulatory tightening and increased scrutiny of local exchanges, potentially impacting market structure and investor confidence.

The U.S. CFTC, under Chair Mike Selig, is advancing 'Crypto Sprint' and 'Future-Proof' initiatives to modernize digital asset regulations, aiming to balance innovation with market integrity and reinforce the U.S. as a global crypto leader.

Nigeria's Quidax exchange has shut down its P2P trading platform due to regulatory uncertainty and stricter capital requirements, reflecting growing enforcement and compliance demands in African crypto markets.

Canton Network (CC): Trading volume surged 69% to $19.1M as CC maintained a $5.59B market cap, driven by growing institutional adoption of on-chain traditional assets and steady price consolidation above $0.14.

Flare (FLR): 24-hour volume jumped 71% to $5.01M with price up 1.96%, fueled by the launch of the ProofRails builder bounty and expanding cross-chain payment infrastructure on Flare Network.

PUMP.fun (PUMP): 24-hour volume reached $207.56M, up 25%, as PUMP launched a $3M fund for startups and reported $637M in annual protocol revenue, boosting trader interest and liquidity.

Smart Money Movements

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) acquired 22,305 BTC for $2.13 billion between January 12-18, 2026, raising its total Bitcoin holdings to 709,715 BTC, with a total cost of $53.92 billion.

Bitcoin whale wallets holding over 1,000 BTC increased their collective holdings by 104,340 BTC, reaching a four-month high of 7.17 million BTC, as daily $1M+ transfers surged to a two-month peak.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.33 billion in net outflows during the past week, marking the largest weekly redemption since February 2025, with BlackRock's IBIT leading with $537 million in outflows.

GameStop transferred 4,710 BTC worth approximately $420 million to Coinbase Prime, sparking speculation of a potential exit from its Bitcoin treasury strategy amid a possible $75-85 million loss.

ARK Invest increased its exposure to crypto equities by purchasing $9.4 million in Coinbase shares and investing $9.2 million in Circle and $3.2 million in Bullish, despite ongoing market volatility.

Events to Watch

Jan 26 (Mon)

BlockDAG presale ends; MIRA, SAHARA, and BLAST tokens unlock, with MIRA releasing $822K, SAHARA $5.48M, and BLAST $779K.

Jan 27 (Tue)

Federal Reserve begins two-day FOMC meeting; Australia releases December CPI data; XRP Ledger mainnet amendments activate, node upgrade deadline.

Jan 28 (Wed)

Federal Reserve announces FOMC interest rate decision, expected to keep rates at 3.5-3.75%; GRASS unlocks 181M tokens to early investors; 140M token unlock event.

Jan 29 (Thu)

US initial jobless claims data released; TREE unlocks $8.34M in tokens, 39.41% of supply.

Jan 30 (Fri)

US December PPI and Eurozone Q4 GDP data released; Kamino unlocks 229M tokens ($10.4M), 3.68% of supply; Aptos unlocks 11M APT tokens.

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