Crypto Market Slides as BTC, ETH Lead Declines; Major Token Unlocks Ahead

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a dovish stance as US labor market data and inflation releases approach, heightening market sensitivity. Indonesia's new crypto tax compliance rules may impact DeFi liquidity and cross-border flows. Geopolitical tensions, notably US-Venezuela oil disputes, are increasing volatility in global risk assets.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 24 hours, with BTC up 3.33% to $94,172.17 and ETH rising 3.23% to $3,240.50, as investors looked past geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and reacted positively to strong institutional ETF inflows and a constructive regulatory outlook from Goldman Sachs. Memecoins led losses: BONK dropped 11.14%, FLOKI fell 11.10%, and PIPPIN slid 8.67%, reversing prior speculative rallies. No major altcoin sector outperformed, as risk-off flows dominated.

Today's Outlook

Today, Ethena (ENA) unlocks 171 million tokens (2.37% of supply, $42M), potentially impacting market liquidity. Theta Network launches the TDROP 2.0 governance proposal, reallocating 4B TDROP and extending staking incentives. The US ISM Manufacturing data for January is released, offering fresh macro signals.

Fear and Greed Index

22.00% Annual Percentile

40 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.14T

1.01%

Total Market Trading Volume

$82.15B

16.53%

Altcoin Season Index

75.00%

Quarterly Percentile

25 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

2.65B

1.50%

Futures

795.02B

5.91%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The latest Federal Reserve minutes indicate moderate US GDP growth and a cooling labor market, shifting market focus to the upcoming non-farm payrolls report. This data is expected to influence BTC price volatility and overall crypto market sentiment.

Indonesia's Ministry of Finance has mandated e-wallet and crypto service providers to share transaction data for tax compliance, starting 2026. This policy may impact DeFi liquidity and cross-border crypto flows due to increased transparency and reporting requirements.

President Trump's call for "total access" to Venezuelan oil highlights escalating geopolitical tensions, which could drive oil price volatility and indirectly affect Bitcoin as a macro hedge asset.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Indonesia's new regulation mandates e-wallet and crypto service providers to share account and transaction data with tax authorities, aiming to enhance tax compliance and transparency in the digital asset sector. This move may increase compliance costs and impact user privacy.

PwC is expanding its digital asset services in response to regulatory shifts and stablecoin legislation, signaling growing institutional confidence and likely accelerating adoption of regulated crypto products.

Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin has gained regulatory backing from both New York state and conditional federal approval, positioning it as a compliance-first product and potentially boosting institutional trust in regulated stablecoins.

The US Senate is advancing a bill to limit SEC authority over crypto, aiming to clarify regulatory roles and reduce overlap with the CFTC. This could provide legal certainty and encourage domestic innovation in digital assets.

US Bitcoin ATMs are facing stricter regulation after $333 million in fraud losses in 2025, with policymakers shifting from public warnings to legislative action. Tighter controls may reduce scam risks but could limit access for legitimate users.

BONK (BONK): BONK surged over 20% in the past 24 hours, driven by renewed memecoin sector momentum and a major listing on Swiss SIX Exchange as a regulated ETP, boosting trading volume and institutional exposure.

PIPPIN (PIPPIN): PIPPIN jumped 17.5% in 24 hours amid a Solana ecosystem meme coin rally, with strong whale accumulation and derivatives activity pushing price above $0.50 and attracting speculative inflows.

FLOKI Inu (FLOKI): FLOKI gained over 22% in 24 hours, benefiting from the broader memecoin rally and increased trading activity, though no specific protocol upgrade or major listing was identified as a direct catalyst.

Smart Money Movements

A crypto whale increased short positions to $170 million across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana after selling 255 BTC, using up to 20x leverage, and is currently facing over $1.5 million in floating losses.

A whale invested $12.42 million in gold-backed tokens, acquiring 2,371.4 XAUt and 559.7 PAXG at an average price of $4,239, following a previous $30 million Bitcoin purchase; the position has a floating profit of $410,000.

Justin Sun transferred $5.4 million in LIT tokens from spot to perpetual contracts, signaling a strategic hedge as LIT lost its $2.63 support, with market sentiment indicating an 86% probability of LIT reaching $2.

A single entity purchased 272,979 Chainlink (LINK) tokens for $3.67 million via three wallets at $13.45 per token, highlighting continued large-scale accumulation in LINK.

An Ethereum whale swapped 7,828 ETH, valued at $24.6 million, for 269 Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) within two hours, reflecting ongoing strategic asset reallocation among major holders.

Events to Watch

Jan 5 (Mon)

Ethena (ENA) will unlock 171 million tokens (2.37% of supply, $42M); Theta Network launches TDROP 2.0 governance proposal; US ISM Manufacturing data for January released.

Jan 6 (Tue)

Hyperion DeFi (HYPE) unlocks 12.46 million tokens (3.61% of supply, $313M), a major token release impacting market liquidity.

Jan 9 (Fri)

US Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate, and December employment data released; MOVE unlocks 16.4 million tokens (5.77% of supply, $6.1M).

Jan 11 (Sun)

Aptos (APT) unlocks 11.31 million tokens (0.70% of supply, $21.6M), a significant event for the token’s circulating supply.

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