Crypto Market Rebounds: BTC, ETH Lead Gains Amid Regulatory Uncertainty

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged, maintaining a restrictive stance that limits risk appetite. Ongoing US regulatory debates over stablecoin yields and crypto market structure add uncertainty, while President Trump’s pro-crypto stance supports sentiment. The US Dollar Index’s recent strength may further pressure crypto valuations.

Crypto Market

The crypto market rebounded modestly, with BTC up 1.58% to $78,794 and ETH rising 2.95% to $2,345.18, following recent ETF outflows and risk-off sentiment. Solana (SOL) gained 2.16%, MYX Finance (MYX) surged 9.45%, while RIVER (RIVER) fell 3.75%. MemeCore (M) was flat. Altcoins showed mixed performance, with DeFi and meme sectors leading gains, driven by technical breakouts and leveraged trading.

Today's Outlook

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision at 2:30 PM AEDT, which may influence global risk sentiment. USUALX token unlock window closes, potentially impacting token supply and price dynamics. Key DeFi and governance discussions, as well as major protocol upgrades, are scheduled throughout the day.

Fear and Greed Index

10.00% Annual Percentile

15 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.65T

1.45%

Total Market Trading Volume

$205.02B

45.06%

Altcoin Season Index

45.45%

Quarterly Percentile

30 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.43B

2.19%

Futures

581.56B

2.80%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The White House hosted a meeting with crypto and banking leaders to discuss stablecoin rewards, highlighting concerns that stablecoin yields could divert deposits from banks and impact DeFi liquidity and stablecoin adoption.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in March, with a 91.1% probability, maintaining a restrictive monetary stance that could limit risk appetite and suppress BTC and DeFi market inflows.

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is delaying the release of the January jobs report, increasing market uncertainty and potentially heightening volatility in crypto asset prices due to unclear macroeconomic signals.

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.67% to 97.635, strengthening against major currencies; a stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on BTC and altcoin valuations by reducing global liquidity.

President Trump reaffirmed support for crypto, emphasizing its strategic role in U.S. competitiveness versus China, which may boost market sentiment and institutional interest in digital assets.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The White House hosted a meeting with Coinbase, crypto industry groups, and banks to discuss stablecoin rewards regulation, highlighting ongoing divisions over whether platforms can offer yield on stablecoins. No consensus was reached, but compromise paths are being explored, impacting investor confidence and the legislative timeline.

President Trump reaffirmed strong support for cryptocurrency, emphasizing its strategic role in maintaining U.S. competitiveness against China. This political backing is seen as positive for regulatory clarity and market sentiment.

A White House meeting between crypto and banking sectors was described as constructive, focusing on collaboration to address regulatory challenges. This signals a shift toward more open dialogue, potentially reducing uncertainty for digital asset markets.

The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee advanced the crypto market structure bill, but stablecoin yield remains a key sticking point. Ongoing negotiations and political divisions continue to delay comprehensive regulation, contributing to market volatility.

The Department of Justice released files linking prominent crypto figures to Jeffrey Epstein, increasing scrutiny on industry governance and compliance. This raises reputational risks and may prompt stricter regulatory oversight.

MYX Finance (MYX): MYX surged 10.7% in 24h with trading volume up nearly 40%, outperforming the market as it broke above key resistance; strong bullish momentum is driven by technical breakouts and leveraged trading activity.

MemeCore (M): MemeCore jumped 89% in 24h, with spot volume rising 12.96% to $147M and perpetual open interest up 29% to $33.7M; the rally is fueled by aggressive derivatives trading and short-term speculative flows.

RIVER (RIVER): RIVER posted a 393% weekly gain and 1,900% monthly surge, driven by multi-sector DeFi momentum, memecoin breakout, and high-profile investments such as Justin Sun’s $8M backing, despite lacking a single clear catalyst.

Smart Money Movements

The USDC Treasury minted 250 million USDC, marking one of the largest stablecoin issuances this quarter and signaling a major liquidity shift in the crypto market.

A dormant Bitcoin wallet moved 10,000 BTC, valued at over $750 million, drawing significant attention due to the scale and age of the holdings.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) purchased 855 BTC for $75.3 million at an average price of $87,974 per Bitcoin, increasing its total holdings to 713,502 BTC.

Bitmain acquired 41,788 ETH, bringing its total Ethereum holdings to 4,285,125 ETH, which represents approximately 3.55% of the total ETH supply.

A significant transfer of 26,100 BNB, worth $202 million, occurred between two anonymous addresses, executed in five equal parts of about $40.39 million each.

Events to Watch

Feb 2 (Mon)

US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices data release at 3:00 pm GMT; major token unlocks for HYPE, BERA, XDC may impact token prices.

Feb 3 (Tue)

Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision at 2:30 PM AEDT, followed by a media conference; Usualx unlock window closes.

Feb 4 (Wed)

Blocksphere Summit 2026 in Dubai focuses on blockchain infrastructure and Web3 startups; Chainflip FLIP Lending Beta ends, rewards distributed.

Feb 5 (Thu)

Digital Assets Forum in London covers crypto compliance and asset management; Black Swan Summit India discusses crypto regulation and Web3 policy.

Feb 6 (Fri)

US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for January released at 8:30 a.m. ET; Berachain (BERA) unlocks 63.75M tokens ($30.8M); Hyperliquid unlocks 9.92M HYPE ($305M).

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