Crypto Market Faces Volatility as $510M Token Unlock and US Liquidity Risks Loom

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US dollar fell sharply after a rare Fed 'rate check,' driving investors to gold and increasing volatility in risk assets. US government shutdown odds have surged to 80%, raising liquidity concerns for crypto markets. The SEC's removal of crypto from its 2026 priorities signals regulatory normalization and boosts institutional confidence.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad weakness over the past 12 hours, with BTC down 1.24% to $87,601 and ETH down 1.42% to $2,883, pressured by ETF outflows and risk-off sentiment. Altcoins were mixed; RIVER (RIVER) surged 21.05%, Algorand (ALGO) rose 5.21%, and KAIA (KAIA) gained 4.97%, driven by ecosystem news and integrations.

Today's Outlook

A major $510M token unlock occurs today, with SUI, SIGN, EIGEN, KMNO, and JUP accounting for over $464M, significantly impacting token supply and potentially increasing volatility across affected assets.

Fear and Greed Index

2.00% Annual Percentile

34 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.97T

0.94%

Total Market Trading Volume

$129.78B

114.60%

Altcoin Season Index

27.27%

Quarterly Percentile

27 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.60B

0.35%

Futures

661.39B

22.17%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The U.S. dollar experienced a sharp decline after the Federal Reserve conducted a rare 'rate check' with currency traders, prompting a flight to gold and impacting Bitcoin's stability as investors reassess risk assets.

U.S. Treasury yields fell as markets await the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, with expectations of a hold; this uncertainty is contributing to subdued liquidity and cautious sentiment in crypto markets.

The People's Bank of China announced it will double the yuan liquidity facility for Hong Kong banks to 200 billion yuan, aiming to enhance offshore yuan funding and support Hong Kong's role as a global yuan hub, which may increase cross-border crypto flows.

Japan's yen surged following government intervention warnings and fiscal policy signals, causing volatility in FX markets and influencing crypto trading pairs, especially those involving JPY and USD.

The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has surged to nearly 80%, raising concerns over a potential liquidity drain from financial markets that could trigger sharp selloffs in Bitcoin and altcoins.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The SEC has officially removed crypto from its 2026 regulatory priorities, signaling a shift toward regulatory normalization and boosting institutional confidence in U.S. digital asset markets.

The SEC and CFTC announced a joint event to harmonize U.S. crypto regulations, aiming for unified oversight and clearer compliance standards, which may reduce legal uncertainty for market participants.

Ka.App, a Bulgaria-based crypto wallet, is discontinuing services after an internal review of EU MiCA rules, highlighting the rising compliance costs and regulatory pressure on smaller European crypto firms.

The Netherlands is set to introduce a 36% tax on both realized and unrealized crypto gains from 2028, raising concerns about capital flight and potential negative impacts on local crypto innovation.

Japan's Financial Services Agency is preparing to approve spot crypto ETFs by 2028, with major institutions like SBI and Nomura developing products, potentially expanding regulated crypto access in Asia.

RIVER (RIVER): RIVER surged 30.9% in 24h to $81.47 with $109.4M volume, driven by strong demand for its chain-abstraction stablecoin system and recent all-time high at $87.79.

Algorand (ALGO): ALGO rose 5.3% in 24h to $0.1219 with $57M volume, supported by USDC integration on Kraken and the launch of the Algorand Ecosystem Advisory Council.

KAIA (KAIA): KAIA gained 4.7% in 24h to $0.0753 with $82M volume, benefiting from the recent merger of Klaytn and Finschia, expanding its Web3 ecosystem across Asia.

Smart Money Movements

A prominent Bitcoin investor acquired 106,000 ETH worth $304 million in a single day, signaling increased institutional interest in Ethereum.

MicroStrategy reported a floating profit of $8.395 billion on its 712,647 BTC holdings after purchasing 2,932 BTC for $264 million at an average price of $90,100 per BTC.

Bitmine increased its Ethereum holdings by 40,302 ETH, investing $117.2 million last week, bringing its total ETH assets to 4,243,338 ETH valued at $12.34 billion.

BlackRock deposited 1,814.76 BTC ($159.46 million) and 15,112 ETH ($43.75 million) into Coinbase, reflecting ongoing large-scale institutional crypto activity.

A significant transfer of 590 BTC valued at $51.8 million was moved from Coinbase Institutional to an unknown wallet, highlighting continued large-scale Bitcoin movements.

Events to Watch

Jan 26 (Mon)

$510M token unlock for Team Incentives and Branding & Promotion; SUI, SIGN, EIGEN, KMNO, JUP unlocks exceed $464M, impacting token supply.

Jan 27 (Tue)

US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Chair Powell's press conference; US Senate Committee to vote on Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, key for crypto regulation.

Jan 28 (Wed)

FOMC meeting and policy statement; Fed interest rate decision expected to hold at 3.50%-3.75%; Bank of Canada and Brazil Central Bank rate decisions; Australia CPI data release.

Jan 29 (Thu)

US GDP and Core PCE data for Q4 2025; US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision; Singapore monetary policy statement; Philippines GDP growth announcement.

Jan 30 (Fri)

US Producer Price Index (PPI) and GDP data releases; Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy Q4 GDP; Japan Tokyo CPI; US government shutdown deadline if budget deal fails.

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