Crypto Market Drops as US CPI Looms, Major ONDO Unlock Adds Volatility

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US December CPI release is imminent, with markets expecting 2.7-2.8% YoY inflation, a key driver for Fed rate cut expectations and crypto volatility. China injected $12.3B in liquidity to stabilize funding, potentially supporting risk assets. Dubai and India have tightened crypto regulations, increasing compliance costs and reducing anonymity for users and exchanges.

Crypto Market

The crypto market is broadly lower over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 4.43% to $97,474 and Ethereum falling 9.27% to $3,144.86, pressured by ETF outflows and weak risk sentiment ahead of US CPI data. Altcoins also declined, with Arbitrum (ARB) dropping 11.73% and ONDO (ONDO) down 9.77%. Aerodrome Finance (AERO) fell 14.23%, while Monero (XMR) outperformed, down only 2.52%. No major gainers among high-volume tokens; overall, DeFi and L2 sectors led declines.

Today's Outlook

India will release December CPI data, which may impact INR volatility and regional crypto trading. Ondo Finance is unlocking 57.23% of its circulating ONDO tokens today, introducing significant market uncertainty and potential price swings.

Fear and Greed Index

0.00% Annual Percentile

40 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.09T

0.40%

Total Market Trading Volume

$89.10B

92.95%

Altcoin Season Index

45.45%

Quarterly Percentile

26 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.16B

19.14%

Futures

622.08B

5.55%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 will be released on January 13, 2026, with consensus forecasts expecting a 2.7-2.8% year-over-year increase. This data is critical for shaping Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and could drive volatility in Bitcoin and broader crypto markets.

China's central bank injected $12.3 billion into the financial system via seven-day reverse repos to stabilize short-term liquidity. This targeted liquidity support may indirectly boost risk appetite and on-chain activity in crypto markets by easing funding conditions.

The US Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of Trump-era tariffs on January 14, 2026. A decision to strike down tariffs could lower inflation expectations, weaken the US dollar, and provide a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin and digital assets.

Initial US jobless claims data, set for release on January 15, 2026, will offer a timely snapshot of labor market health. Higher-than-expected claims could increase expectations for Fed rate cuts, supporting crypto market liquidity and risk asset inflows.

China's upcoming credit and social financing data, due January 14, 2026, will be closely watched for signs of credit growth. Stronger credit expansion could signal improved liquidity conditions, potentially supporting institutional flows into digital assets.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Dubai's DFSA has implemented major updates to its Crypto Token regulatory framework, shifting asset approval responsibility to firms and banning privacy coins in DIFC. This move enhances investor protection and aligns Dubai with global AML standards, impacting token listings and privacy-focused projects.

India's Financial Intelligence Unit has enforced stricter KYC and AML rules for crypto exchanges, requiring live selfie verification, geolocation, and frequent KYC updates. These measures increase compliance costs and reduce user anonymity, affecting onboarding and ongoing operations for exchanges and users.

The US Senate Banking Committee will review the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on January 15, aiming to clarify regulatory oversight for digital assets. The bill's progress is closely watched as it could provide long-awaited regulatory certainty, influencing institutional participation and market stability.

Coinbase has threatened to withdraw support for the CLARITY Act if the Senate imposes strict limits on stablecoin rewards, highlighting industry tensions over stablecoin regulation. This dispute could delay comprehensive US crypto legislation, affecting stablecoin yields and exchange business models.

Dubai's updated crypto rules now require firms to conduct their own documented assessments of crypto tokens, ending the DFSA's recognized token list. This regulatory shift gives firms more flexibility but increases compliance responsibility, potentially accelerating innovation while raising operational risks.

Story (STORY): STORY surged 22.8% in 24h, driven by high trading volume over $211M and renewed interest in its charity and NFT storytelling platform, despite no major news event.

Monero (XMR): XMR jumped 13.4% in 24h, reaching a new all-time high of $596.87 with $395M volume, fueled by increased demand for privacy coins amid market volatility.

Aerodrome Finance (AERO): AERO rose 3.98% in 24h, with $35.9M trading volume and TVL over $516M, supported by its role as Base network’s central liquidity hub and strong DeFi incentives.

Smart Money Movements

Strategy Inc. acquired 13,627 BTC for approximately $1.25 billion between January 5 and 11, 2026, raising its total Bitcoin holdings to 687,410 BTC, with an average purchase price of $91,519 per BTC.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies purchased an additional 24,266 ETH last week, increasing its total Ethereum holdings to 4.168 million ETH, representing about 3.45% of the total ETH supply.

Blackrock deposited 3,143 BTC (about $285 million) and 7,204 ETH (about $22.42 million) into Coinbase, totaling $307 million in digital assets.

Bitmine staked 109,504 ETH, valued at approximately $340 million, bringing its total staked Ethereum to over 1.19 million ETH, worth around $3.7 billion.

A whale transferred $12.54 million worth of Chainlink (LINK) into multi-signature wallets, indicating a strategic consolidation of assets.

Events to Watch

Jan 12 (Mon)

India will release December CPI data, potentially impacting INR volatility and regional crypto trading; Ondo Finance unlocks 57.23% of circulating ONDO tokens, creating market uncertainty.

Jan 13 (Tue)

US December CPI and Core CPI data will be released, providing key signals for inflation and interest rate outlook; FOGO launches as the native token of a high-performance SVM-based Layer 1 blockchain; Toncoin debuts its OFF Script event.

Jan 14 (Wed)

US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for November 2025 will be released, offering insights into wholesale inflation trends.

Jan 15 (Thu)

US Senate Banking Committee will review the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a key step for crypto regulation; Ravencoin undergoes halving, reducing block rewards and increasing scarcity for miners and holders.

Jan 16 (Fri)

Arbitrum will unlock 92.65 million ARB tokens, valued at $18.8 million, representing 1.86% of its circulating supply.

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