I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

1.

Macro Environment

Global markets are focused on the release of US January CPI and China CPI/PPI data, which are expected to influence risk sentiment and monetary policy outlook. The launch of CME futures for Cardano, Chainlink, and Stellar marks a significant step in institutional crypto adoption. Regulatory attention remains high, with MiCA compliance deadlines in Europe and evolving frameworks in Asia shaping cross-border crypto flows.
2.

Crypto Market

The crypto market experienced broad declines over the past 12 hours, with BTC down 3.5% to $68,675 and ETH down 4.8% to $2,016, pressured by weak risk sentiment and ETF outflows. Most major altcoins, including SOL (-5.3%), ADA (-4.0%), LINK (-4.3%), and XLM (-4.1%), also fell. Notable gainers were Decred (DCR, +11.7%) and Humanity Protocol (H, +11.7%), driven by increased staking and renewed interest in decentralized identity. CME’s launch of ADA, LINK, and XLM futures expanded institutional access but did not offset overall market weakness.
3.

Today's Outlook

Today, the launch of CME futures for Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK), and Stellar (XLM) is expected to boost institutional participation in crypto derivatives. The release of US January CPI and China CPI/PPI data will be closely watched, as these inflation indicators could drive volatility across both traditional and crypto markets.
Fear and Greed Index
22.00% Annual Percentile
8 Fear
Total Crypto Market Cap
$2.34T
3.44%
Total Market Trading Volume
$98.39B
11.87%
Altcoin Season Index
0.00%
Quarterly Percentile
21 / 100
Total Futures Market Open Interest
3.74B
1.08%
Futures
535.66B
2.24%
Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

1.

The probability of a U.S. government shutdown before February 14 has surged to 71%, increasing market uncertainty and potentially impacting Bitcoin and DeFi liquidity due to risk-off sentiment.

2.

Japan's ruling coalition secured a decisive election victory, boosting the yen and Japanese equities, but triggering short-term capital outflows from U.S. assets and downward pressure on BTC as global liquidity shifts.

3.

The French Financial Markets Authority (AMF) reminded digital asset firms to prepare for MiCA compliance, with a transition period until July 1, 2026; this may drive near-term volatility in Euro-denominated stablecoins and cross-border crypto flows.

4.

U.S. Treasuries are identified as a major trading opportunity amid expectations of increased volatility in stocks and commodities, which could influence crypto market risk appetite and institutional portfolio allocations.

5.

South Africa's economy expanded by 1.3% in 2025, with strong export growth and stable inflation supporting the rand; this macro stability may attract capital flows into emerging market crypto assets and boost local DeFi activity.

1.

The French AMF has reminded digital asset firms to prepare for MiCA compliance, requiring authorization applications before July 2026, impacting market access and regulatory certainty in France.

2.

South Korea's FSS has launched a major probe into Bithumb after a massive erroneous Bitcoin transfer, signaling stricter enforcement and potential licensing sanctions under the upcoming Digital Asset Basic Act.

3.

China has replaced its 2021 crypto ban with a stricter regime, allowing only state-approved RWA tokenization and expanding prohibitions on unauthorized crypto activities, reinforcing state control and limiting open market participation.

4.

Japan's ruling coalition victory is expected to accelerate crypto tax reform and stablecoin regulation discussions, potentially supporting institutional adoption despite short-term market volatility.

5.

The launch of Erebor Bank as the first crypto-focused bank under a new US national charter signals regulatory openness to digital asset banking, potentially boosting institutional confidence and sector growth.

1.

Humanity Protocol (HUMAN): Humanity Protocol (H) surged 11.7% in 24h with $42.5M volume, driven by renewed interest in decentralized biometric identity and privacy solutions, as on-chain activity and holder count rose to 33,830.

2.

Decred (DCR): Decred (DCR) gained 11.7% in 24h, reaching $27.42 with $10.3M volume. The price jump is attributed to increased staking participation and community governance engagement amid market volatility.

3.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI): World Liberty Financial (WLFI) rebounded 12% in 24h, signaling renewed DeFi risk appetite. The move follows recent governance activity and increased trading, with daily volume up to $4.7K.

Smart Money Movements

1.

Strategy acquired 1,142 Bitcoin for $90 million at an average price of $78,815, bringing total holdings to 714,644 BTC valued at $54.35 billion.

2.

BlackRock deposited 2,268 BTC ($155.94M) and 45,324 ETH ($91.77M) to Coinbase Prime, signaling continued institutional accumulation.

3.

BitMine purchased 40,613 ETH for $82 million, increasing its total Ethereum holdings to 4,325,738 ETH, representing 3.58% of total supply.

4.

Bitcoin whale wallets holding 1,000–100,000 BTC accumulated 40,000 BTC as prices dipped below $60,000, with 22,000 BTC added by 1,000–10,000 BTC wallets and 18,000 BTC by 10,000–100,000 BTC wallets.

5.

Cango Inc. sold 4,451 BTC for $305 million to repay loans, reallocating capital and reducing financial leverage amid market volatility.

Events to Watch

Feb 9 (Mon)

CME launches futures for Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK), and Stellar (XLM); US January CPI and China CPI/PPI data released, key for global markets.

Feb 10 (Tue)

Aptos (APT) unlocks ~11.31M tokens (~$12.1M); LayerZero announces major event; Arthur Hayes' HYPE stock performance bet begins.

Feb 11 (Wed)

US January Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate released; Step Dubai Conference 2026 opens, gathering global tech and crypto leaders.

Feb 12 (Thu)

UK Q4 GDP and US January PPI data released, impacting economic outlook and market sentiment; Monthly Market & Economic Outlook Webinar held.

Feb 13 (Fri)

US January CPI data released, a key inflation indicator for Federal Reserve policy and crypto market expectations.

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