Crypto Market Drops as Dollar Strengthens; River, Kite, H Surge

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

US job growth exceeded expectations, keeping unemployment at 4.3% and reducing chances of near-term Fed rate cuts. The US dollar strengthened on robust labor data, pressuring crypto valuations. The Federal Reserve and SEC signal tighter oversight, while institutional adoption grows with new tokenized asset initiatives.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with BTC down 2.08% to $66,175 and ETH down 1.18% to $1,941.14, pressured by a stronger dollar and risk-off sentiment. Altcoins mostly fell, but RIVER (+26.26%), KITE (+19.57%), and Humanity Protocol (+9.90%) outperformed, driven by ecosystem growth and media attention. AI and Layer2 sectors showed relative resilience, while DeFi and meme coins lagged.

Today's Outlook

Major token unlocks today include Starknet (127M, 4.61%), Arbitrum (92.65M, 1.82%), and KAITO (32.6M, 10.64%), likely increasing volatility. Eurozone Q4 GDP and trade data releases may impact global risk sentiment and crypto flows. Watch for sector rotation as large unlocks and macro data drive market moves.

Fear and Greed Index

30.00% Annual Percentile

9 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.38T

0.48%

Total Market Trading Volume

$115.44B

28.05%

Altcoin Season Index

45.45%

Quarterly Percentile

26 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.77B

0.50%

Futures

614.13B

16.31%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The US January jobs report exceeded expectations with 130,000 new jobs and unemployment steady at 4.3%, reducing the likelihood of imminent Fed rate cuts and dampening crypto market risk appetite.

Federal Reserve officials signal a preference to keep interest rates steady due to persistent inflation concerns, maintaining a restrictive monetary stance that limits liquidity inflows to digital assets.

The US dollar strengthened following robust labor data, increasing headwinds for Bitcoin and altcoins as a stronger dollar typically pressures crypto valuations.

OPEC+ oil production fell by nearly 440,000 barrels per day, supporting global inflationary pressures and potentially delaying monetary easing, which could constrain DeFi and NFT market liquidity.

The US Congressional Budget Office projects worsening federal deficits and debt over the next decade, raising long-term concerns about fiat stability and supporting the investment thesis for Bitcoin as a hedge.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The Federal Reserve proposes classifying cryptocurrencies as a separate asset class for derivatives margin requirements, highlighting their volatility and suggesting higher collateral buffers, which may increase trading costs and impact market liquidity.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins identifies prediction markets as a major regulatory concern, with the SEC and CFTC debating oversight, potentially leading to stricter controls and affecting DeFi prediction platforms.

The London Stock Exchange Group plans to launch an on-chain settlement service for tokenized assets, pending regulatory approval, signaling growing institutional acceptance and regulatory engagement with blockchain.

SoFi Hong Kong partners with OSL Group to expand digital asset services, integrating trade execution and custody, reflecting Hong Kong's progressive regulatory stance and encouraging institutional crypto adoption.

Aviva Investors collaborates with Ripple to launch tokenized funds on the XRP Ledger, indicating increased regulatory clarity and institutional interest in compliant blockchain-based asset management.

RIVER (RIVER): RIVER surged 26.7% in the past 24 hours, reaching $21.36 with $44.3M trading volume. The rally is driven by its chain-abstraction stablecoin system and recent multi-chain expansion.

KITE (KITE): KITE rose 20.1% in 24 hours to $0.1941, with a market cap of $1.11M and $556 daily volume. The price momentum is fueled by increased mentions as a trending altcoin and market discussions.

Humanity Protocol (H): Humanity Protocol (H) gained 10.1% in 24 hours, trading at $0.1677. The surge is attributed to strong buyer interest and being highlighted as a top gainer in major crypto news outlets.

Smart Money Movements

Coinbase increased its Bitcoin holdings by $39 million in Q4 2025, reinforcing its commitment to Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.

BlackRock deposited 1,134 BTC worth approximately $77.05 million into Coinbase, highlighting ongoing institutional engagement with large-scale Bitcoin transactions.

Corporate entities acquired $3.5 billion in Bitcoin during January 2025, with Strategy purchasing 40,150 BTC, representing 93% of the total volume.

Tron Inc. expanded its TRX reserves by purchasing 181,346 tokens at an average price of $0.28, bringing total holdings to 681.2 million TRX.

Tether Treasury transferred $160 million USDT to Bitfinex, reflecting significant stablecoin liquidity movement within the crypto market.

Events to Watch

Feb 13 (Fri)

Starknet: 127M tokens unlock (4.61% of supply); Arbitrum: 92.65M tokens unlock (1.82% of supply); Kaito: 32.6M tokens unlock (10.64% of supply).

Feb 13 (Fri)

YZY: 62.5M tokens unlock (17.24% of supply); Connex: 1.32M tokens unlock (1.56% of supply).

Feb 13 (Fri)

Eurozone: Q4 GDP Flash Estimate and Trade Balance data to be released, key for EUR and global markets.

Table of Contents

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Crypto Market

Today's Outlook

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The US January jobs report exceeded expectations with 130,000 new jobs and unemployment steady at 4.3%, reducing the likelihood of imminent Fed rate cuts and dampening crypto market risk appetite.

Federal Reserve officials signal a preference to keep interest rates steady due to persistent inflation concerns, maintaining a restrictive monetary stance that limits liquidity inflows to digital assets.

The US dollar strengthened following robust labor data, increasing headwinds for Bitcoin and altcoins as a stronger dollar typically pressures crypto valuations.

OPEC+ oil production fell by nearly 440,000 barrels per day, supporting global inflationary pressures and potentially delaying monetary easing, which could constrain DeFi and NFT market liquidity.

The US Congressional Budget Office projects worsening federal deficits and debt over the next decade, raising long-term concerns about fiat stability and supporting the investment thesis for Bitcoin as a hedge.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The Federal Reserve proposes classifying cryptocurrencies as a separate asset class for derivatives margin requirements, highlighting their volatility and suggesting higher collateral buffers, which may increase trading costs and impact market liquidity.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins identifies prediction markets as a major regulatory concern, with the SEC and CFTC debating oversight, potentially leading to stricter controls and affecting DeFi prediction platforms.

The London Stock Exchange Group plans to launch an on-chain settlement service for tokenized assets, pending regulatory approval, signaling growing institutional acceptance and regulatory engagement with blockchain.

SoFi Hong Kong partners with OSL Group to expand digital asset services, integrating trade execution and custody, reflecting Hong Kong's progressive regulatory stance and encouraging institutional crypto adoption.

Aviva Investors collaborates with Ripple to launch tokenized funds on the XRP Ledger, indicating increased regulatory clarity and institutional interest in compliant blockchain-based asset management.

Trending Tokens

RIVER (RIVER): RIVER surged 26.7% in the past 24 hours, reaching $21.36 with $44.3M trading volume. The rally is driven by its chain-abstraction stablecoin system and recent multi-chain expansion.

KITE (KITE): KITE rose 20.1% in 24 hours to $0.1941, with a market cap of $1.11M and $556 daily volume. The price momentum is fueled by increased mentions as a trending altcoin and market discussions.

Humanity Protocol (H): Humanity Protocol (H) gained 10.1% in 24 hours, trading at $0.1677. The surge is attributed to strong buyer interest and being highlighted as a top gainer in major crypto news outlets.

Smart Money Movements

Coinbase increased its Bitcoin holdings by $39 million in Q4 2025, reinforcing its commitment to Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.

BlackRock deposited 1,134 BTC worth approximately $77.05 million into Coinbase, highlighting ongoing institutional engagement with large-scale Bitcoin transactions.

Corporate entities acquired $3.5 billion in Bitcoin during January 2025, with Strategy purchasing 40,150 BTC, representing 93% of the total volume.

Tron Inc. expanded its TRX reserves by purchasing 181,346 tokens at an average price of $0.28, bringing total holdings to 681.2 million TRX.

Tether Treasury transferred $160 million USDT to Bitfinex, reflecting significant stablecoin liquidity movement within the crypto market.

Events to Watch

Feb 13 (Fri)

Feb 13 (Fri)

Feb 13 (Fri)

III. Phemex Market Focus

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