Crypto Market Drops as BTC, ETH Slide; Monero Surges on Privacy Demand

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged, supporting the US dollar and limiting crypto upside. US job growth slowed in December, raising expectations for a potential Fed rate cut later in 2026. India will release December CPI data on January 12, which could impact INR volatility and regional crypto trading.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 24 hours, with BTC down 4.43% to $97,474 and ETH falling 9.27% to $3,144.86, pressured by ETF outflows and weak risk sentiment. Monero (XMR) surged 25.3% to $596.58 on privacy demand, while Solana (SOL) rose 3.9% to $141.41, and Render (RNDR) gained 14.2% to $2.60, driven by ecosystem growth. Meme and DeFi sectors underperformed, with most altcoins in negative territory.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the Optimism founders' AMA on token buyback governance and a Qtum hard fork aligning with Bitcoin 29.1 and Ethereum Pectra updates. These events may drive volatility in related tokens and sectors.

Fear and Greed Index

0.00% Annual Percentile

40 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.10T

0.18%

Total Market Trading Volume

$61.06B

34.98%

Altcoin Season Index

45.45%

Quarterly Percentile

26 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

2.66B

0.53%

Futures

589.91B

0.09%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with a 95.6% probability, maintaining a restrictive monetary stance that supports the US dollar and may limit short-term upside for BTC and DeFi liquidity.

Recent US labor market data showed only 50,000 jobs added in December, the weakest monthly gain of 2025, increasing expectations for a potential Fed rate cut later in 2026, which could boost risk appetite and crypto inflows.

India's December CPI inflation data is set for release on January 12, a key macro indicator that could influence INR volatility and impact crypto trading volumes in the region, especially for stablecoin pairs.

Australian November CPI dropped to 3.4%, easing inflationary pressures and supporting expectations for a stable policy rate, which may encourage risk-on sentiment and support local crypto market activity.

The US national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, and a surge in corporate bond issuance is intensifying competition for capital, potentially raising Treasury yields and affecting global liquidity conditions relevant to BTC and digital asset valuations.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

India's FIU has enforced strict KYC rules for crypto exchanges, requiring live biometric verification, geolocation, and bank account authentication, increasing compliance costs and potentially deterring new users.

Tether froze $182 million in USDT on Tron at the request of U.S. law enforcement, highlighting the centralized compliance mechanisms of stablecoins and raising ongoing debates about decentralization and regulatory control.

The UK Labour Party has called for a ban on crypto political donations, citing risks of foreign interference and transparency issues, which could limit the use of digital assets in political funding.

Coinbase is intensifying lobbying efforts in the U.S. to protect stablecoin rewards as lawmakers debate whether only regulated institutions should offer such incentives, potentially impacting DeFi and platform revenues.

South Korea's FSC is considering preemptive crypto account freezes to combat market manipulation, signaling stricter enforcement and possibly driving traders toward self-custody solutions.

Monero (XMR): Monero surged over 24% in the past 24 hours, reaching a new all-time high of $593.61, driven by a sharp increase in trading volume to $303M and renewed demand for privacy coins.

MemeCore (M): MemeCore maintained a strong market cap of $2.06B and saw a 4.8% daily gain, fueled by its unique Proof of Meme consensus and growing adoption as a Layer 1 for meme coin ecosystems.

Midnight (NIGHT): Midnight posted notable gains with a 24h trading volume exceeding $36M, as investor interest in new privacy and scalability solutions on emerging blockchains intensified.

Smart Money Movements

An Ethereum whale deposited 26,000 ETH, worth $80.88 million, to Bitstamp, realizing a $274 million profit with a 344% return on investment.

A major whale liquidated 26,000 ETH on Bitstamp, securing a $269 million profit after accumulating 101,000 ETH at $660 each and selling at $3,313.

A whale sold 5.37 million WHITEWHALE tokens for 6,523 SOL, valued at approximately $912,000, while retaining 25 million WHITEWHALE tokens worth $4.24 million.

A Polygon-linked address deposited 20 million POL tokens, valued at $3.5 million, into Binance and GSR Markets within a ten-minute window.

Bitmine increased its Ethereum stake by 86,400 ETH, adding $266.3 million, bringing its total staked ETH to 1,052,192, valued at $3.25 billion.

Events to Watch

Jan 13 (Tue)

US December CPI and Core CPI data to be released, providing key signals for inflation and interest rate outlook; Member amendments for Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 due.

Jan 14 (Wed)

Mantle mainnet upgrade and V1.4.2 release to support Ethereum Fusaka features; AssetMantle to launch Mainnet V1.4.2.

Jan 15 (Thu)

US Senate Banking Committee to hold markup on Digital Asset Market Clarity Act; Starknet unlocks 127M tokens (4.83% of supply); Ravencoin halving event.

Jan 16 (Fri)

Arbitrum to unlock 92.65M ARB tokens (1.86% of supply) to DAO Treasury, potentially impacting market liquidity.

Jan 18 (Sun)

TRUMP unlocks 50M tokens ($271M, 11.95% supply); ONDO unlocks 17.1B tokens ($680.3M, 17.10% supply); QAI unlocks 250,000 tokens ($17.72M).

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