Crypto Market Drops as BTC, ETH Slide; FOMC and CPI Data in Focus

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US Federal Reserve delivered a third consecutive rate cut, boosting global risk appetite and supporting crypto inflows. The SEC approved tokenization of US Treasuries and ETFs, signaling a shift toward blockchain-based finance. Lawmakers are pushing for crypto inclusion in 401(k) plans, potentially accelerating mainstream adoption.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 4.43% to $97,474 and Ethereum falling 9.27% to $3,144. Altcoins also retreated, led by Mantle (-8.71%), Hyperliquid (-3.60%), and Merlin Chain (-2.20%). The downturn follows profit-taking after recent ETF-driven rallies and increased macro uncertainty.

Today's Outlook

Today, the FOMC interest rate decision and US Core CPI data release are expected to drive volatility across USD and crypto markets. Additionally, the IO token unlock will release 10.23M tokens (1.28% of supply), potentially impacting IO price dynamics.

Fear and Greed Index

68.00% Annual Percentile

29 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.14T

2.19%

Total Market Trading Volume

$135.22B

11.05%

Altcoin Season Index

0.00%

Quarterly Percentile

18 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.87B

0.97%

Futures

833.31B

4.64%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

India's CPI inflation rose to 0.71% in November 2025, up from a record low in October, driven by higher food and fuel prices. Persistently low inflation supports the Reserve Bank of India's dovish stance, potentially enhancing liquidity and risk appetite in crypto markets.

The People's Bank of China announced it will maintain a moderately expansionary monetary policy through 2025, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize growth. This accommodative stance may boost onshore liquidity, supporting digital asset flows and DeFi activity in Asia.

The US Federal Reserve executed its third consecutive interest rate cut, signaling a pause for further reductions. Easing US monetary policy typically increases global risk appetite, which can drive capital inflows into Bitcoin and altcoins, supporting higher DeFi and NFT trading volumes.

The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in October, increasing expectations for a Bank of England rate cut next week. Anticipated monetary easing in the UK could weaken the pound and encourage capital rotation into crypto assets as investors seek higher returns.

China's yuan reached a 14-month high against the US dollar, with the central bank signaling only modest future easing. A stronger yuan and stable policy outlook may attract cross-border crypto flows and support stablecoin demand in the region.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The CFTC has launched a pilot program allowing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as collateral in derivatives trading, signaling deeper integration of digital assets into regulated financial markets and potentially boosting institutional participation.

21Shares has launched its XRP ETF (TOXR) on the Cboe BZX Exchange after SEC approval, expanding regulated investment options for XRP and reflecting growing demand for compliant crypto products in the US.

The SEC has granted a no-action letter to DTCC, enabling the tokenization of US Treasuries, ETFs, and Russell 1000 stocks starting in 2026, which marks a significant regulatory shift toward blockchain-based financial infrastructure.

US lawmakers are pressuring the SEC to allow Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in 401(k) retirement plans, following a recent executive order, which could broaden mainstream adoption and increase crypto’s role in long-term investment portfolios.

The US Senate is preparing for a crucial vote to confirm new chairs for the CFTC and FDIC, a decision expected to shape the regulatory landscape for digital assets and influence market structure, consumer protection, and banking access for crypto firms.

Merlin Chain (MERL): Merlin Chain surged 14.6% in 24h, driven by $58M trading volume and strong Layer 2 adoption for Bitcoin scalability, with over 17,000 holders and active mainnet usage.

Mantle (MNT): Mantle rose 10.4% in 24h, supported by $177M trading volume and ecosystem growth, as the DAO-backed Layer 2 expands DeFi products and maintains a $4B market cap.

Hyperliquid (HYPE): Hyperliquid gained 7.0% in 24h, fueled by $278M trading volume and increased user activity on its zero-gas-fee Layer 1 DEX, reaching a $9.9B market cap and 336M circulating supply.

Smart Money Movements

A Bitcoin whale accumulated $600 million in ETH, BTC, and SOL, including 150,466 ETH ($491M), 1,000 BTC ($92.6M), and 212,907 SOL ($27.8M), with additional limit orders for 40,000 ETH and 50,000 SOL.

Galaxy Digital transferred 1,900 BTC worth $175.2 million to a new wallet over the past three days, highlighting ongoing large-scale institutional transactions in the Bitcoin market.

Northern Trust held 1.488 million shares of MicroStrategy, valued at $260 million, reflecting continued institutional exposure to Bitcoin through equity proxies.

Bitcoin accumulation addresses acquired 75,000 BTC in early December, bringing their total holdings to approximately 315,000 BTC, signaling increased long-term accumulation by major holders.

A crypto whale, address 0xb31, opened a 5x leveraged long on BTC worth $92.32 million and a 20x leveraged long on SOL worth $13.2 million, with current unrealized profits of $10.4 million.

Events to Watch

Dec 12 (Fri)

FOMC announces interest rate decision; US November Core CPI data released, both likely to impact USD and crypto markets.

Dec 12 (Fri)

IO token unlock: 10.23M tokens ($1.91M, 1.28% of supply, 4.04% of market cap) released, may affect IO price volatility.

Dec 12 (Fri)

BTCC Exchange wins Best Centralized Exchange at BeInCrypto 100 Awards 2025, highlighting industry recognition.

Dec 15 (Mon)

Starknet (STRK) token unlock: 127M STRK ($14M, 2.6% of circulating supply) to be released, potentially increasing sell pressure.

Dec 16 (Tue)

US November Jobs Report to be released, providing key non-farm payroll and wage data relevant for market sentiment.

Table of Contents

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Crypto Market

Today's Outlook

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

India's CPI inflation rose to 0.71% in November 2025, up from a record low in October, driven by higher food and fuel prices. Persistently low inflation supports the Reserve Bank of India's dovish stance, potentially enhancing liquidity and risk appetite in crypto markets.

The People's Bank of China announced it will maintain a moderately expansionary monetary policy through 2025, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize growth. This accommodative stance may boost onshore liquidity, supporting digital asset flows and DeFi activity in Asia.

The US Federal Reserve executed its third consecutive interest rate cut, signaling a pause for further reductions. Easing US monetary policy typically increases global risk appetite, which can drive capital inflows into Bitcoin and altcoins, supporting higher DeFi and NFT trading volumes.

The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in October, increasing expectations for a Bank of England rate cut next week. Anticipated monetary easing in the UK could weaken the pound and encourage capital rotation into crypto assets as investors seek higher returns.

China's yuan reached a 14-month high against the US dollar, with the central bank signaling only modest future easing. A stronger yuan and stable policy outlook may attract cross-border crypto flows and support stablecoin demand in the region.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The CFTC has launched a pilot program allowing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as collateral in derivatives trading, signaling deeper integration of digital assets into regulated financial markets and potentially boosting institutional participation.

21Shares has launched its XRP ETF (TOXR) on the Cboe BZX Exchange after SEC approval, expanding regulated investment options for XRP and reflecting growing demand for compliant crypto products in the US.

The SEC has granted a no-action letter to DTCC, enabling the tokenization of US Treasuries, ETFs, and Russell 1000 stocks starting in 2026, which marks a significant regulatory shift toward blockchain-based financial infrastructure.

US lawmakers are pressuring the SEC to allow Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in 401(k) retirement plans, following a recent executive order, which could broaden mainstream adoption and increase crypto’s role in long-term investment portfolios.

The US Senate is preparing for a crucial vote to confirm new chairs for the CFTC and FDIC, a decision expected to shape the regulatory landscape for digital assets and influence market structure, consumer protection, and banking access for crypto firms.

Trending Tokens

Merlin Chain (MERL): Merlin Chain surged 14.6% in 24h, driven by $58M trading volume and strong Layer 2 adoption for Bitcoin scalability, with over 17,000 holders and active mainnet usage.

Mantle (MNT): Mantle rose 10.4% in 24h, supported by $177M trading volume and ecosystem growth, as the DAO-backed Layer 2 expands DeFi products and maintains a $4B market cap.

Hyperliquid (HYPE): Hyperliquid gained 7.0% in 24h, fueled by $278M trading volume and increased user activity on its zero-gas-fee Layer 1 DEX, reaching a $9.9B market cap and 336M circulating supply.

Smart Money Movements

A Bitcoin whale accumulated $600 million in ETH, BTC, and SOL, including 150,466 ETH ($491M), 1,000 BTC ($92.6M), and 212,907 SOL ($27.8M), with additional limit orders for 40,000 ETH and 50,000 SOL.

Galaxy Digital transferred 1,900 BTC worth $175.2 million to a new wallet over the past three days, highlighting ongoing large-scale institutional transactions in the Bitcoin market.

Northern Trust held 1.488 million shares of MicroStrategy, valued at $260 million, reflecting continued institutional exposure to Bitcoin through equity proxies.

Bitcoin accumulation addresses acquired 75,000 BTC in early December, bringing their total holdings to approximately 315,000 BTC, signaling increased long-term accumulation by major holders.

A crypto whale, address 0xb31, opened a 5x leveraged long on BTC worth $92.32 million and a 20x leveraged long on SOL worth $13.2 million, with current unrealized profits of $10.4 million.

Events to Watch

Dec 12 (Fri)

Dec 12 (Fri)

Dec 12 (Fri)

Dec 15 (Mon)

Dec 16 (Tue)

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