Rewards Hub I. Crypto Market Overview
Key Takeaways
1.
Macro Environment
The Federal Reserve is set to cut rates by 25bps to 3.5%-3.75%, but deep FOMC divisions and missing inflation data heighten policy uncertainty. This increases volatility for risk assets, including crypto. Meanwhile, China’s CPI rebound signals improving global demand, supporting risk sentiment.
2.
Crypto Market
The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with BTC down 4.4% to $97,474 and ETH dropping 9.3% to $3,144.86, pressured by risk-off flows ahead of the FOMC. Major altcoins like SOL (-8.7%), DOGE (-7.8%), and XRP (-8.6%) also fell. Monero outperformed, limiting losses to -2.5%, while Pudgy Penguins lagged at -10.6%. Weak sentiment and macro uncertainty drove the selloff.
3.
Today's Outlook
Key events today include the FOMC’s expected 25bps rate cut to 3.5%-3.75% and the release of updated economic projections, both likely to drive volatility. Additionally, the LINEA token unlock, with a $571.9M fully diluted valuation, may impact altcoin liquidity and sector sentiment.
Fear and Greed Index
80.00% Annual Percentile
25 Fear
Total Crypto Market Cap
$3.15T
Total Market Trading Volume
$152.30B
Altcoin Season Index
0.00%
Quarterly Percentile
17 / 100
Total Futures Market Open Interest
3.46B
Futures
830.05B
Perpetuals
II. Industry Updates
Macro-economic Policies
1.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its final 2025 meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%. This move, widely anticipated by markets, is likely to have a muted immediate impact on crypto prices as it is already priced in, but future guidance on the rate path could drive volatility in BTC and DeFi liquidity.
2.
Significant internal division within the FOMC has emerged, with some members opposing further rate cuts due to persistent inflation and others citing labor market weakness. This policy uncertainty increases volatility in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as traders adjust positions based on perceived Fed direction.
3.
The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, such as October and November CPI, forcing the Fed to make decisions with incomplete information. This data gap heightens market uncertainty and could amplify short-term volatility in both traditional and crypto markets.
4.
Bank of America forecasts the potential launch of a Reserve Management Bond-Buying Program (RMP) by the Fed, with monthly purchases of $45-60 billion in short-term Treasuries and MBS. If implemented, this would inject additional liquidity, potentially supporting risk-on sentiment and boosting crypto market flows.
5.
China's November CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, signaling a moderate rebound in domestic demand. This improvement in Chinese consumer sentiment may support global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, by reducing deflationary pressures and stabilizing macroeconomic outlooks.
Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends
3.
Streamex (NASDAQ: STEX) joins Solana's Project Open to establish a regulated framework for real-world asset and GLDY token trading, signaling growing institutional focus on compliant tokenization.
Trending Tokens
1.
Monero (XMR): Monero surged 11.5% in 24h with $208M volume, driven by renewed privacy demand and increased trading on major exchanges, pushing its market cap to $7.47B.
2.
MemeCore (M): MemeCore rose 7.7% in 24h, reaching $1.79B market cap and $20.4M volume, fueled by community engagement and its unique Proof of Meme consensus rewards.
3.
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU): Pudgy Penguins climbed 6.8% in 24h with $310M trading volume, supported by strong NFT community activity and recent airdrop events boosting user participation.
Smart Money Movements
2.
SpaceX transferred 1,021 BTC, valued at $94.48 million, to Coinbase Prime for custody, signaling continued large-scale institutional engagement with Bitcoin.
5.
Wintermute transferred 728.84 ETH, worth $2.418 million, to the Fidelity FETH ETF, indicating ongoing institutional accumulation of Ethereum.
Events to Watch
Dec 10 (Wed)
FOMC to announce a 25bps interest rate cut to 3.5%-3.75%; release of economic projections; Linea token unlock with $571.9M FDV.
Dec 11 (Thu)
Aptos (APT) token unlock worth $21M, potentially impacting altcoin liquidity; US interest rate decision watch party for crypto market.
Dec 12 (Fri)
$19.8M APT token unlock (1.5% of market cap) may create sell pressure; US SEC to decide on VanEck spot Avalanche ETF approval; HashKey IPO subscription closes.
Dec 15 (Mon)
US monthly jobs report for November; China to release industrial production and retail sales data; Canada CPI data release.
Dec 16 (Tue)
Germany and Eurozone preliminary PMI data release; US November labor market data to be published.
III. Phemex Market Focus
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