Crypto Market Drops as BTC, ETH Lead Declines Amid ETF Outflows and Macro Uncertainty

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates next week, boosting liquidity expectations. The CFTC's approval of spot and leveraged crypto trading on regulated US exchanges marks a major regulatory milestone. The Indian rupee's record low and Cyprus deflation highlight shifting capital flows and inflation risks.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 4.4% to $97,474 and Ethereum dropping 9.3% to $3,144. Altcoins also fell, led by Solana (-8.7%), Zcash (-4.0%), and TRON (-2.1%). Tether Gold (XAUT) was more resilient, down just 0.5%. The sell-off was driven by renewed ETF outflows, weak spot demand, and risk-off macro sentiment.

Today's Outlook

Today, the US PCE Price Index and Eurozone Q3 GDP data releases will provide key inflation and growth signals ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, likely influencing near-term crypto market volatility and risk appetite.

Fear and Greed Index

76.00% Annual Percentile

27 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.09T

2.05%

Total Market Trading Volume

$125.60B

15.39%

Altcoin Season Index

16.67%

Quarterly Percentile

21 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.83B

2.71%

Futures

810.84B

1.00%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting, with an 87% probability priced in. This anticipated move is fueling expectations of increased liquidity, which could support Bitcoin and DeFi market valuations.

The average US 30-year mortgage rate has dropped to 6.19%, its lowest level this year, reflecting easing borrowing costs. Lower rates may boost consumer spending and risk appetite, potentially increasing capital flows into crypto assets.

The Indian rupee fell below 90 per US dollar for the first time, driven by trade tensions and investor outflows. A weaker rupee raises import costs and inflation, which may prompt capital flight into Bitcoin and stablecoins as alternative stores of value.

Brazil's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 0.1% as high interest rates weighed on services and consumption. The prospect of rate cuts in early 2026 could increase liquidity and risk appetite, supporting crypto market inflows in Latin America.

Cyprus reported deflation of 0.5% in November, with falling prices in electricity and agriculture. Deflationary pressures may encourage local investors to seek higher-yielding assets, including cryptocurrencies, to hedge against declining fiat value.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The U.S. CFTC has approved spot and leveraged spot crypto trading on federally regulated exchanges, marking a historic shift that enhances institutional access and consumer protections, likely boosting market liquidity and investor confidence.

Italy's CONSOB has set December 30, 2025, as the final deadline for crypto firms to apply for MiCA authorization or exit the market, signaling stricter EU-wide compliance and impacting all virtual asset service providers operating in Italy.

The IMF has issued a warning that fragmented national stablecoin regulations pose systemic risks, urging stronger macroeconomic policies and international coordination to safeguard financial stability as stablecoin adoption accelerates.

CertiK's new U.S. policy report highlights that recent federal legislation, including the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts, is creating clearer standards for stablecoin issuance and digital asset custody, shaping compliance expectations for U.S. crypto firms.

Russian lawmakers announced plans to prioritize comprehensive cryptocurrency and stablecoin regulation in 2026, indicating a potential shift toward broader legal access and institutional participation in Russia's digital asset market.

Zcash (ZEC): ZEC surged 6.5% in 24h to $377, with 24h trading volume exceeding $1.25B. The rally is driven by strong market demand and increased privacy coin interest, ranking #19 by market cap.

Tether Gold (XAUT): XAUT rose 0.7% in 24h to $4,231, with 24h volume at $16.35B. The price gain is supported by gold's safe-haven appeal amid market volatility, and XAUT hit a new all-time high in October.

TRON (TRX): TRX climbed 0.7% in 24h to $0.2845, with $696M in trading volume. The increase is fueled by steady DeFi ecosystem growth and high network activity, maintaining a top 10 market cap position.

Smart Money Movements

Bit Digital Inc. reported holding 154,398.7 ETH valued at $461.9 million as of November 30, 2025, with 89.1% staked and 328.5 ETH earned in rewards during November.

A whale staked 24,000 ETH worth $75.94 million after holding for five months, realizing a profit of $15.2 million on the transaction.

Onfolio Holdings allocated $2.45 million to crypto reserves, acquiring 318 ETH, 6,771 SOL, and 5 BTC, and pledged ETH and SOL for yield generation.

SpaceX transferred 1,083 BTC valued at $99.81 million within a week, with 800 BTC ($73.71 million) sent to a new address and no further movement recorded.

A newly created wallet withdrew 13,300 ETH worth $41.47 million from FalconX, drawing attention to potential large-scale fund movements.

Events to Watch

Dec 5 (Fri)

US PCE Price Index and Eurozone Q3 GDP data are released, offering key inflation and growth signals ahead of the Fed meeting.

Dec 9 (Tue)

Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting; markets anticipate discussion of a potential interest rate cut amid economic slowdown.

Dec 10 (Wed)

Federal Reserve expected to announce policy decision; 1.38 billion LINEA tokens ($12.2M) unlock, possibly impacting token price and liquidity.

III. Phemex Market Focus

New Listings

Dec 05: (STABLE/USDT)

Phemex to list STABLE (STABLE) for spot trading with STABLE/USDT pair.

Dec 03: (TRADOOR/USDT)

Phemex lists TRADOOR/USDT for spot trading, offering a fast and friendly way to trade options and perps.

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