Crypto Market Drops as BTC, ETH Lead Declines Ahead of Fed Decision

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps, boosting liquidity and risk appetite. The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady, citing persistent inflation risks and a recovering economy. The US CFTC's crypto collateral pilot signals growing regulatory clarity and institutional adoption.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with BTC down 4.4% to $97,474 and ETH dropping 9.3% to $3,144.86, pressured by ETF outflows and weak risk sentiment. Altcoins like SOL (-8.7%), XRP (-8.6%), and DASH (-6.7%) also fell, while ZEC outperformed, down only 4.0%, driven by ETF conversion news.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the Midnight Network and ADI Chain token generation events, BTCC's integration with TradingView, and the release of the U.S. November employment report, all of which may influence market volatility and sector rotation.

Fear and Greed Index

72.00% Annual Percentile

24 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.08T

1.27%

Total Market Trading Volume

$117.73B

8.66%

Altcoin Season Index

0.00%

Quarterly Percentile

19 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.92B

9.92%

Futures

811.46B

5.22%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut on December 10, with an 87-89% probability priced in. This anticipated monetary easing is likely to boost liquidity and risk appetite, supporting Bitcoin and DeFi market inflows.

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep its cash rate unchanged at 3.60% on December 9, citing persistent inflation risks and a recovering domestic economy. The hawkish tone has led to increased volatility in AUD pairs, indirectly impacting crypto market sentiment and cross-border flows.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October Producer Price Index, creating uncertainty for inflation forecasts. This data gap increases volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum as traders adjust positions based on incomplete macroeconomic signals.

Bank of America forecasts the Federal Reserve will expand its balance sheet by $45 billion per month starting January 2026, aiming to bolster liquidity. Expectations of increased dollar supply may drive capital into digital assets, enhancing DeFi and stablecoin market activity.

Bank of America warns that persistent Japanese yen weakness is likely to continue despite potential Bank of Japan rate hikes. Ongoing yen depreciation could increase Japanese investor demand for Bitcoin and stablecoins as alternative stores of value.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The U.S. CFTC has launched a pilot program allowing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as collateral in regulated derivatives markets, signaling increased regulatory clarity and potential for greater institutional adoption.

BlackRock has officially filed for a staked Ethereum ETF with the SEC, reflecting a shift in regulatory stance and potentially expanding access to on-chain yield products for U.S. investors.

The SEC has closed its investigation into Ondo Finance without charges, removing regulatory uncertainty for real-world asset tokenization and boosting confidence in compliant RWA projects.

U.S. congressional negotiations on comprehensive crypto regulation have stalled due to disagreements over SEC and CFTC jurisdiction, prolonging legal uncertainty and impacting market sentiment.

Russia is considering criminal penalties for illegal crypto mining, aiming to strengthen enforcement and regulatory oversight, which could affect mining operations and market participation in the region.

Zcash (ZEC): ZEC surged 10.3% in 24h to $427.28, driven by ETF conversion news and institutional accumulation, with 24h volume up 33.9% to $1.32B.

MemeCore (M): M rose 8.8% in 24h to $1.34, maintaining top gainer status as on-chain activity and social engagement remain high, with $17.9M 24h volume.

DASH (DASH): DASH gained 6% in 24h to $49.88, supported by renewed institutional interest and privacy coin sector rotation, with 24h volume at $227M.

Smart Money Movements

MicroStrategy purchased 10,624 BTC for $962.7 million at an average price of $90,600, increasing its total holdings to 660,624 BTC, now representing 3% of Bitcoin's total supply.

A newly created wallet received 900 BTC, valued at $81.59 million, from Galaxy Digital, marking a significant institutional transfer within the past 24 hours.

A whale deposited 4,933 ETH, worth $15.32 million, into Coinbase, realizing a profit of $9 million after holding the assets for three years at an average entry price of $1,270 per ETH.

Corporate investors accumulated over 6 million ETH, with 309,000 ETH added in November and another 100,000 ETH this month, reflecting large-scale institutional buying during recent market volatility.

BNB Plus acquired 3,349 BNB for $3 million at an average price of $895 per BNB, raising its total holdings to 18,840 BNB as part of its ongoing treasury strategy.

Events to Watch

Dec 9 (Tue)

Midnight Network and ADI Chain hold token generation events; BTCC integrates with TradingView; U.S. November employment report released.

Dec 10 (Wed)

US Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and Powell speaks; Kyo Finance token generation; IOTA, Linea, DeFi.App token unlocks; Aster S4 buyback starts; BC.GAME hosts Breakpoint Eve party.

Dec 11 (Thu)

Solana Breakpoint 2025 opens in Abu Dhabi; Do Kwon sentencing; Almanak token generation; Bank CEOs meet U.S. senators on crypto legislation.

Dec 12 (Fri)

Aptos (APT) releases 11.31M tokens ($19.88M); Avalanche ETF SEC decision deadline; German, French, Spanish November CPI data released.

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