Crypto Market Drops Ahead of FOMC; BTC, ETH, Altcoins Slide Sharply

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25bps today, potentially boosting crypto liquidity. The CFTC's new pilot allows BTC, ETH, and USDC as collateral in US derivatives markets, supporting institutional adoption. The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady, citing persistent inflation and a recovering private sector.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 4.4% to $97,474 and Ethereum falling 9.3% to $3,144. Altcoins also dropped sharply: Cardano fell 8.4%, FET lost 12.6%, and Pudgy Penguins slid 10.6%. The downturn is driven by risk-off sentiment ahead of the FOMC rate decision and recent ETF outflows.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the US Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision and Powell's press conference, which may drive volatility. LINEA (LINEA) will unlock 6.76% of its supply ($10.76M), and KYO Finance (KYO) will hold its Token Generation Event, both potentially impacting token prices and sector sentiment.

Fear and Greed Index

80.00% Annual Percentile

25 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.15T

2.31%

Total Market Trading Volume

$148.83B

22.70%

Altcoin Season Index

0.00%

Quarterly Percentile

19 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.97B

2.15%

Futures

832.10B

5.58%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut on December 10, which could boost Bitcoin and altcoin prices by increasing market liquidity and risk appetite.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, citing persistent inflation risks and a recovering private sector, which may support continued capital inflows into crypto assets as investors seek higher returns.

Fitch Ratings raised its 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 1.8%, driven by strong IT investment and stock market gains, potentially supporting bullish sentiment in the crypto market through improved macroeconomic outlook.

The British pound held steady ahead of the Fed's rate decision, reflecting global market anticipation; a dovish Fed could weaken the dollar and drive capital into BITCOIN and DeFi protocols as alternative stores of value.

Japan introduced new rules requiring crypto exchanges to hold liability reserves or insurance, enhancing consumer protection and potentially increasing institutional confidence and trading volumes in the Japanese crypto market.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The U.S. Senate will unveil its version of the Crypto Market Structure Act this week, with hearings and a vote scheduled, signaling imminent regulatory changes that could impact market structure and investor confidence.

The CFTC has launched a pilot program allowing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as collateral in regulated U.S. derivatives markets, potentially boosting institutional adoption and market liquidity.

Japan now requires crypto exchanges to hold liability reserves or insurance to compensate customers in case of hacks, strengthening consumer protection and potentially increasing operational costs for exchanges.

HSBC reports intensifying U.S. debate over tokenized stock regulation, with traditional finance pushing for DeFi protocols to be regulated as exchanges, which could restrict DeFi innovation and affect tokenized asset markets.

Tajikistan has criminalized the illegal use of electricity for crypto mining, introducing fines and prison terms, which may deter mining activity and impact local crypto operations.

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU): PENGU surged 9.6% in 24h with $317.8M volume, driven by whale accumulation and strong community momentum, as noted by a 26% rebound and increased exchange activity.

Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET): FET rose 8.3% in 24h with $115M volume, rebounding amid technical recovery and renewed interest in AI tokens, despite recent volatility and alliance news.

Cardano (ADA): ADA jumped 7.8% in 24h with $1.4B volume, fueled by anticipation of the NIGHT airdrop and a $21.4M transfer to Binance, sparking bullish sentiment and strong market performance.

Smart Money Movements

Ethena Labs withdrew 1.59 billion ENA tokens worth $443.33 million from Coinbase Prime, marking a major asset shift by the protocol.

Bitmine purchased 138,452 ETH in the past week, increasing its total Ethereum holdings to 3,864,951 ETH, with a combined crypto and cash reserve of $13.2 billion.

MicroStrategy acquired 10,624 BTC for $962.7 million at an average price of $90,600, raising its total Bitcoin holdings to 660,624 BTC.

A whale transferred 553 BTC valued at $51.7 million from an unknown wallet to Coinbase Institutional, indicating significant institutional positioning.

Cobo Wallet received a transfer of 116,022,138 USDT, approximately $116.05 million, from an unknown source, highlighting ongoing large-scale stablecoin movements.

Events to Watch

Dec 10 (Wed)

US Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision and Powell's press conference; Linea (LINEA) unlocks 6.76% supply ($10.76M); Kyo Finance (KYO) Token Generation Event.

Dec 11 (Thu)

Solana Breakpoint 2025 conference opens in Abu Dhabi; CEOs of major US banks meet senators on crypto legislation; Almanak (ALMANAK) Token Generation Event ($411.95M); Do Kwon sentencing.

Dec 12 (Fri)

Aptos (APT) releases 11.31M tokens ($19.88M); US SEC deadline for VanEck spot Avalanche ETF approval; German, French, Spanish CPI and UK GDP data released.

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