Crypto Market Dips as US CPI Looms, Gold Plunges, and Russia Legalizes Crypto Trade

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US government shutdown has halted most economic data, making the upcoming CPI the sole focus for Fed policy and crypto volatility. Gold's sharp 6% drop signals reduced safe-haven demand and rising risk appetite, potentially boosting crypto liquidity. Russia's legalization of crypto for international trade is set to increase global transaction volumes and support Bitcoin as a sanctions-resistant asset.

Crypto Market

The crypto market is broadly lower over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 2.26% to $107,790 and Ethereum falling 3.65% to $3,804, pressured by ETF outflows and macro uncertainty. Altcoins also declined, with notable drops in Chainlink (-5.61%), Arbitrum (-4.46%), and FET (-7.64%). Aptos (+3.86%) and Ethena (+1.58%) outperformed, driven by ecosystem growth and DeFi inflows, while meme coins saw speculative gains.

Today's Outlook

Today, the Federal Reserve releases Federal Funds Data, a key US monetary policy indicator that could impact both the USD and crypto markets. No major token unlocks or high-impact project launches are scheduled for today, keeping macro data in focus.

Fear and Greed Index

24.00% Annual Percentile

33 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.66T

0.08%

Total Market Trading Volume

$229.61B

34.31%

Altcoin Season Index

50.00%

Quarterly Percentile

29 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.46B

1.27%

Futures

893.78B

2.57%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The U.S. government shutdown has halted most economic data releases, making the September CPI report on October 24 the sole key indicator for the Federal Reserve. This CPI print is expected to drive short-term volatility in Bitcoin and DeFi markets, as traders position for potential Fed rate moves.

Gold prices experienced their largest single-day drop in 12 years, falling over 6% to $4,120/oz, as investors booked profits ahead of the U.S. CPI release. This sharp correction has reduced safe-haven demand, increasing risk appetite and potentially boosting crypto market liquidity.

Russia has officially legalized cryptocurrency for international trade, enabling cross-border settlements with digital assets amid Western sanctions. This policy shift is expected to increase global crypto transaction volumes and support Bitcoin as a sanctions-resistant payment rail.

Russia has achieved 90-95% de-dollarization in trade with China and India, settling most transactions in local currencies. This trend accelerates the global move away from the U.S. dollar, potentially increasing demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin as alternative stores of value.

The upcoming U.S. CPI release is the only major macro data point before the next Fed meeting, with futures markets pricing in a high probability of a rate cut. A softer CPI could trigger renewed ETF inflows and a Bitcoin rally, while a higher print may pressure risk assets and DeFi liquidity.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Hong Kong's SFC has officially approved the first Solana spot ETF, expanding regulated crypto investment options in Asia and increasing institutional access to altcoins.

US lawmakers and major crypto firms are meeting on Capitol Hill to discuss new regulatory frameworks, signaling potential changes in market structure and investor protection.

Asia's leading stock exchanges are tightening rules on crypto treasury listings, with Hong Kong, India, and Australia rejecting firms holding excessive Bitcoin, impacting corporate crypto strategies.

The EU Systemic Risk Board has called for stricter stablecoin regulations, warning that large-scale stablecoin outflows could threaten financial stability and the eurozone's digital finance ambitions.

FATF-compliant Virtual Asset Service Providers are gaining traction globally, with over 40 jurisdictions highly compliant, enhancing security and regulatory clarity for crypto transactions.

Aptos (APT): Aptos rose 3.9% in 24h to $3.35, with $185M trading volume. The gain follows strong support at $3.18 and recent ecosystem growth, including new DeFi integrations and increased developer activity.

Ethena (ENA): Ethena climbed 1.6% in 24h to $0.456, with $550M in trading volume. The price rebound is driven by high TVL ($11.5B) and sustained demand for its synthetic dollar protocol amid DeFi sector inflows.

42MemeCore (42M): 42MemeCore led Top Gainers with an 8.7% 24h surge to $2.27 and $20.8M volume, likely fueled by speculative trading and meme coin momentum, though no major project news was identified.

Smart Money Movements

LuBian mining pool transferred 15,959 BTC worth $1.83 billion to four wallets on October 22, highlighting major on-chain Bitcoin movement.

A mysterious whale increased a Bitcoin short position to 299.69 BTC, valued at $32.48 million, opening at $108,200 per BTC.

Andrew Kang opened a new 25x leveraged long position on Ethereum, holding 1,455 ETH valued at $5.6 million, marking his sixth directional change in five days.

A Solana whale acquired $369 million in SOL across four transactions as the price approached a key five-year support level.

Galaxy Digital transferred $156.5 million USDC to an unknown wallet, reflecting significant institutional capital movement within the crypto market.

Events to Watch

Oct 22 (Wed)

Federal Reserve releases Federal Funds Data, a key U.S. monetary policy indicator impacting USD and crypto markets; AdLunam LUNAM launches Social IDO on Spores with $2.14M valuation.

Oct 23 (Thu)

CreatorBid BID unlocks 369,800 tokens ($17,228); Bitcoin Capital Summit at Plan ₿ Week in Lugano explores Bitcoin as an institutional asset.

Oct 24 (Fri)

U.S. September CPI-W data released, crucial for 2026 COLA; APRO AT airdrop of 23M tokens; Orochi Network ON TGE with 220M tokens; Plan ₿ Forum in Lugano discusses Bitcoin and digital finance.

Oct 26 (Sun)

Money 20/20 Conference in Las Vegas features fintech leaders and payment innovation; Gamma Summit by Thalex and Bitfinex Derivatives focuses on Bitcoin derivatives for institutional investors.

Oct 27 (Mon)

33.43M GRASS tokens unlock (10.7% of supply); Stablecoin Day in Las Vegas highlights stablecoin adoption, cross-border payments, and AI integration in autonomous economies.

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