CFTC Expands Stablecoin Rules as Crypto Market Rebounds; BTC, ETH Surge

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The CFTC has expanded stablecoin rules, allowing US national trust banks to issue USD-pegged stablecoins, deepening integration with DeFi. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady, but a 50bps cut remains possible, influencing crypto liquidity. Rising US policy uncertainty and inflation risks are increasing volatility for both the US dollar and crypto valuations.

Crypto Market

The crypto market rebounded in the past 12 hours, with BTC up 3.14% to $71,157 and ETH rising 3.57% to $2,117, driven by renewed institutional inflows and improved risk sentiment. Altcoins showed mixed performance; ASTER (ASTER) surged 19.05%, LayerZero (ZRO) gained 8.58%, and Decred (DCR) rose 7.95%, all supported by strong on-chain activity and protocol upgrades. Meme and DeFi tokens lagged as capital rotated into high-utility assets.

Today's Outlook

No major token unlocks or protocol launches are scheduled for today. Market participants are closely watching for signals ahead of the Liquidity 2026 Institutional Summit in Hong Kong tomorrow, which may influence institutional sentiment and capital flows.

Fear and Greed Index

16.00% Annual Percentile

8 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.42T

2.89%

Total Market Trading Volume

$111.88B

41.80%

Altcoin Season Index

0.00%

Quarterly Percentile

21 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.81B

5.23%

Futures

533.58B

6.93%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

CME FedWatch shows a 32.5% probability of 50bps Fed rate cuts in 2026, with a 23.2% chance of a 25bps cut at the March FOMC, impacting BTC and DeFi liquidity expectations.

The Economist warns the US dollar faces rising risks from policy uncertainty and inflation, raising volatility for BTC and stablecoin valuations in crypto markets.

CFTC expands stablecoin rules, allowing national trust banks to issue USD-pegged stablecoins, supporting further integration of stablecoins into DEFI and on-chain settlements.

India's central bank holds key rates steady as growth remains robust, supporting INR stability and potentially moderating capital flows into crypto assets from the region.

Japan's GPIF reports $103bn investment gain in Q4 2025, driven by equity rallies; strong pension fund performance may boost institutional confidence in digital asset allocations.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The CFTC has expanded its regulatory framework to allow national trust banks to issue USD-pegged stablecoins, enhancing integration of stablecoins into the US financial system and boosting institutional confidence.

Vietnam has proposed a 0.1% tax on all cryptocurrency transactions, signaling a move toward stricter oversight and potentially impacting trading activity and investor sentiment in the region.

China has introduced a regulatory framework for tokenized real-world assets (RWA), providing clearer guidelines for blockchain integration with traditional finance and supporting innovation in asset tokenization.

Senator Cynthia Lummis reaffirmed efforts to close loopholes enabling illicit use of digital assets, reflecting ongoing US legislative focus on anti-money laundering and market integrity.

Aster (ASTER): ASTER surged 17.8% in 24h, driven by high trading volume of $222M and recent deflationary staking model shift, boosting capital efficiency and user engagement.

LayerZero (ZRO): ZRO rose 9.3% in 24h with $66.7M volume, supported by growing adoption of its omnichain interoperability protocol and increased cross-chain DeFi activity.

Decred (DCR): DCR gained 7.8% in 24h, reaching $24.60 with $6.66M volume, as investors responded to its hybrid PoW/PoS governance and renewed interest in decentralized treasury models.

Smart Money Movements

A newly created wallet withdrew 30,000 ETH worth $63.48 million from Binance, indicating significant strategic positioning by a large holder.

TrendResearch liquidated its entire 651,000 ETH position, transferring the final $44.69 million to Binance and repaying $1.01 billion in debt.

An unidentified entity accumulated 53,544.2 ETH valued at $111 million within 24 hours, with total purchases since February 1 reaching $133 million.

A whale withdrew $126 million from exchanges within 30 hours during market panic, signaling aggressive accumulation amid retail fear.

Bitmine acquired 20,000 ETH worth $41.98 million during a market downturn, demonstrating continued institutional confidence in Ethereum.

Events to Watch

Feb 9 (Mon)

MegaETH mainnet launches; Liquidity 2026 Institutional Summit convenes in Hong Kong, gathering major financial market participants.

Feb 10 (Tue)

Shanghai releases January CPI and PPI data; Consensus Hong Kong summit by CoinDesk focuses on digital assets and macro outlook.

Feb 11 (Wed)

US January Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI data to be released, key for market direction; Solana Accelerate APAC Consensus Hong Kong event.

Feb 12 (Thu)

Coinbase will announce Q4 2025 financial results, providing insights into institutional crypto adoption and exchange performance.

Feb 13 (Fri)

US January Consumer Price Index (CPI) official release, including headline and core inflation, will impact global risk sentiment.

Table of Contents