BTC Slides, ETH Outperforms as FOMC and Major Token Unlocks Loom

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Japan's FSA may allow banks to hold crypto, signaling rising institutional demand. Kenya's new VASP law introduces licensing for exchanges, boosting regulatory clarity in Africa. The UK tax authority's crackdown on crypto tax evasion increases compliance pressure for investors.

Crypto Market

The crypto market remains mixed over the past 12 hours. BTC trades at $106,991 (-0.07%), pressured by ETF outflows and risk-off sentiment, while ETH outperforms at $3,871 (+0.11%) on DeFi strength. Altcoins show divergence: PUMP (+8.98%), MYX (+6.06%), and FLR (+5.59%) lead gains, driven by buybacks, TVL growth, and ecosystem integration, respectively.

Today's Outlook

Today's key events include the FOMC press release and EU CPI (YoY) data, both likely to impact global risk sentiment. Major token unlocks for CONX, ZRO, XPL, and MBG—totaling over $100M—may increase market liquidity and volatility.

Fear and Greed Index

18.00% Annual Percentile

25 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.62T

0.31%

Total Market Trading Volume

$109.17B

55.09%

Altcoin Season Index

0.00%

Quarterly Percentile

22 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.43B

1.53%

Futures

877.71B

6.62%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The UK tax authority has issued 65,000 warning letters for crypto tax evasion, signaling stricter enforcement and potentially increasing sell pressure on digital assets.

Japan's Financial Services Agency is considering allowing banks to hold and invest in cryptocurrencies, which could boost institutional demand and liquidity in the crypto market.

Kenya has passed a new Virtual Asset Service Providers law, fundamentally reshaping the digital asset landscape and potentially fostering greater crypto adoption in Africa.

Japan's three largest banks plan to launch a yen-pegged stablecoin for payments, a move that may enhance stablecoin utility and drive further integration of crypto with traditional finance.

The European Central Bank president advocates for a European digital asset market and digital euro, aiming to strengthen financial stability and reduce reliance on foreign digital tokens, which could impact euro-denominated crypto trading.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The UK's tax authority HMRC has issued 65,000 warning letters to suspected crypto tax evaders, signaling stricter enforcement and likely increasing compliance costs for UK investors.

Kenya has enacted a Virtual Asset Service Providers law, introducing licensing and oversight for crypto exchanges and custodians, which may boost institutional confidence but challenge smaller operators.

Japan's Financial Services Agency is considering allowing banks to hold and invest in cryptocurrencies, potentially increasing institutional adoption and market legitimacy in Japan.

Nasdaq's proposal to launch tokenized securities faces criticism from Ondo Finance over transparency concerns, raising questions about fair access and regulatory clarity for tokenized assets in the US.

Japan's three largest banks plan to launch a yen-pegged stablecoin for corporate payments, reflecting regulatory support for stablecoins and likely enhancing digital asset integration in traditional finance.

PUMP.fun (PUMP): PUMP.fun surged 9% in 24h to $0.00389, driven by $138M in token buybacks since July, covering 3% of supply and boosting market cap to $1.37B.

MYX Finance (MYX): MYX Finance rose 5.8% in 24h to $2.93, with 24h trading volume at $40M and TVL reaching an all-time high of $27M, reflecting strong asset accumulation.

Flare (FLR): Flare gained 5.8% in 24h to $0.0178, with $13M trading volume; recent integration with Xaman wallet enables direct FXRP minting, enhancing ecosystem utility.

Smart Money Movements

A crypto whale known as '7 Siblings' purchased 2,664 ETH for $10 million at $3,754 each, using a $20 million USDC loan, with the remaining $10 million reserved for further acquisitions.

Hyperliquid led 2025 altcoin buybacks, spending $644.6 million to repurchase 21.36 million HYPE tokens (2.1% of supply), outpacing LayerZero and Pump.fun in total buyback value.

Bitcoin treasury companies faced valuation reassessments as investors shifted focus to transparent holdings and risk management, with firms enhancing liquidity buffers and disclosures to meet new standards.

Ripple transferred $500 million in XRP as part of its $1 billion treasury initiative, aiming to boost global corporate liquidity and institutional adoption, with $30 billion in XRP inflows reported on-chain.

Retail investors suffered $17 billion in losses as Bitcoin holding company stocks, such as Metaplanet and Strategy, saw premiums collapse, with Strategy's stock now trading at 1.4x its Bitcoin holdings.

Events to Watch

Oct 19 (Sun)

FOMC press release scheduled; EU CPI (YoY) data release; $CONX, ZRO, XPL, MBG tokens unlock over $100M, may impact market liquidity.

Oct 20 (Mon)

Solana to announce potential payment card; China to release Q3 GDP, retail sales, industrial production, and unemployment data; China's Fourth Plenum begins.

Oct 21 (Tue)

Zebu Live 2025 in London; MANTRA (OM) launches tokenized real estate project; Canada releases year-over-year inflation data.

Oct 22 (Wed)

UK releases Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year data, a key indicator for Bank of England policy decisions.

Oct 23 (Thu)

UK, Canada, and Japan to release October inflation and CPI data, influencing global monetary policy outlook.

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