BTC Holds $68K as Brazil's Bitcoin Reserve Plan and ARB Unlock Shape Market

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Brazil's plan for a 1M BTC reserve has lifted sentiment and signals rising institutional adoption. US January CPI at 2.4% has fueled hopes for earlier Fed rate cuts, supporting risk assets. Ongoing US crypto policy deadlock and delayed regulation continue to limit institutional inflows and keep Bitcoin range-bound.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw mixed performance over the past 12 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $68,723, down 1.47%, while Ethereum (ETH) is at $1,966.58, falling 5.47%, both pressured by ETF outflows and weak spot demand. Among altcoins, KITE (KITE) rose 6.53%, PI Network (PI) gained 3.44%, and PEPE (PEPE) dropped 8.60%, with KITE's gains driven by AI payment narratives and PEPE's decline reflecting fading memecoin momentum.

Today's Outlook

Today, Japan will release preliminary Q4 2025 GDP data, which may influence global risk sentiment. Additionally, a major ARB token unlock to the DAO treasury is scheduled, potentially introducing significant sell pressure and impacting DeFi sector volatility.

Fear and Greed Index

34.00% Annual Percentile

13 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.35T

1.81%

Total Market Trading Volume

$110.32B

31.08%

Altcoin Season Index

75.00%

Quarterly Percentile

33 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.61B

2.16%

Futures

367.32B

2.43%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

Brazil's proposal to establish a sovereign Bitcoin reserve of up to 1 million BTC over five years has boosted market sentiment, supporting BTC price near $70,000 and signaling potential for increased institutional adoption and DeFi liquidity.

US January CPI data showed a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, below expectations, fueling hopes for earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts and driving a rebound in risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.

India's central bank (RBI) maintained its repo rate at 5.25%, citing strong economic growth and controlled inflation, which supports capital inflows and risk appetite in emerging market crypto sectors.

Russia's central bank announced a formal study on a national stablecoin for 2026, reflecting a shift in monetary policy as sanctions pressure grows, potentially impacting global stablecoin flows and cross-border crypto settlements.

Recent US crypto policy deadlock and delayed enforcement of the GENIUS Act have limited institutional capital inflows, keeping Bitcoin range-bound and increasing market sensitivity to macroeconomic signals.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Hong Kong introduced a new regulatory framework for perpetual contracts and will issue stablecoin licenses next month, aiming to attract digital asset investment and boost market confidence.

The European Union's MiCA and DAC8 regulations enter full enforcement in 2026, requiring all crypto service providers to obtain licenses and report tax data, increasing compliance costs and reducing anonymity.

Virginia lawmakers passed a crypto kiosk regulation bill mandating licensing, transaction limits, and ID checks to combat fraud, potentially setting a precedent for US state-level consumer protection.

Russia's finance ministry confirmed a draft law to regulate its $130B crypto market will be filed by March, with a July 1 deadline for passage, signaling a shift from unregulated to licensed operations.

The US CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate due to disputes over stablecoin yield restrictions, prolonging regulatory uncertainty and limiting institutional capital inflows into the crypto market.

PEPE (PEPE): PEPE surged 16% in 24h with $1.28B volume, driven by renewed memecoin interest and high on-chain activity, ranking #38 by market cap.

PI Network (PI): PI rose 12% in 24h, reaching $0.184 with $73.7M volume, as user adoption and mobile mining ecosystem expansion boost demand.

Kite (KITE): KITE gained 11% in 24h, hitting $0.204 and $212M volume, fueled by AI payment blockchain narrative and strong trading momentum.

Smart Money Movements

Strategy purchased 1,142 BTC for $90 million, raising total holdings to 714,644 BTC valued at $49.36 billion, despite a $5.1 billion unrealized loss.

A whale acquired 7,301 ETH worth $15.14 million from OKX, adding to previous large-scale ETH accumulations and signaling continued confidence in Ethereum.

A newly created wallet spent $2.75 million USDC to buy 21.11 million WLFI tokens at $0.13 each, retaining $11.21 million USD1 for potential further deployment.

A whale purchased 640,000 UNI tokens valued at $2.29 million from OKX, highlighting ongoing large-scale interest in Uniswap's governance token.

A $300 million USDC transfer occurred between two unknown wallets, drawing attention to significant stablecoin movement within the crypto ecosystem.

Events to Watch

Feb 16 (Mon)

Japan will release preliminary Q4 2025 GDP data; ARB token unlock to DAO treasury may introduce sell pressure.

Feb 18 (Wed)

US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) January meeting minutes and January industrial production data will be released.

Feb 19 (Thu)

Federal Reserve will release monetary policy meeting minutes; US weekly jobless claims and December 2025 trade balance data will be published; Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision.

Feb 20 (Fri)

US Q4 2025 GDP preliminary data, December PCE price index, personal income and spending, and key Eurozone, UK, and German macro data will be released.

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