BTC, ETH Lead Crypto Selloff as ETF Outflows and Macro Risks Hit Market

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and uncertainty over a December rate cut are fueling risk-off sentiment and crypto volatility. Asia-Pacific markets see regulatory tightening, with Hong Kong expanding compliant crypto access and new insurance products for digital assets. Strong Australian economic data supports AUD stability, attracting capital to regional crypto markets.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with BTC down 4.43% to $97,474 and ETH falling 9.27% to $3,144.86, pressured by ETF outflows and risk-off macro sentiment. Altcoins also dropped, led by ICP (-5.76%), FIL (-6.88%), and HYPE (-3.60%), despite strong narratives in DeFi and AI sectors. The DeFi sector was the least negative, with ICP and FIL showing high volumes but unable to resist the broader sell-off.

Today's Outlook

Today, Fidelity launches its Solana spot ETF ($FSOL) and Franklin Templeton debuts the spot XRP ETF (EZRP) on Cboe BZX, both expected to impact institutional flows and sector sentiment. Datagram's DGRAM airdrop distributes 14M tokens, potentially driving volatility in related markets.

Fear and Greed Index

66.00% Annual Percentile

17 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.12T

3.16%

Total Market Trading Volume

$202.27B

24.63%

Altcoin Season Index

75.00%

Quarterly Percentile

32 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

4.26B

0.87%

Futures

777.01B

9.23%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Reserve Bank of Australia signaled an extended pause in its monetary policy, maintaining the 3.6% cash rate due to robust economic data. This stance supports AUD stability and may limit short-term DeFi and crypto volatility in the Asia-Pacific region.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocated for a 25bp rate cut at the December FOMC, citing a cooling labor market and inflation near target. This dovish shift could boost BTC and altcoin liquidity if implemented, but market odds for a cut remain below 50%.

The probability of a US Fed rate cut in December stands at 42.9%, with markets pricing in a 57.1% chance of no change. Uncertainty over US monetary policy is contributing to increased volatility and risk-off sentiment in crypto markets, impacting BTC and DeFi flows.

A hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve has triggered a broad risk-off move, with Bitcoin dropping 24% from its recent high. Tighter US monetary policy is reducing market liquidity, negatively affecting crypto asset prices and trading volumes.

Australia's strong employment and housing data, as reflected in the RBA minutes, have diminished expectations for imminent rate cuts. This supports AUD strength and may attract capital inflows to regional crypto markets, stabilizing DEFI and NFT activity.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

AMINA (Hong Kong) Limited has received an upgraded SFC license, allowing it to offer compliant crypto trading and custody to professional investors, signaling increased regulatory acceptance and institutional access in Hong Kong.

PYUSD's circulating supply surged 22% this week, driven by PayPal's user base and regulatory clarity, making it the sixth-largest stablecoin and reflecting growing confidence in regulated stablecoin products.

Hanwha General Insurance is launching a crypto hacking insurance product for top cryptocurrencies, enhancing investor protection and setting new compliance standards for exchange security in the retail market.

Asia-Pacific markets are closely monitoring increased regulatory scrutiny on digital assets, with compliance and enforcement risks rising due to reports of illicit activities, impacting investor sentiment and market positioning.

Internet Computer (ICP): ICP surged over 15% in 24h, with trading volume exceeding $624M. The rally is driven by strong DeFi and AI integration narratives, plus a 150% YoY increase in protocol activity.

Filecoin (FIL): FIL rose 7.8% in 24h, with $582M in trading volume. Growth is fueled by expanding decentralized storage demand and recent partnerships in AI and GPU leasing for Web3 infrastructure.

Hyperliquid (HYPE): HYPE gained 2% in 24h, with $418M in volume. The increase is linked to its high-performance Layer 1 launch, zero gas fees, and growing user base in on-chain perpetual trading.

Smart Money Movements

MicroStrategy purchased 8,178 BTC for $835.6 million at an average price of $102,171 per coin, raising its total Bitcoin holdings to 649,870 BTC valued at $48.37 billion.

BitMine acquired 54,156 ETH for $168.98 million last week, increasing its total Ethereum reserves to 3,559,879 ETH, representing 2.9% of the circulating supply and valued at $11.1 billion.

A crypto whale bought 10,275 ETH for $31.16 million at an average price of $3,032 per ETH in the past 24 hours, accumulating 13,612 ETH worth $41.89 million since November 12.

El Salvador increased its Bitcoin holdings by 1,098.19 BTC over the past week, bringing its total reserves to 7,474.37 BTC valued at approximately $685 million.

BlackRock transferred 4,880 BTC ($467.19 million) and 54,730 ETH ($175.93 million) to Coinbase, totaling $643 million in digital assets moved in a single transaction.

Events to Watch

Nov 18 (Tue)

Fidelity launches Solana spot ETF ($FSOL); Franklin Templeton debuts spot XRP ETF (EZRP) on Cboe BZX; Datagram DGRAM airdrop distributes 14M tokens.

Nov 19 (Wed)

Federal Reserve releases October FOMC meeting minutes, offering key insights into monetary policy; NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 earnings report after market close.

Nov 20 (Thu)

US September jobs report, Nonfarm Payrolls, and unemployment data released; Bitwise launches spot XRP ETF; ZRO unlocks 25.71M tokens ($36.76M); KAITO unlocks 8.35M tokens ($6.16M).

Nov 22 (Sat)

TON unlocks $66.95M in tokens, leading a major weekly unlock wave; MBG unlocks 15.84M tokens ($7.23M), testing market liquidity.

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