BTC, ETH Edge Higher; Major Token Unlocks and Regulatory Moves Shape Market

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Russian authorities are advancing crypto regulation to license exchanges, aiming to shift significant trading onshore and boost transparency. The ECB is likely to maintain current rates, while a dovish Fed and steady ECB may strengthen the US dollar, slightly pressuring USD-priced cryptocurrencies. Global economic trends and regulatory shifts continue to shape cross-asset flows and risk sentiment.

Crypto Market

The crypto market shows mild gains, with BTC up 0.31% at $68,903 and ETH rising 1.82% to $2,002, supported by strong staking and DeFi activity. Altcoins are mixed: ADA and TRX both gain over 1.2%, while MYX drops 10.7%. SOL advances 0.91%, and ARB edges up 0.63% to $0.115, ahead of a major token unlock. Selective rotation into large-cap altcoins and ecosystem tokens is evident, driven by on-chain accumulation and upcoming unlocks.

Today's Outlook

Today's highlights include a 62.5M YZY token unlock (17.24% of supply) and a major ARB unlock, both likely to impact liquidity and volatility. The Jupiter Ecosystem token emissions halt proposal vote and the RBA's February policy meeting minutes may influence risk sentiment and cross-asset flows.

Fear and Greed Index

40.00% Annual Percentile

12 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.36T

0.38%

Total Market Trading Volume

$84.61B

23.33%

Altcoin Season Index

45.45%

Quarterly Percentile

29 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.15B

12.85%

Futures

364.41B

4.09%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

US January CPI slowed to 2.4%, below expectations, easing inflation concerns and supporting risk sentiment in crypto markets as Fed rate cut bets increase.

Chicago Fed's Goolsbee signaled interest rates could fall further if inflation progress continues, boosting expectations for looser monetary conditions and potential crypto market liquidity.

US January jobs report showed payrolls up 130,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%, indicating labor market resilience and reducing immediate pressure for Fed easing, which may temper short-term crypto rallies.

Trump administration is reviewing steel and aluminum tariffs, with potential rollbacks aimed at lowering consumer costs; tariff changes could impact global trade flows and indirectly affect crypto as a risk asset.

UK Q4 GDP grew 0.1%, narrowly avoiding recession; weak growth and persistent inflation may influence Bank of England policy, affecting GBP volatility and cross-asset flows into crypto.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Russian authorities are advancing crypto regulation, aiming to pass a bill this spring to license exchanges and brokers, which could shift significant trading volume onshore and impact market transparency.

A7A5, issuer of a ruble-pegged stablecoin, is expanding operations despite U.S. sanctions, emphasizing compliance with local AML rules; this highlights regulatory arbitrage and ongoing geopolitical risks for stablecoins.

Germany's central bank president advocates for euro-pegged stablecoins and a retail CBDC to strengthen EU payment independence, signaling potential shifts in stablecoin market dominance and regulatory focus.

The Cyprus Supreme Court allowed police access to crypto assets in a $700M fraud probe, reflecting increased cross-border regulatory cooperation and enforcement in crypto-related financial crimes.

The ongoing deadlock between crypto firms and banks over stablecoin regulation, as a White House deadline nears, is increasing market uncertainty and could affect stablecoin integration into the financial system.

Story (STORY): STORY token saw a notable surge in trading activity, but no specific news or event was identified in the past 24 hours. The token powers a blockchain-based charity platform, with 1B tokens in circulation and a focus on community-driven support.

MYX Finance (MYX): MYX Finance experienced a 4.8% price increase in the last 24 hours, reaching $1.94 with a $23.6M trading volume. The protocol enables on-chain perpetual trading and recently expanded collateral support to 20+ chains, driving user growth.

ASTER (ASTER): ASTER maintained high trading volume at $178M and a market cap of $1.79B, with 2.47B tokens circulating. The DEX offers MEV-free trading and supports liquid-staking collateral, but no major event or listing was reported in the last 24 hours.

Smart Money Movements

A $300 million USDC transaction was recorded between two unknown wallets, highlighting significant stablecoin movement within the crypto ecosystem.

Harvard Management Company reduced its Bitcoin ETF holdings by 21%, selling approximately $177 million, and initiated an $86.8 million position in Ethereum ETFs.

Major whales deposited 5,000 BTC ($348.82 million) and 261,024 ETH ($543 million) to Binance, while another whale moved 12,705 BTC ($863 million), indicating increased sell-side pressure.

North Carolina Treasury increased its MicroStrategy holdings by 9,117 shares, bringing its total to 168,688 shares valued at $22.6 million, reflecting further institutional exposure to Bitcoin.

Metaplanet reported a 738% revenue increase to ¥8.91 billion and grew its Bitcoin holdings to 35,102 BTC, but posted a net loss of ¥95 billion (~$633 million) due to unrealized crypto losses.

Events to Watch

Feb 17 (Tue)

Jupiter Ecosystem token emissions halt proposal vote; RBA releases February policy meeting minutes, offering insight into Australia's monetary outlook.

Feb 18 (Wed)

FOMC meeting minutes released, providing key signals on Fed policy; ETHDenver 2026, the largest blockchain BUIDLathon, opens in New BUIDL City.

Feb 19 (Thu)

Aerodrome Finance token unlock for airdrop; Zama presents its 2026 roadmap, highlighting cryptography and blockchain innovation.

Feb 20 (Fri)

Advance US Q4 GDP and Core PCE Price Index released, crucial for Fed rate outlook; $46M ZRO token unlock (5.98% of supply); DeFi Saver co-founder speaks at ETHDenver.

Feb 21 (Sat)

Injective Protocol $INJ community buyback round #226; ETHDenver 2026 concludes, wrapping up major blockchain discussions and hackathons.

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