Bitcoin Slides as ETF Outflows and Regulatory Shifts Hit Crypto Market

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations are rising, with a 23% chance for March, as Kevin Warsh's nomination stirs liquidity concerns. The CFTC's expanded stablecoin collateral rules may boost DeFi liquidity and institutional adoption. Vietnam's proposed crypto tax and China's tightening on stablecoins signal a global trend toward stricter regulation and compliance.

Crypto Market

The crypto market shows mixed performance over the past 12 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $69,153, down 1.1%, while Ethereum (ETH) rises 2.1% to $2,084, supported by DeFi activity. Altcoins are mostly flat to positive; LayerZero (ZRO) leads with a 6.2% gain, Solana (SOL) is up 1.8%, and Midnight (NIGHT) edges up 0.5%. LEO lags, down 4.7%. ETF outflows and regulatory news drive sentiment.

Today's Outlook

China will release January PPI and CPI data today, with PPI (Y-o-Y) at -1.9% and CPI (Y-o-Y) at 0.8%, which could influence global inflation expectations and risk sentiment across crypto and traditional markets.

Fear and Greed Index

16.00% Annual Percentile

8 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.37T

0.84%

Total Market Trading Volume

$144.00B

38.00%

Altcoin Season Index

7.14%

Quarterly Percentile

23 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.78B

4.30%

Futures

523.08B

8.76%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

CME FedWatch shows a 23% probability of a March Fed rate cut, up from 18.4%, as Kevin Warsh's nomination raises concerns about tighter liquidity, impacting crypto market risk sentiment and funding conditions.

The CFTC expanded stablecoin collateral eligibility to include tokens issued by national trust banks, enabling broader use of tokenized collateral in U.S. futures markets and potentially increasing DeFi liquidity.

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis urged banks to adopt stablecoins and digital assets, highlighting their potential to enhance payment efficiency and support new custody services, which could drive further crypto adoption.

The White House will host a second meeting on stablecoin yield rules this week, with outcomes likely to influence stablecoin product design and yield-bearing DeFi protocols in the U.S. market.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The CFTC has updated its guidance to allow stablecoins issued by national trust banks, such as Ripple's RLUSD, to be used as collateral in regulated futures markets, boosting institutional adoption and market confidence.

Vietnam has proposed a 0.1% transaction tax on crypto trades and a 20% corporate tax on crypto profits, alongside strict licensing and capital requirements for exchanges, signaling a move toward formal regulation and increased compliance costs.

The White House will host a second meeting on stablecoin yields, reflecting ongoing U.S. efforts to develop a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which could impact market structure and investor protections.

Senator Cynthia Lummis has urged U.S. banks to adopt stablecoins and digital assets, highlighting their potential for faster payments and improved services, as legislative negotiations over stablecoin regulation continue.

China has tightened its ban on yuan-pegged stablecoins and unauthorized crypto activities, but is creating a regulated path for real-world asset tokenization, impacting offshore token issuers and the broader Asian crypto market.

Midnight (NIGHT): NIGHT surged 15% in the past 24 hours, driven by strong technical momentum as it broke a key resistance pattern, with analysts mapping a path toward $0.08 according to AMBCrypto and CoinGape.

LayerZero (ZRO): ZRO rose 9.6% in 24 hours, supported by high trading volume of $112M and renewed investor interest, though no major protocol news was reported in the last day.

UNUS SED LEO (LEO): LEO posted a 17% uptick in the last 24 hours, with market analysts debating whether the rally is driven by real conviction or beta chasing, as reported by AMBCrypto.

Smart Money Movements

A newly created address withdrew 1,546 BTC worth $106.68 million from Binance, signaling significant whale accumulation within the last 24 hours.

A dormant whale withdrew 34,233 ETH valued at $68.78 million from Binance, marking a major shift of Ethereum from exchange to private storage.

A whale transferred 5,000 BTC, approximately $351.16 million, to Binance, raising speculation about potential large-scale selling or hedging activity.

A significant transfer of 625.7 million USDC occurred between two unknown wallets, highlighting ongoing large-scale stablecoin movements in the crypto ecosystem.

Forward Industries accumulated 7 million SOL, valued at $600 million, leveraging an unlevered balance sheet to consolidate Solana treasury holdings amid market stress.

Events to Watch

Feb 8 (Sun)

China will release January PPI and CPI data, with PPI (Y-o-Y) at -1.9% and CPI (Y-o-Y) at 0.8%, impacting global inflation outlook.

Feb 9 (Mon)

US January CPI report to be released, providing key insights into US inflation trends; Mexico to publish January CPI data, expected to show slight acceleration.

Feb 10 (Tue)

White House to host stablecoin policy meeting with major banks and crypto industry leaders, focusing on stablecoin yields and regulatory framework.

Feb 11 (Wed)

US Nonfarm Payrolls and inflation data for January to be released; China to publish January CPI and PPI figures, both closely watched by global markets.

Feb 12 (Thu)

US Non-Farm Payrolls report and NI-Blockchain Summit 2026 in Northern Ireland, covering blockchain, AI, and sustainability.

III. Phemex Market Focus

New Listings

Feb 06: (RDDT/USDT)

Support for RDDT/USDT futures with up to 10x leverage

Feb 06: (PLTR/USDT)

Support for PLTR/USDT futures with up to 10x leverage

Feb 06: (ORCL/USDT)

Support for ORCL/USDT futures with up to 10x leverage

Feb 06: (AMZN/USDT)

Support for AMZN/USDT futures with up to 10x leverage

Feb 06: (COIN/USDT)

Support for COIN/USDT futures with up to 10x leverage

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