Bitcoin Rises on Whale Accumulation as US Macro Data Looms

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

US Q4 GDP growth slowed to 1.4%, missing forecasts and signaling weaker consumer demand. Persistent core PCE inflation at 3.0% may delay Fed rate cuts, supporting a strong dollar. The White House advances a crypto market bill, increasing regulatory clarity but pressuring stablecoin models.

Crypto Market

The crypto market shows mixed performance as BTC rises 1.7% to $67,035, driven by renewed whale accumulation, while ETH gains 0.8% to $1,940 amid ETF inflows and whale buying. Altcoins diverge: KITE surges 19.0%, MORPHO up 13.0%, and DCR gains 8.0%, led by strong narratives and DeFi integrations.

Today's Outlook

Key US macro data releases today include Q4 GDP, December PCE Price Index, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, all likely to impact USD and crypto market sentiment. No major token unlocks are scheduled for today, keeping focus on macroeconomic catalysts.

Fear and Greed Index

44.00% Annual Percentile

11 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.31T

0.85%

Total Market Trading Volume

$78.59B

4.60%

Altcoin Season Index

58.33%

Quarterly Percentile

33 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.24B

0.49%

Futures

359.28B

3.18%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

US Q4 2025 GDP growth slowed sharply to 1.4%, missing forecasts and reflecting the impact of a government shutdown and weaker consumer spending. This deceleration signals potential headwinds for crypto markets, as slower economic growth may dampen risk appetite and liquidity in digital assets.

US core PCE inflation rose 3.0% year-over-year in December 2025, with a 0.4% monthly increase. Persistent inflationary pressures could delay monetary easing, maintaining a strong US dollar and potentially suppressing Bitcoin and DeFi market inflows.

Prediction markets now assign a 94% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. This expectation of policy stability reduces near-term volatility in crypto markets, but continued high rates may limit upside for BTC and altcoins.

The US trade deficit widened to a five-month high in December 2025, highlighting external imbalances. A larger deficit can pressure the dollar and global liquidity, indirectly affecting crypto market flows and stablecoin demand.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The White House has set a March 1 deadline to advance the Crypto Market Structure Bill, which would ban yield on idle stablecoin balances and grant joint enforcement authority to the SEC, Treasury, and CFTC, increasing regulatory clarity but pressuring stablecoin business models.

US lawmakers are scrutinizing World Liberty Financial, a Trump-linked crypto project, over its national bank charter application and foreign investment ties, raising concerns about political influence and regulatory risk for crypto-banking integration.

Tether's USDT supply has dropped 1.7% in the past month, the largest decline since the FTX collapse, as the EU's MiCA regulation takes effect and market volatility rises, signaling regulatory-driven shifts in stablecoin liquidity.

The UK Financial Conduct Authority has warned investors about 'zombie tokens'—abandoned cryptoassets with no active development—highlighting the lack of consumer protection and the need for stricter regulatory frameworks ahead of new rules expected in September 2026.

Dubai's Land Department has launched Phase Two of its real estate tokenization project on the XRP Ledger, enabling controlled secondary trading and signaling growing regulatory acceptance of blockchain in property markets.

KITE (KITE): KITE surged 18.5% in 24h to $0.273, with $202M volume. The rally is driven by strong AI payment blockchain narrative and new all-time high, attracting over 104,000 holders.

MORPHO (MORPHO): MORPHO rose 12.1% in 24h to $1.53, with $33M volume. Growth is fueled by DeFi lending integrations, including Coinbase adding onchain loans via Morpho and Bitwise launching a USDC vault.

Decred (DCR): DCR gained 8.0% in 24h to $23.82, with $3.7M volume. The increase is supported by renewed interest in hybrid PoW/PoS governance and expanding community engagement in Latin America.

Smart Money Movements

A Bitcoin whale deposited 5,000 BTC worth $335.75 million into Binance, signaling significant movement by large-scale investors.

BlackRock transferred 2,563 BTC ($172.94M) and 49,582 ETH ($97.19M) to Coinbase Prime, totaling nearly $270 million in institutional crypto transactions.

Tether Treasury moved 1.1 billion USDT, equivalent to $1.1 billion, to HTX, marking one of the largest recent stablecoin transfers.

Bitmine acquired 10,000 ETH valued at $19.49 million from Kraken, highlighting ongoing large-scale Ethereum accumulation.

A new wallet withdrew 7,000 ETH worth $13.55 million from Binance, increasing its holdings to 7,100 ETH ($13.74M) in a single transaction.

Events to Watch

Feb 20 (Fri)

The US releases Q4 GDP and December PCE Price Index data at 13:30 GMT; S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash and PMI readings for February also published, impacting USD and market sentiment.

Feb 22 (Sun)

SPACE ID will unlock tokens for Advisors, potentially affecting token supply and market dynamics.

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