Bitcoin Holds $120K as Altcoins Surge; CAKE, ETHFI Lead Gains on DeFi Momentum

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US government shutdown has delayed key economic data, increasing Fed policy uncertainty. Regulatory clarity from the GENIUS Act has driven stablecoin market cap above $300B, boosting DEFI liquidity. Türkiye's 33.3% inflation and global risk-on sentiment are fueling crypto inflows as investors seek alternatives.

Crypto Market

The crypto market is broadly bullish, with Bitcoin up 0.43% to $120,019 and Ethereum up 0.99% to $4,443.68, supported by strong ETF inflows and institutional demand. Altcoins outperformed, led by PancakeSwap (CAKE) up 30.5%, ether.fi (ETHFI) up 13%, and SPX6900 (SPX) up 7.2%, driven by DeFi innovation and increased trading activity.

Today's Outlook

The US September jobs report release remains uncertain due to the government shutdown, halting employment data and impacting market expectations. This data blackout may heighten volatility across crypto and traditional markets as traders await clarity on macroeconomic direction.

Fear and Greed Index

98.00% Annual Percentile

51 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$4.14T

0.94%

Total Market Trading Volume

$199.43B

5.91%

Altcoin Season Index

45.45%

Quarterly Percentile

67 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.11B

13.49%

Futures

1.09T

8.74%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the September jobs report and CPI, increasing uncertainty for the Federal Reserve and potentially impacting Bitcoin and DeFi market volatility.

The U.S. ISM Services PMI for September fell to 50, signaling stagnation in the service sector and raising concerns about economic slowdown, which could drive increased demand for crypto assets as alternative investments.

The stablecoin market cap has surpassed $300 billion, driven by the GENIUS Act's regulatory clarity, boosting investor confidence and enhancing liquidity across DeFi protocols and crypto trading pairs.

Türkiye's annual inflation surged to 33.3% in September, intensifying local currency devaluation and prompting Turkish investors to seek refuge in Bitcoin and stablecoins, increasing crypto market inflows.

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 opened higher on October 3, reflecting short-term risk-on sentiment, which may support crypto market inflows as investors diversify amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has halted SEC reviews and approvals for cryptocurrency ETFs, causing delays for over 90 pending applications and increasing regulatory uncertainty in the crypto market.

The SEC has approved state-chartered trusts to act as crypto custodians, marking a significant regulatory step that could boost institutional confidence and facilitate broader digital asset adoption.

The stablecoin market cap has surpassed $300 billion, driven by the regulatory clarity provided by the GENIUS Act, which has attracted substantial new investment and reinforced the dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins.

Tether has launched USAT, a U.S.-regulated stablecoin, with its headquarters in Charlotte, signaling ongoing expansion and regulatory engagement in the stablecoin sector.

Japan's crypto market is rapidly expanding, with Nomura's Laser Digital seeking a local license amid supportive government reforms and updated crypto fund rules, highlighting Asia's growing regulatory competitiveness.

PancakeSwap (CAKE): PancakeSwap surged 31% in 24h to $3.49 with $791M volume, driven by a new fee-limited earning model and record DEX activity, making it the top gainer.

ether.fi (ETHFI): ether.fi jumped 13% in 24h to $1.76 with $328M volume, fueled by strong DeFi restaking demand and integration with major protocols, boosting user participation.

SPX6900 (SPX): SPX6900 rose 7% in 24h to $1.31 with $64M volume, supported by increased meme coin trading on Solana and growing holder base, reflecting heightened speculative interest.

Smart Money Movements

BlackRock purchased 3,930 BTC worth $466.5 million on October 2, highlighting continued institutional accumulation in Bitcoin.

BitMine acquired 234,846 ETH for nearly $1 billion, raising its total Ethereum holdings to 2.65 million ETH valued at $11 billion.

Metaplanet bought 5,268 BTC for approximately $616 million, making it the fourth-largest public Bitcoin holder with 30,823 BTC.

A crypto whale purchased 2.74 million ASTER tokens for $5 million USDT, now holding 3.07 million ASTER valued at $5.86 million.

A hacker linked to the Coinbase attack spent $22.95 million USDC to acquire 100,913 SOL at an average price of $227 per token.

Events to Watch

Oct 3 (Fri)

US September jobs report release is uncertain due to government shutdown; US employment data release halted, impacting market expectations.

Oct 4 (Sat)

UXLINK holders will vote on Ethereum mainnet on early unlocking of team and treasury tokens to compensate September hack victims.

Oct 6 (Mon)

Forex Expo Dubai 2025 opens at Dubai World Trade Centre; World Liberty Financial launches USD1 stablecoin on Aptos network with debit card; Old Cronoscan version to be shut down.

Oct 7 (Tue)

Merge Madrid 2025, a major blockchain and crypto event, begins in Madrid, Spain, running through October 9.

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