Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High as ETF Inflows and Macro Uncertainty Drive Rally

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US government shutdown has delayed key economic data, fueling demand for alternative assets and driving Bitcoin to new highs. Russia's ruble-backed stablecoin has processed $6B in cross-border flows, highlighting crypto's role in sanction evasion. The ECB signals a possible rate cut if eurozone inflation risks intensify, supporting euro-denominated crypto activity.

Crypto Market

The crypto market remains bullish, with Bitcoin up 0.79% at $124,564 and Ethereum rising 3.19% to $4,670.29, both near all-time highs amid record ETF inflows and macro uncertainty. Altcoins show strong divergence: MYX Finance surged 35.7%, Starknet gained 20.6%, and Mantle rose 13.7%, driven by DeFi activity, protocol upgrades, and ecosystem incentives.

Today's Outlook

Kusama (KSM) will undergo a major network upgrade at 08:00 UTC, potentially impacting Polkadot ecosystem assets. The US August trade deficit data release is expected, with a forecast of -$60.7B, which may influence global risk sentiment and crypto market volatility.

Fear and Greed Index

88.00% Annual Percentile

59 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$4.28T

1.99%

Total Market Trading Volume

$198.91B

2.77%

Altcoin Season Index

50.00%

Quarterly Percentile

65 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.42B

2.59%

Futures

1.05T

0.59%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, increasing uncertainty ahead of the Fed's October FOMC meeting. This data void has driven Bitcoin to a new all-time high above $125,800, as investors seek alternative assets amid unclear monetary policy signals.

The ruble-backed stablecoin A7A5 has reached a $500 million market cap and processed over $6 billion in cross-border transactions, highlighting Russia's use of digital assets to bypass traditional financial channels. This development boosts stablecoin flows and DeFi liquidity, especially in non-USD corridors.

The U.S. dollar has weakened due to the ongoing government shutdown, leading to increased liquidity in the crypto sector. Crypto-related stocks and Bitcoin have benefited, with BTC mining companies reporting higher output and share price gains, reflecting a shift in capital allocation.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that shifts in eurozone inflation risk could justify a slight rate cut if downside risks intensify. This dovish tilt may support euro-denominated crypto trading pairs and enhance DeFi activity in the region.

India's GDP surpassed $4 trillion, and stablecoins are being promoted as a means to cut remittance costs to 1–3% and enable near-instant transfers. This trend could drive stablecoin adoption and on-chain transaction volumes in emerging markets.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The U.S. government shutdown has halted SEC operations, delaying crypto ETF approvals and stalling key regulatory initiatives, increasing market uncertainty and volatility.

The European Union is advancing plans to centralize crypto regulation under ESMA, aiming to unify oversight across member states and reduce market fragmentation, which could boost institutional confidence.

Hong Kong has extended SFC Chief Julia Leung's term to 2028, reinforcing its commitment to strong crypto regulation and stablecoin oversight, supporting its ambition to be a leading digital asset hub.

The U.S. GENIUS Act, enacted in July 2025, has triggered a surge in stablecoin supply and DeFi activity, as regulatory clarity attracts institutional capital and intensifies competition with traditional banks.

Coinbase has applied for a national trust charter to expand regulated payment services, reflecting the industry's push for clearer compliance pathways and broader integration with traditional finance.

MYX Finance (MYX): MYX surged 34% in 24h to $6.19 with $212M volume, rebounding after a 75% crash last week; TVL hit an all-time high of $29M, driven by renewed DeFi trading activity and protocol upgrades.

Starknet (STRK): STRK jumped 19.5% in 24h to $0.18 with $297M volume, outperforming peers as its BTCFi launch enabled Bitcoin staking and new DeFi incentives, boosting ecosystem participation and liquidity.

Mantle (MNT): MNT rose 13.7% in 24h to $2.40 with $579M volume, hitting a new all-time high after integrating a Trump-linked stablecoin and launching a tokenization platform, fueling strong capital inflows.

Smart Money Movements

Metaplanet acquired 5,268 BTC worth $603.7 million last week, raising its total Bitcoin holdings to 30,823 BTC amid the latest market rally.

Bitmine purchased 179,251 ETH valued at $821.75 million, increasing its total Ethereum reserves to 2,830,151 ETH, reflecting aggressive institutional accumulation.

A new wallet linked to Bitmine received 18,366 ETH, approximately $86.36 million, from BitGo, indicating ongoing large-scale Ethereum positioning.

A whale deposited $8.36 million USDC into HyperLiquid and opened a long position on XPL, highlighting significant leveraged activity in the altcoin market.

ZOOZ Power completed a $40 million purchase of 329 BTC on October 6, bringing its total Bitcoin treasury to 854 BTC valued at over $100 million.

Events to Watch

Oct 7 (Tue)

Kusama (KSM) network upgrade at 08:00 UTC; U.S. August trade deficit data to be released, forecast at -$60.7B.

Oct 8 (Wed)

BlackRock to launch iShares Bitcoin ETP in the UK after FCA approval; Federal Reserve to release September FOMC meeting minutes.

Oct 10 (Fri)

Linea will unlock 1.08 billion tokens valued at $29 million, one of the largest single-day token unlocks this week.

Oct 11 (Sat)

Aptos (APT) to unlock 11.31 million tokens worth $59.6 million; ATH to unlock 1.26 billion tokens worth $67.5 million.

Oct 12 (Sun)

Aethir (ATH) will unlock 1.37 billion tokens ($75.07M), the largest unlock this week; major token unlocks for Bittensor, Arbitrum, Connex, QuantixAI, Omni Network, Debridge, and Vana.

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