Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High Above $123K as ETF Inflows Surge

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed key economic data, increasing market uncertainty and volatility. The US dollar's decline has fueled demand for gold and Bitcoin, highlighting their inverse correlation. Strong US economic data and surging stablecoin adoption are driving capital inflows into crypto and DeFi.

Crypto Market

The crypto market rallied, with Bitcoin hitting $123,774 (+1.24%) and Ethereum at $4,518.76 (+0.95%), both reaching new highs on strong ETF inflows and institutional demand. Altcoins outperformed, led by SPX6900 (+11.5%), Mantle (+7.6%), and Injective (+5.2%), driven by meme coin momentum, Layer 2 growth, and DeFi activity.

Today's Outlook

No major token unlocks or high-impact events are scheduled for today. Market participants should monitor routine project updates and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, as these factors may influence short-term volatility and sector rotation.

Fear and Greed Index

92.00% Annual Percentile

58 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$4.19T

0.60%

Total Market Trading Volume

$193.27B

64.27%

Altcoin Season Index

41.67%

Quarterly Percentile

63 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.34B

4.47%

Futures

1.05T

7.67%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The ongoing US government shutdown has halted key economic data releases, including the September jobs report, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and increasing volatility in crypto markets as traders lack macro guidance.

The US dollar index declined amid the shutdown, with safe-haven demand for gold rising and Bitcoin reaching new highs, highlighting the inverse correlation between dollar weakness and crypto asset appreciation.

Stronger-than-expected US economic data, such as falling jobless claims and robust Q2 GDP growth, is complicating expectations for rapid Fed rate cuts, supporting risk-on sentiment and fueling capital inflows into Bitcoin and DEFI assets.

The stablecoin market surpassed $302 billion in capitalization this week, with interest-bearing stablecoins like PayPal's PYUSD growing rapidly; this trend is intensifying competition for deposits and driving liquidity into DeFi protocols.

Eurozone inflation ticked up to 2.2% in September, while US inflation data delays have increased EUR/USD volatility; traders are watching for macro divergence to impact cross-asset flows between crypto and fiat markets.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Mike Selig, a senior SEC official and crypto advocate, is now the leading candidate for CFTC Chair, signaling a potential shift toward more collaborative and transparent U.S. digital asset regulation. This could boost institutional trust and market stability.

The SEC has issued new guidance allowing registered investment advisers to custody crypto assets with state-chartered trust companies, enhancing regulatory clarity and competition. This move is expected to increase institutional participation in the crypto market.

Stablecoin rewards are rapidly growing, with interest-paying stablecoins like PayPal's PYUSD offering up to 4% yields. This trend is pressuring traditional banks to raise deposit rates and is accelerating the adoption of regulated digital assets.

NYDIG analysts have raised concerns about the transparency of reserve reports for USD1, a Trump-linked stablecoin, highlighting the need for improved disclosure standards. Regulatory scrutiny on stablecoins is intensifying, impacting investor confidence.

Germany continues to advance crypto regulation and tax reform, with full legal status for crypto under EU MiCA rules and new reporting requirements coming in 2026. This regulatory clarity is supporting user adoption and institutional engagement in the region.

SPX6900 (SPX): SPX6900 surged 11.5% in 24h with $96.7M volume, driven by strong meme coin momentum and high social media hype, reaching a $1.47B market cap.

Mantle (MNT): Mantle (MNT) rose 7.6% in 24h with $289.5M volume, hitting a new all-time high of $2.13, supported by ecosystem growth and Layer 2 sector strength.

Injective (INJ): Injective (INJ) gained 5.2% in 24h with $137.2M volume, as technical patterns signal a potential breakout and increased DeFi protocol activity.

Smart Money Movements

A whale identified as 0x0fec sold 1,001 ETH ($4.55M) and then opened a 15x leveraged long on 15,023 ETH ($67.8M), signaling a major directional bet on Ethereum.

A major whale completed an ETH trading cycle, selling 80,835 ETH ($360M) since October 2 and now holds $620M in USDC after netting $93.74M in profits.

A whale purchased 7,311 ETH at $4,514 each and deposited $33M into HyperLiquid, now holding 38,275 ETH ($172.9M) and 35.18 WBTC ($4.34M) across wallets.

Trend Research transferred 145,000 ETH ($654M) to Binance over three days, nearly depleting its on-chain ETH balance and realizing $303M in profit.

A whale acquired 1.69M ASTER tokens for $3.14M USDT at $1.86 per token, according to Nansen AI data.

Events to Watch

Oct 7 (Tue)

Fed officials Bostic, Bowman, and Kashkari will deliver speeches; Bubblemaps BMT token unlocks $39,012, 0.06% of supply.

Oct 8 (Wed)

FOMC Minutes will be released at 7:00pm, providing insights into the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

Oct 9 (Thu)

US Jobless Claims data released; FOMC Minutes published, offering key signals on future rate policy; Fed Chair Powell speaks.

Oct 10 (Fri)

Major token unlocks: Linea ($29.6M, 6.57%); Babylon ($17.4M, 24.74%); Phi PHI TGE ($22M); US, Canada labor data released.

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