Bitcoin, Ethereum Rebound; River Surges 15% on Partnership News

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, maintaining liquidity and limiting immediate volatility. A sharp decline in the US dollar and surging gold prices reflect risk aversion, driving capital outflows from crypto. The PBOC will double yuan liquidity for Hong Kong banks, potentially boosting cross-border flows and supporting Asia-based crypto activity.

Crypto Market

The crypto market showed a mixed trend over the past 12 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) rose 0.94% to $88,305, while Ethereum (ETH) gained 1.75% to $2,923.56, both rebounding modestly after recent corrections. RIVER (RIVER) surged 15.34% to $82.37 on new partnership news, Algorand (ALGO) climbed 4% to $0.12188 after a USDC listing, and KAIA (KAIA) was flat at $0.07336. Altcoins were generally mixed, with ecosystem and partnership news driving top gainers.

Today's Outlook

Today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release national, industry, and state GDP data, which may influence macro sentiment. Major token unlocks for SUI, SIGN, EIGEN, and KMNO, each exceeding $10M, could impact liquidity and price action for these assets.

Fear and Greed Index

6.00% Annual Percentile

29 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.98T

1.85%

Total Market Trading Volume

$116.39B

11.24%

Altcoin Season Index

63.64%

Quarterly Percentile

30 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.62B

0.99%

Futures

630.05B

5.23%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% during the January 28 FOMC meeting, with a 99% probability according to prediction markets. This policy stability is expected to maintain current liquidity conditions, limiting immediate volatility in Bitcoin and DeFi markets.

A rare 'rate check' by the New York Fed triggered a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar, with the DXY falling 0.57% and the yen surging. This currency volatility has driven capital flows into GOLD and away from risk assets, contributing to a bearish sentiment in crypto markets and reduced stablecoin market cap.

Gold prices have soared above $5,000 per ounce as investors seek safe-haven assets amid concerns over Fed independence and inflation uncertainty. The shift to hard assets has led to capital outflows from cryptocurrencies, impacting Bitcoin and altcoin liquidity.

The People's Bank of China announced it will double the yuan liquidity facility for Hong Kong banks to 200 billion yuan, effective next week. This move aims to enhance offshore yuan liquidity, potentially increasing cross-border capital flows and supporting stablecoin and tokenized asset activity in Asia-based crypto markets.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is closely monitoring upcoming inflation data, with market speculation of a potential rate hike. Expectations of tighter monetary policy have strengthened the Australian dollar, which could reduce risk appetite and impact crypto market inflows from the Asia-Pacific region.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Europe has begun enforcing the MiCA regulation, providing a unified crypto regulatory framework, which is expected to boost market stability and attract institutional capital.

The U.S. Congress is advancing the CLARITY Act, aiming to clearly divide crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC, potentially reducing legal uncertainty and supporting market innovation.

Japan's Financial Services Agency is reviewing rule changes to allow spot crypto ETFs by 2028, signaling a shift toward regulated digital asset investment and likely increasing institutional participation.

The Netherlands is preparing to tax both realized and unrealized crypto gains from 2028, raising concerns about capital flight and potential negative impacts on local crypto investment.

U.S. regulators are moving toward unified crypto rules, with the SEC and CFTC planning a joint event to harmonize oversight, which could enhance compliance clarity for market participants.

RIVER (RIVER): RIVER surged over 15% in 24h, hitting a new all-time high of $87.73, driven by a 1,900% monthly rally and a new partnership with United Stables to boost $U stablecoin liquidity and cross-ecosystem utility.

Algorand (ALGO): Algorand rose 4% in 24h with trading volume up 74%, following the listing of USDC on Algorand at Kraken exchange, expanding stablecoin access and ecosystem utility.

KAIA (KAIA): KAIA gained 0.3% in 24h and 41% in 2 days, leading crypto gainers after the Finschia and Klaytn merger, which increased circulating supply and positioned Kaia as Asia’s largest Web3 ecosystem.

Smart Money Movements

MicroStrategy acquired 2,932 BTC for $264 million, raising its total Bitcoin holdings to 712,647 BTC as of January 25, 2026, with an average purchase price of $76,037 per BTC.

Bitmain purchased 40,302 ETH for $110 million, increasing its total Ethereum holdings to 4,243,338 ETH, representing 3.52% of the total ETH supply.

BlackRock deposited 1,814.76 BTC worth $159.46 million and 15,112 ETH worth $43.75 million into Coinbase, signaling continued institutional accumulation.

Sharps Technology reported a 7% annual yield on its $250 million Solana staking portfolio, holding approximately 2 million SOL tokens through selected validators.

A prominent Bitcoin investor, #BitcoinOG(1011short), acquired 106,000 ETH valued at $304 million in a single day, highlighting aggressive Ethereum accumulation by major players.

Events to Watch

Jan 27 (Tue)

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases national, industry, and state GDP data; major token unlocks for SUI, SIGN, EIGEN, and KMNO exceed $10M each.

Jan 28 (Wed)

Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and interest rate decision; Bank of Canada announces policy rate decision; Australia releases Q4 inflation data.

Jan 29 (Thu)

FOMC statement and Chair Powell's press conference; SEC and CFTC hold joint event on crypto regulation harmonization; U.S. GDP and Core PCE data released.

Table of Contents