Bitcoin, Ethereum Rally as ETF Inflows Surge; CAKE, ASTER, FLOKI Lead Altcoin Gains

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The ongoing US government shutdown delays key economic data, increasing market uncertainty and volatility. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and weaker dollar have fueled institutional inflows into crypto. France's debt crisis raises expectations of ECB money printing, driving demand for Bitcoin as a hedge.

Crypto Market

The crypto market is broadly bullish, led by Bitcoin up 1.59% to $122,099 and Ethereum up 0.62% to $4,493.92, driven by strong ETF inflows and institutional demand. Altcoins show mixed trends: PancakeSwap (CAKE) surged 20.7%, ASTER (ASTER) rose 18.1%, and FLOKI (FLOKI) gained 14.4%, all on high volume and ecosystem growth.

Today's Outlook

Today, UXLINK holders will vote on an early token unlock on Ethereum mainnet to compensate September hack victims. APEX will launch a token buyback program, with details pending. These events may impact token prices and market sentiment.

Fear and Greed Index

98.00% Annual Percentile

57 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$4.19T

1.42%

Total Market Trading Volume

$216.23B

9.27%

Altcoin Season Index

45.45%

Quarterly Percentile

67 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.14B

2.60%

Futures

1.10T

1.16%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the monthly jobs report, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. This data blackout increases volatility in crypto markets as traders anticipate further rate cuts and seek alternative assets like Bitcoin.

The Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate cut in September, shifting to an easing bias. This move, combined with a weaker US dollar and falling real yields, has fueled institutional inflows into Bitcoin and other digital assets, supporting the current crypto market rally.

France's escalating debt crisis is raising concerns about potential ECB money printing to stabilize the eurozone. Market participants expect that increased euro liquidity could drive further capital into Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement, boosting DeFi and crypto asset demand.

The Bank of England has softened its stance on stablecoins, suggesting they should be treated as money and integrated into the financial system. This policy shift is seen as positive for stablecoin adoption and could enhance liquidity across DeFi protocols and crypto trading pairs.

Türkiye's annual inflation rate surged to 33.3% in September, intensifying the search for inflation hedges. Persistent inflation in emerging markets is increasing demand for hard assets like Bitcoin, supporting higher trading volumes and on-chain activity.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The UK Financial Conduct Authority will lift its ban on retail purchases of crypto ETNs next week, expanding regulated access but excluding ETFs and derivatives. This move is expected to boost investor participation and market liquidity.

The U.S. SEC's approval process for spot crypto ETFs is halted due to the ongoing government shutdown, delaying launches for products like Litecoin, Solana, and XRP. This regulatory pause creates uncertainty and may temporarily dampen institutional inflows.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is considering a rule to limit 'reputation risk' in bank supervision, potentially easing restrictions on banks' crypto activities. This could improve banking access for crypto firms and support sector growth.

Coinbase has applied for a National Trust Company Charter with the OCC, aiming to expand regulated services beyond custody. This reflects a broader industry trend toward federal oversight and could enhance institutional adoption of crypto.

Vietnam's central bank has legalized cryptocurrencies as virtual assets but banned on-chain fiat-backed stablecoins. This regulatory stance supports crypto adoption while restricting stablecoin use, impacting market structure in Southeast Asia.

PancakeSwap (CAKE): PancakeSwap surged 21% in 24h with $902M volume, driven by strong DEX activity and capital inflows. Its deflationary tokenomics and multichain expansion boosted user engagement and trading rewards.

ASTER (ASTER): ASTER jumped 18% in 24h with $1.39B volume, fueled by its recent token launch and high demand for its perpetual and spot DEX features across BNB, Ethereum, Solana, and Arbitrum.

FLOKI (FLOKI): FLOKI rose 14.5% in 24h with $205M volume, supported by renewed social media momentum and ecosystem utility growth, including DeFi products and NFT marketplace activity.

Smart Money Movements

A new wallet received 26,029 ETH worth $116.8 million from Kraken, highlighting ongoing large-scale Ethereum transfers.

BlackRock acquired 3,930 BTC valued at $466.5 million on October 2, reinforcing institutional accumulation of Bitcoin.

BitMine purchased 234,846 ETH for nearly $1 billion, raising its total Ethereum holdings to 2.65 million tokens valued at $11 billion.

Metaplanet acquired 5,268 BTC for $616 million, increasing its total Bitcoin holdings to 30,823 BTC, now worth $3.33 billion.

Bitwise's Solana Staking ETP (BSOL) surpassed $100 million in AUM, reflecting robust institutional demand for Solana exposure.

Events to Watch

Oct 4 (Sat)

UXLINK holders will vote on Ethereum mainnet on early token unlock to compensate September hack victims; APEX launches token buyback program, details pending.

Oct 6 (Mon)

Forex Expo Dubai 2025 opens at Dubai World Trade Centre, gathering global FX and crypto leaders; World Liberty Financial launches USD1 stablecoin on Aptos with crypto debit card; Play Solana ships first Web3 handheld console PSG1; Old Cronoscan discontinued.

Oct 7 (Tue)

Euro area quarterly balance of payments, international investment position, and money market statistics released; Merge Madrid blockchain event begins; Federal Reserve officials, including Bostic, Miran, and Bowman, speak on economic outlook.

Oct 8 (Wed)

FOMC September meeting minutes released, offering Fed rate cut insights; IAMTN Summit in Dubai discusses stablecoins in cross-border payments; MERGE Madrid hosts stablecoins panel; ONCHAIN AT SCALE VIP dinner gathers global banks on on-chain finance.

Oct 9 (Thu)

MERGE Madrid features panel on digital asset management; ECB releases monetary policy meeting account; Fed Chair Powell and Governor Barr deliver key economic speeches.

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