Bitcoin, Ethereum Rally as ETF Inflows and DeFi Demand Drive Crypto Surge

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The ongoing US government shutdown is delaying key economic data releases, increasing uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and fueling volatility. Regulatory uncertainty persists as the SEC halts new crypto ETF approvals, while stablecoins now exceed $1 trillion in circulation, highlighting their growing systemic role. Leadership changes at the CFTC and blocked IRS rules add further unpredictability to the US crypto regulatory landscape.

Crypto Market

The crypto market is broadly bullish over the past 12 hours, led by Bitcoin up 1.31% to $120,129 and Ethereum up 2.75% to $4,468, both supported by strong ETF inflows and risk-on sentiment. Altcoins outperformed, with Ether.fi (ETHFI) surging 20.27%, PancakeSwap (CAKE) up 16.25%, and Zcash (ZEC) rising 12.8%, driven by DeFi demand, tokenomics, and privacy interest. Solana (SOL) also gained 4.76%, while most major sectors saw positive momentum.

Today's Outlook

Today, markets await the US September Employment Situation and Non-Farm Payrolls data, but release may be delayed due to the government shutdown, potentially heightening volatility and impacting Fed policy expectations.

Fear and Greed Index

98.00% Annual Percentile

51 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$4.13T

1.99%

Total Market Trading Volume

$197.97B

1.82%

Altcoin Season Index

45.45%

Quarterly Percentile

67 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.23B

10.07%

Futures

1.19T

0.85%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The ongoing US government shutdown is delaying key economic data releases, including the September nonfarm payrolls report, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision and increasing volatility in crypto markets.

Bitcoin surged past $118,000 as investors shrugged off US government shutdown concerns, with macroeconomic uncertainty and expectations of further Fed rate cuts fueling risk-on sentiment and supporting crypto asset inflows.

President Trump is considering issuing $1,000–$2,000 stimulus checks funded by tariff revenue, which could boost consumer liquidity and potentially drive increased capital flows into Bitcoin and DeFi markets.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan cautioned against rapid interest rate cuts, citing persistent inflation and a strong labor market, signaling a cautious monetary policy stance that may temper bullish momentum in crypto markets.

Stablecoins have surpassed $1 trillion in circulation, now exceeding 1% of the US M2 money supply, highlighting their growing integration into the financial system and supporting liquidity across DeFi and crypto trading platforms.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The US government shutdown has halted SEC reviews and approvals for new crypto ETFs, delaying the launch of altcoin spot ETFs and increasing regulatory uncertainty for digital asset markets.

The UK has launched a national digital ID scheme, raising privacy concerns among crypto investors about potential impacts on asset mobility and regulatory oversight of digital assets.

Armenia confirmed a ban on cash-for-crypto transactions starting in 2026, aiming to prevent anonymous crypto trades and strengthen anti-money laundering compliance in the digital asset sector.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) faces leadership uncertainty as the White House withdraws its nominee, potentially delaying stable regulatory policy development for crypto markets.

Senator Ted Cruz led a successful effort to block an IRS rule that would have classified certain crypto participants as 'brokers,' a move welcomed by the industry for supporting innovation and privacy.

Ether.fi (ETHFI): Surged 20.27% in 24h, driven by strong DeFi demand for liquid restaking and integration with EigenLayer, with volume at $298M.

PancakeSwap (CAKE): Jumped 16.25% in 24h as trading volume soared to $284M, boosted by deflationary tokenomics and multichain expansion.

Zcash (ZEC): Rose 12.8% in 24h with $1B trading volume, fueled by renewed privacy coin interest and increased shielded transaction activity.

Smart Money Movements

BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF reached $92.54 billion in holdings after a $412.87 million inflow on October 2, leading all ETF inflows.

Fidelity and Bitwise collectively purchased $238.7 million in Bitcoin as BTC traded near $119,000, reinforcing institutional demand.

ETHZilla deployed over 102,000 ETH, valued at more than $440 million, into layer-2 protocols to enhance yield and liquidity.

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings surpassed $77.4 billion, with the company now controlling over 640,000 BTC as of October 2.

A whale transferred 16,031 ETH (about $70.6 million) from Coinbase Institutional to a new wallet, signaling significant on-chain repositioning.

Events to Watch

Oct 3 (Fri)

US September Employment Situation and Non-Farm Payrolls data scheduled for release; possible delay due to ongoing government shutdown.

Oct 5 (Sun)

Aster (ASTER) will unlock 320 million tokens (4% of supply, ~$700M) as part of its final S2 airdrop, raising dilution concerns.

Oct 8 (Wed)

Polygon Ecosystem Token (POL) Network Upgrade will occur at block height 77414656, impacting network operations and token holders.

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