Bitcoin, Ethereum Dip as Fed Minutes Loom; WLFI, KITE Lead Altcoin Gains

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

UK CPI fell to 3.0% in January, raising expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in March. The Federal Reserve's FOMC minutes confirm a strong consensus to hold rates steady, maintaining policy uncertainty. Russia plans to block foreign crypto exchanges by summer 2026, likely reducing global BTC liquidity and increasing market fragmentation.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw mild declines over the past 12 hours, with BTC down 0.70% to $66,645 and ETH down 0.74% to $1,962, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of key Fed events. Altcoins were mixed; World Liberty Financial (WLFI) surged 11.87%, KITE (KITE) rose 8.49%, and Midnight (NIGHT) gained 2.32%, driven by project-specific news. In contrast, Arbitrum (ARB) fell 4.22% and Solana (SOL) dropped 3.25%, as risk appetite remained subdued.

Today's Outlook

Today, the Federal Reserve will release its latest meeting minutes, providing critical insight into future US interest rate policy. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February will also be published, offering a gauge of US manufacturing sector health and potential macro impacts.

Fear and Greed Index

44.00% Annual Percentile

12 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.29T

1.44%

Total Market Trading Volume

$82.38B

4.98%

Altcoin Season Index

58.33%

Quarterly Percentile

33 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.22B

1.34%

Futures

360.13B

4.49%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

UK CPI inflation dropped to 3.0% in January, increasing the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in March. Lower rates could boost DeFi liquidity and NFT trading by reducing funding costs and supporting risk assets.

South Africa's CPI eased to 3.5%, aligning with the new 3% target. This disinflationary trend supports a stable policy outlook, potentially encouraging capital flows into emerging market crypto assets and enhancing BTC and ETH market depth.

The Federal Reserve's latest FOMC minutes confirm a strong consensus to hold rates steady amid solid US economic expansion. This data-dependent stance maintains uncertainty for BTC price direction and may prolong volatility in crypto markets.

President Trump announced the US is on track for its first trade surplus in decades, citing a 78% reduction in the trade deficit due to tariffs. Improved trade balance could strengthen the USD, impacting BTC/USD and global crypto capital flows.

Russia will block foreign crypto exchanges starting summer 2026, aiming to redirect activity to local platforms. This policy may reduce global BTC liquidity and increase fragmentation in crypto trading volumes.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Russia will block foreign crypto exchange websites starting summer 2026, aiming to shift trading to local platforms and tighten regulatory oversight, which may reduce capital outflows but risks driving activity underground.

The probability of the U.S. Clarity Act passing in 2026 surged to 90% on Polymarket before settling at 70%, reflecting strong market anticipation for regulatory clarity that could boost institutional confidence.

Arizona is advancing legislation to include XRP in its state-managed digital asset reserve, signaling growing state-level acceptance of cryptocurrencies and potentially supporting XRP’s market legitimacy.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong criticized banking trade groups for stalling U.S. crypto market structure legislation, highlighting ongoing industry-regulator tensions that delay regulatory clarity and market expansion.

Canary Capital launched SUIS, the first U.S. spot ETF for $SUI on Nasdaq, expanding regulated crypto investment options and potentially attracting more institutional and retail capital to the market.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI): WLFI surged over 12% in 24h, driven by news it will tokenize the Trump International Hotel & Resort in the Maldives. The project announced partnerships with DarGlobal and Securitize, and 24h trading volume exceeded $477M.

Kite (KITE): KITE saw an 8.7% 24h price increase, fueled by its positioning as the first AI payment blockchain for autonomous agent payments. The token's recent listings and $1,000+ 24h volume reflect growing interest in AI-driven payment infrastructure.

Midnight (NIGHT): NIGHT price stabilized near $0.053 after news that Google Cloud joined as the first federated node operator. The partnership aims to boost privacy and scalability, with the announcement supporting recent market attention.

Smart Money Movements

BitMine acquired 35,000 ETH worth $69.37 million in a single day, including 15,000 ETH ($29.57 million) from FalconX, highlighting aggressive accumulation.

Whale 0xF4EE deposited 12,840 ETH valued at $25.35 million to OKX after a month-long hiatus, signaling renewed selling activity in the Ethereum market.

World Liberty Fi transferred 10 million WLFI tokens, valued at $1.18 million, to Binance, indicating a potential sale or strategic repositioning on the exchange.

MicroStrategy purchased an additional $168.4 million in Bitcoin, lowering its average cost basis to $76,027, marking the first reduction since 2023.

A dormant whale spent $2.58 million USDC to acquire 528 PAXG tokens at $4,888 each, re-entering the market after a five-month break.

Events to Watch

Feb 19 (Thu)

The Federal Reserve will release its latest meeting minutes, offering insights into potential interest rate decisions; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February will be published, gauging US manufacturing health.

Feb 20 (Fri)

US December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report and PCE inflation figures will be released, key for Fed policy; US Q4 GDP and GDP per capita data will be published, with expectations of a downward revision.

Feb 18 (Wed)

Cosmos (ATOM) v26.0.0 network upgrade is scheduled for 01:30PM UTC, potentially impacting network operations and token performance.

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