Bitcoin Drops as Traders Await Fed Rate Cut; Pi Network Surges 10%

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points today, potentially boosting global liquidity and risk assets. France is debating allocating up to 2% of national reserves to Bitcoin, signaling rising institutional interest. Australia's higher-than-expected Q3 inflation has delayed RBA rate cut expectations, strengthening the AUD and dampening local crypto inflows.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw a broad pullback in the past 12 hours, with BTC down 3.1% to $112,437 and ETH falling 4.6% to $3,977.92, as traders await the Fed rate decision. Altcoins were mixed: PI Network (PI) surged 10.6%, while PIGGY (PIGGY) dropped 4.0% and Mantis (M) slipped 1.7%. PI's rally was driven by renewed user activity and strong volume.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the FOMC interest rate decision, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan rate announcements, and the Euro Short Term Rate update. These central bank moves are likely to drive volatility across global and crypto markets.

Fear and Greed Index

56.00% Annual Percentile

42 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.81T

2.18%

Total Market Trading Volume

$168.03B

15.57%

Altcoin Season Index

45.45%

Quarterly Percentile

26 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.39B

0.65%

Futures

924.00B

10.78%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points today, a move that could inject liquidity into global markets and support risk assets like Bitcoin and DEFI tokens.

France is debating a proposal to allocate up to 2% of its national reserves to Bitcoin, positioning BTC as a strategic asset and potentially boosting institutional demand and long-term price stability in the crypto market.

Australia's Q3 CPI inflation rose 1.3%, exceeding forecasts and prompting economists to delay expectations for further RBA rate cuts. This hawkish shift has strengthened the Australian dollar and may limit near-term DeFi and crypto inflows from the region.

The Bank of Canada has reduced its policy rate to 2.25%, citing trade concerns. Lower Canadian rates could increase capital flows into higher-yielding crypto assets, supporting DeFi liquidity and altcoin demand.

The European Union has enacted its 19th sanctions package against Russia, targeting energy and crypto-related financial networks. This escalation may increase global demand for decentralized assets as a hedge against geopolitical risk.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Australia's financial regulator ASIC has updated guidance, now classifying stablecoins and wrapped tokens as financial products, requiring providers to obtain licenses. This move increases compliance costs but boosts investor protection and may attract more institutional capital.

ASIC's Info Sheet 225 expands the regulatory scope to cover a broader range of digital assets, including DeFi and custody services, signaling stricter oversight and a shift toward a formal licensing regime for crypto platforms in Australia.

Norway reported a 30% surge in crypto tax declarations, driven by advanced blockchain tracking and international data sharing. This reflects growing regulatory scrutiny and could serve as a model for other European countries seeking to enhance crypto tax compliance.

The SEC is expected to approve the first Hedera (HBAR) and Litecoin ETFs, marking a milestone for regulated digital asset access in the US and potentially increasing institutional participation in the crypto market.

The US SEC has delayed decisions on several XRP ETF applications due to the ongoing government shutdown, creating uncertainty but not outright rejection. Institutional inflows into XRP remain strong, reflecting continued investor optimism.

Pi (PI): PI surged 11.8% in 24h to $0.276, driven by $110M trading volume and renewed user activity after hitting a 19-day low, reflecting strong market recovery momentum.

Piggycell (PIGGY): PIGGY jumped 38.2% in 24h, reaching $2.23 with $129M volume, fueled by real-world usage data from 14,000 charging stations and 4M+ users in South Korea.

MemeCore (M): M rose 3% in 24h to $2.29, supported by $12.2M volume and ongoing adoption of its Layer 1 meme blockchain, highlighting increased on-chain participation and rewards.

Smart Money Movements

A whale accumulated $105 million in Solana (SOL) long positions on Hyperliquid at an average price of $198.3 per SOL, currently holding an unrealized profit of $1.72 million.

Bitwise's Solana ETF ($BSOL) launched with $69.5 million in first-day inflows, coinciding with a $218 million whale transfer of 1,097,555 SOL from Coinbase Institutional to a new address.

Bitmine, led by Tom Lee, increased its Ethereum holdings by 27,316 ETH ($113 million), bringing its total to 3.34 million ETH valued at $13.3 billion.

DBS and Goldman Sachs executed the first interbank OTC crypto options trade, involving cash-settled bitcoin and ether options, as DBS clients surpassed $1 billion in crypto derivatives trades in H1 2025.

A newly created wallet withdrew $5.3 million USDT from Aster DEX and purchased 2.94 million ASTER tokens for $3.2 million, indicating significant whale accumulation in ASTER.

Events to Watch

Oct 29 (Wed)

FOMC to announce interest rate decision; Bank of Canada to release rate decision and hold press conference; Bank of Japan to announce rate decision; Euro Short Term Rate update; US GDPNow forecast release.

Nov 1 (Sat)

Sui Network will unlock 43.96M tokens; EigenLayer to conduct a major token unlock, both events may impact token prices and market liquidity.

Nov 3 (Mon)

Hong Kong 4th Global Financial Leaders Investment Summit 2025 opens, featuring top financial leaders and industry executives.

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