Bitcoin and Ethereum Surge on Fed Rate Cut Hopes; Major Token Unlocks for ARB, SEI

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

US core CPI rose 3.1% YoY in August, fueling expectations of a Fed rate cut next week and supporting risk appetite for crypto. Hong Kong proposed easing capital rules for banks holding licensed stablecoins, aiming to attract institutions. South Korea lifted its VC ban on crypto firms, boosting blockchain sector growth and investor confidence.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad gains over the past 12 hours, led by Bitcoin up 2.42% to $114,268 and Ethereum up 2.86% to $4,426, driven by strong ETF inflows and Fed rate cut expectations. Altcoins showed mixed performance; PUMP.fun surged 10.76%, Pudgy Penguins rose 1.40%, and BONK gained 2.13%, with meme and Solana ecosystem tokens outperforming on high trading volumes and community momentum.

Today's Outlook

Today, Arbitrum unlocks 26.94% of its total supply (2.69B ARB) for teams and advisors, and Sei unlocks 1.18% of supply at 12 PM UTC. These major token unlocks may increase volatility and impact short-term price action for both ARB and SEI.

Fear and Greed Index

94.00% Annual Percentile

47 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$4.01T

1.25%

Total Market Trading Volume

$148.12B

7.27%

Altcoin Season Index

75.00%

Quarterly Percentile

65 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.85B

2.77%

Futures

957.43B

1.83%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The U.S. core CPI rose 3.1% YoY in August, while weak job data increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, supporting bullish sentiment for Bitcoin and digital assets as lower rates typically boost risk appetite.

India's retail inflation climbed to 2.07% in August from 1.61% in July, mainly due to higher food and essentials prices; this mild inflation uptick is seen as supportive for continued liquidity in crypto markets, with the RBI expected to maintain an accommodative stance.

UK GDP showed zero growth in July, signaling economic stagnation; this increases the likelihood of dovish monetary policy, which could enhance capital flows into crypto assets as investors seek higher returns outside traditional markets.

European shares opened higher on hopes of a U.S. Fed rate cut, reflecting global risk-on sentiment; such monetary easing is historically correlated with increased DEFI liquidity and higher trading volumes in major cryptocurrencies.

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $553 million in net inflows on September 11, highlighting strong institutional demand amid macroeconomic uncertainty; this persistent capital inflow provides price support and stability for the broader crypto market.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Coinbase has filed a court motion demanding sanctions against the SEC after nearly a year of former Chair Gary Gensler's crypto-related text messages were deleted, raising concerns over regulatory transparency and potentially weakening the SEC's enforcement credibility.

The U.S. Treasury is finalizing a rule to ban crypto mixers, expanding anti-money laundering controls to privacy tools and certain transaction patterns, which could restrict user privacy and impact DeFi and cross-border crypto activity.

Hong Kong's Monetary Authority has proposed easing capital requirements for banks holding licensed stablecoins and compliant crypto assets, aiming to attract institutional players and strengthen the city's position as a global crypto hub.

South Korea has lifted its 2018 ban on venture capital investments in crypto firms, allowing digital asset startups to access VC funding and government innovation programs, which is expected to boost blockchain sector growth and investor confidence.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins has signaled support for a streamlined regulatory framework for "super-app" crypto platforms, clarifying that most tokens are not securities and advocating for on-chain capital formation, potentially reducing compliance burdens for crypto projects.

PUMP.fun (PUMP): Up 10.76% in 24h, driven by $778.8M trading volume and strong demand for its utility coin on Solana-based launchpad and AMM protocol.

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU): Rose 7.97% in 24h with $681.9M volume, fueled by community growth and recent NFT airdrop events expanding its user base.

BONK (BONK): Gained 2.13% in 24h, supported by $573M trading volume and ongoing meme coin momentum within the Solana ecosystem.

Smart Money Movements

BlackRock reduced its Ethereum holdings by 115,950 ETH ($913M) and increased its Bitcoin position by 3,930 BTC ($2.09B), raising total crypto assets to $101.53B.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US acquired $553 million in BTC in a single day, reflecting a surge in institutional inflows and renewed bullish sentiment.

Ethereum whale 0xdE03 sold 25,755 ETH for $117 million, realizing a total profit of $73 million after strategic accumulation and staking over three years.

A whale identified as thefourthturning.eth purchased 3 million ENA tokens for $2.3 million USDC at $0.766 per token, signaling continued large-scale accumulation.

Key Bitcoin wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC accumulated 65,000 BTC in the past week, moving assets from exchanges to secure wallets and tightening circulating supply.

Events to Watch

Sep 12 (Fri)

Arbitrum (ARB): Unlocks 26.94% of total supply (2.69B ARB) for teams/advisors; Sei (SEI): Unlocks 1.18% of supply at 12 PM UTC.

Sep 15 (Mon)

Starknet (STRK): Unlocks 5.98% of circulating supply worth $17.09 million.

Sep 16 (Tue)

FOMC September meeting begins; NIESR Monthly UK GDP Tracker release; IMF DMD Kenji Okamura visits Hanoi for high-level meetings.

Sep 17 (Wed)

Federal Reserve to announce interest rate decision and release post-meeting statement at 2pm ET; Chair Powell holds press conference at 2:30pm ET.

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