Bitcoin and Ethereum Slide as US Dollar Weakens, Macro Data in Focus

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

China's move to pay interest on digital yuan is spurring CBDC adoption and fintech stock rallies. The US dollar's 8.1% annual decline boosts global risk appetite, supporting crypto prices. US jobless claims remain low, signaling a strong labor market that may delay further Fed rate cuts.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin down 4.43% to $97,474 and Ethereum dropping 9.27% to $3,144.86, pressured by weak spot demand and ETF outflows. Altcoins also fell, with Chiliz (CHZ) down 6.73%, while Mantis (M) bucked the trend, rising 1.14% on ecosystem grants. STORY was flat. No major token unlocks or on-chain events were detected for today.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the US Department of Labor releasing jobless claims and wage data, which could impact Fed policy and crypto volatility. No significant token unlocks or major on-chain events are scheduled, keeping macro data as the main market driver.

Fear and Greed Index

98.00% Annual Percentile

29 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.00T

0.72%

Total Market Trading Volume

$86.72B

1.99%

Altcoin Season Index

58.33%

Quarterly Percentile

19 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

2.50B

0.94%

Futures

706.06B

14.45%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The People's Bank of China announced that starting January 1, 2026, commercial banks will pay interest on digital yuan (e-CNY) wallet balances, triggering a $188M surge in CBDC-related stocks. This policy shift is expected to boost e-CNY adoption and could increase DeFi liquidity and stablecoin competition in Asia.

U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to 199,000, beating expectations and signaling a robust labor market. Strong employment data may delay further Fed rate cuts, potentially maintaining higher yields and limiting risk-on flows into Bitcoin and DeFi assets.

The U.S. dollar is on track for its steepest annual decline in eight years, down 8.1% year-to-date, as markets anticipate a dovish Fed leadership and at least two rate cuts in 2026. A weaker dollar typically supports Bitcoin and altcoin prices by increasing global liquidity and risk appetite.

Crypto ETFs recorded a $423M net inflow on December 30, reversing weeks of outflows as institutional investors reposition portfolios for year-end. Renewed ETF inflows signal improving sentiment and could enhance liquidity for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DeFi markets.

South Korea's inflation cooled to 2.3% in December but remains above the central bank's 2% target, making near-term rate cuts unlikely. Persistent inflation and stable rates may limit capital outflows from Korean markets, supporting local crypto demand and trading activity.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Roundhill Investments filed an updated XRP ETF document with the SEC on December 30, confirming XRP as an approved base asset for regulated ETF strategies. This regulatory milestone boosts institutional confidence in XRP, though the ETF launch is delayed, impacting short-term investor sentiment.

Bitwise has submitted applications to the SEC for 11 new crypto strategy ETFs, targeting assets like Bittensor, Tron, and DEFI tokens. This move signals growing regulatory acceptance and could broaden institutional access to diverse digital assets, supporting long-term market growth.

XRP ETFs have recorded a 29-day streak of inflows, reaching $1.15 billion, reflecting sustained institutional demand and positive sentiment following recent regulatory approvals. This trend supports XRP's price stability and enhances its legitimacy in traditional finance.

The SEC's recent regulatory actions, including the approval of new ETF structures and the retirement of key officials, indicate a shift toward a more pro-growth, rulemaking-focused approach. This regulatory evolution is expected to foster innovation and reduce enforcement-driven uncertainty in the crypto sector.

Ongoing debates over stablecoin regulation, particularly regarding yield restrictions under the GENIUS Act, are intensifying. Regulatory clarity on stablecoin interest could significantly impact DeFi protocols and investor strategies in the U.S. market.

Chiliz (CHZ): CHZ surged over 16% in the past 24 hours, breaking out above $0.0435 with trading volume exceeding $88 million, driven by renewed activity on Binance and strong altcoin momentum.

MemeCore (M): M gained 10.01% in 24 hours, reaching $1.57 as bullish momentum and a break of structure attracted buyers. Binance Futures activity rose 12.4%, and a $300M MemeMax grant boosted ecosystem confidence.

Story (STORY): STORY showed a modest 0.32% 24h increase, but no significant news or events were found to explain the move. Trading activity remains low, and no major catalysts were identified in the last 24 hours.

Smart Money Movements

An investor purchased 3,000 Bitcoin call options on Deribit with a $100,000 strike, paying $2.86 million in premiums, signaling a high-conviction bet on BTC upside.

A whale opened a $500,000 short position on TRUMP with 10x leverage at $4.9361, following the sale of 255 BTC, indicating a strategic shift in large-scale trading.

A whale increased their Ethereum long position by $5.09 million, now holding 8,699.97 ETH valued at $25.99 million, with an average entry price of $2,975.99.

Three major wallets withdrew $15.9 million in Solana DeFi tokens, including PUMP, CLOUD, KMNO, JTO, and DRIFT, highlighting growing institutional interest in Solana's DeFi sector.

Bitmine expanded its Ethereum holdings by acquiring 118,944 ETH worth $352.16 million, bringing its total staked ETH to 461,504, valued at approximately $1.37 billion.

Events to Watch

Dec 31 (Wed)

Peru central bank to announce interest rate decision; U.S. Department of Labor releases jobless claims and hourly wages data, key for Fed policy and crypto volatility; Lighter platform on Arbitrum faces withdrawal disruptions due to sequencer-prover lag.

Jan 1 (Thu)

Peru to release CPI data, expected within 1-3% target range; 50 oracle price feeds to be deactivated across major crypto networks; $NAKA team tokens remain locked until this date.

Jan 2 (Fri)

Canada to release December jobs data alongside U.S. nonfarm payrolls; China to publish CPI and PPI data, impacting global markets.

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