Bitcoin and Ethereum Slide as US CPI Release Looms, Altcoins Mixed

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve's steady rates and risk-off sentiment have triggered sharp declines in Bitcoin and Ether. Upcoming US CPI and PPI releases today are expected to drive volatility as traders await key inflation signals. Global regulatory tightening, including the OECD's CARF and EU MiCA enforcement, is increasing compliance costs and shaping cross-border crypto flows.

Crypto Market

The crypto market remains under pressure, with BTC down 1.46% at $77,207 and ETH falling 6.10% to $2,281.72, both weighed by ETF outflows and weak risk appetite. Most altcoins declined, though FLR rose 2.08% on DeFi growth, ZRO gained 0.44% ahead of its event, while JST slipped 0.35%. Meme and DeFi tokens led losses as thin liquidity and macro uncertainty persist.

Today's Outlook

Today, the US January CPI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and PPI will be released, providing crucial inflation and economic signals. These data points are likely to drive significant volatility across crypto and traditional markets as traders recalibrate risk positions.

Fear and Greed Index

14.00% Annual Percentile

18 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.61T

2.10%

Total Market Trading Volume

$141.38B

23.02%

Altcoin Season Index

54.55%

Quarterly Percentile

31 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.36B

1.77%

Futures

575.05B

1.39%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week, maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance. This decision has contributed to heightened volatility in the crypto market, with Bitcoin and Ether both experiencing sharp declines as risk-off sentiment prevails.

Upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls data and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision this week are expected to significantly impact global risk appetite. Crypto assets may see increased volatility as traders adjust positions in response to labor market and monetary policy signals.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to 20, signaling Extreme Fear amid sustained selling pressure. This risk-off environment, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, has led to a nearly 7% drop in Bitcoin and over 9% in Ether, affecting DeFi liquidity and NFT trading volumes.

Standard Chartered projects that U.S. banks could lose $500 billion in deposits to stablecoins by 2028, as yield-bearing digital assets attract capital. This shift may reduce traditional banking liquidity and increase stablecoin flows within DeFi protocols.

The OECD has advanced its Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), with over 70 countries set to begin collecting crypto transaction data in 2026. This global data initiative is expected to increase transparency and could influence cross-border crypto flows and market sentiment.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The OECD has advanced its Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), requiring global crypto platforms to report transaction data from 2026, increasing compliance risks and likely impacting offshore asset flows.

India's 2026 budget introduces penalties for inaccurate or missing crypto income tax reporting, signaling stricter enforcement and potentially increasing compliance costs for local investors and exchanges.

The White House is mediating a dispute between banks and crypto firms over stablecoin rewards, aiming to resolve policy divisions that have stalled the Senate's Clarity Act and could reshape U.S. stablecoin regulation.

U.S. banks may lose up to $500 billion in deposits to stablecoins by 2028, as regulatory uncertainty and higher stablecoin yields drive capital outflows, pressuring traditional banking models and market liquidity.

Ghana has launched the NAVALI initiative under the new VASP Act, formalizing crypto trading and focusing on public education to reduce scams, which may boost user protection and foster regulated market growth.

JUST (JST): JST rose 3.75% in 24h with $41.18M trading volume, driven by recent integration of River's satUSD stablecoin for liquidity mining and lending on DeFi JUST within the TRON ecosystem.

Flare (FLR): FLR gained 3.44% in 24h with $10.07M volume, supported by over 91M XRP bridged and $10.54M TVL in its new XRP Yield Vault, boosting DeFi activity on Flare.

LayerZero (ZRO): ZRO increased 3.11% in 24h with $130.6M volume, as anticipation builds for the "New Era" event scheduled for February 10, 2026, and strong network demand sustains trading interest.

Smart Money Movements

Bitmine recorded a $6.9 billion unrealized loss on its 4.243 million ETH holdings as Ethereum fell to $2,222, the lowest since June 2025.

A dormant Ethereum whale sold 8,691 ETH worth $20.1 million from two wallets during the recent market crash, capitalizing on volatility.

The entity '7 Siblings' acquired 11,333 ETH for $26.13 million, raising its total Ethereum investment to $57.21 million at an average price of $2,370.

Ripple unlocked 400 million XRP from escrow as part of its monthly supply strategy, with the released value based on current market rates.

A whale deposited 1.127 million USDC to open a 10x leveraged short position on BNB via Hyperliquid, marking a return to active trading.

Events to Watch

Feb 2 (Mon)

US January CPI data, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and PPI will be released, providing key inflation and economic signals.

Feb 5 (Thu)

XDC Network unlocks 841.18M XDC ($29M, 5% supply); BoJ, ECB, and Bank of England announce policy decisions; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, initial jobless claims released.

Feb 6 (Fri)

US January Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings released; Hyperliquid unlocks 9.92M HYPE ($297M, 2.79% supply); Berachain unlocks 63.75M BERA ($29.5M, 41.7% supply).

Feb 4 (Wed)

Eurozone CPI data released, impacting rate expectations; US ADP private-sector employment change and Services PMI published; Federal Reserve meeting concludes.

Table of Contents