Bitcoin and Ethereum Slide as Fed Caution, Options Expiry Drive Volatility

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, but signaled caution, dampening risk appetite and triggering liquidations in crypto. US-China trade negotiations have eased some tensions, yet persistent risk aversion and liquidity concerns weigh on markets. Ongoing US government shutdown and data gaps have heightened volatility, leaving traders cautious amid unclear macro signals.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw broad declines over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 0.70% to $109,730 and Ethereum falling 1.69% to $3,851.46, pressured by weak risk sentiment and ETF outflows. Altcoins were mixed; Aerodrome Finance (AERO) surged 7.7% on Base DeFi activity, PAX Gold (PAXG) rose 1.86% as gold-backed tokens gained favor, while Mantis (M) dropped 8.89% amid meme sector weakness.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the release of the US PCE Price Index YoY for September, the Personal Income & Outlays report, the Employment Cost Index, and the expiration of nearly $17B in BTC/ETH options on Deribit, all of which may drive significant market volatility.

Fear and Greed Index

58.00% Annual Percentile

34 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$3.67T

1.84%

Total Market Trading Volume

$186.16B

10.42%

Altcoin Season Index

45.45%

Quarterly Percentile

28 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.46B

1.75%

Futures

846.02B

4.35%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The US Senate voted to end President Trump's global tariff policy, potentially reducing trade barriers and impacting global risk sentiment. This move could increase capital flows into crypto assets as trade uncertainty eases.

The Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Despite this, the FOMC signaled a cautious outlook, dampening risk appetite and triggering sharp liquidations in Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

The conclusion of the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1 is expected to inject liquidity into financial markets. However, the immediate effect has been muted, with crypto prices declining as investors await clearer policy direction.

A divided FOMC and ongoing US government shutdown have created a data gap, increasing market uncertainty. This has led to heightened volatility in both traditional and crypto markets, with traders remaining cautious amid unclear macroeconomic signals.

Progress in US-China trade negotiations, including tariff reductions and renewed agricultural purchases, has eased some global economic tensions. However, the crypto market remains under pressure, reflecting persistent risk aversion and liquidity concerns.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

US senators are advancing a bipartisan crypto market structure bill to provide clear regulatory guidelines for digital assets, aiming to reduce industry uncertainty and support market stability.

The EU is considering a conditional launch of the digital euro, proposing it only if the private sector fails to deliver a unified payment solution, which could impact stablecoin and CBDC adoption in Europe.

Australia's AUSTRAC fined Cryptolink $37,000 for anti-money laundering violations at crypto ATMs, signaling stricter enforcement and raising compliance costs for crypto service providers.

Hong Kong's SFC has issued new guidelines for digital asset treasury management, increasing regulatory oversight and encouraging firms to prioritize compliance in crypto holdings.

The US IRS has implemented new crypto broker tax reporting rules effective January 2025, requiring exchanges to provide detailed transaction data, which may increase transparency and compliance burdens for market participants.

Aerodrome Finance (AERO): Up 7.7% in 24h, with $197M trading volume surge and nearly $1B market cap, driven by its role as Base network's central liquidity hub and strong DeFi incentives.

PAX Gold (PAXG): Rose 1.9% in 24h to $4,031, with $373M volume, as gold-backed tokens gain momentum amid global policy shifts and increased demand for tokenized real-world assets.

MemeCore (M): Gained 7.4% in 24h, reaching $2.52 with $16M volume, fueled by its unique Layer 1 blockchain for meme coins and strong community-driven viral economy incentives.

Smart Money Movements

Coinbase increased its Bitcoin holdings by $299 million in Q3 2025, bringing its total to 14,548 BTC valued at $1.6 billion as of September 30.

Michael Saylor's Strategy reported a $2.8 billion profit from Bitcoin holdings in Q3, reflecting the company's strategic focus on cryptocurrency assets.

A crypto whale deposited $5.18 million USDC into HyperLiquid and opened a 25x leveraged long position on Ethereum, highlighting high-stakes trading activity.

SharpLink Gaming invested $200 million in ETH on Linea, utilizing staking and EigenCloud AVS, with Anchorage Digital Bank providing compliance and custody.

BlackRock sold 749 Bitcoin worth $88 million on October 29, reducing its total holdings to 805,540 BTC amid a broader market downturn.

Events to Watch

Oct 31 (Fri)

US PCE Price Index YoY for September and Personal Income & Outlays report released; Employment Cost Index and nearly $17B in BTC/ETH options expire on Deribit.

Nov 2 (Sun)

Tea Protocol will hold its Token Generation Event, raising $319.9M in the Base Ecosystem.

Nov 3 (Mon)

Tria token sale on Legion platform, raising $112M; Kite AI airdrop event with 318M tokens in AI Infrastructure L1.

Nov 5 (Wed)

Intuition Token Generation Event, raising $37.03M in Data Service Identity sector.

Nov 6 (Thu)

Folks Finance FOLKS Token Generation Event, raising $36.2M in Algorand Ecosystem DeFi Lending/Borrowing.

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