Bitcoin and Ethereum Rise as ETF Inflows Continue; FOMC Decision Looms

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at the April 29 FOMC, supporting risk assets. Elevated oil prices are fueling inflation, raising the likelihood of prolonged higher rates and limiting crypto liquidity. South Africa's draft regulation proposes forced crypto asset surrender, sparking industry backlash and capital flight concerns.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw moderate gains over the past 12 hours, with BTC up 1.93% to $79,044 and ETH rising 3.01% to $2,385.85, driven by continued ETF inflows and stable macro policy. Altcoins showed mixed performance; Aerodrome Finance (AERO) led with a 9.54% gain, SKY (SKY) rose 3.8%, while Humanity Protocol (H) dipped 1.24%. XRP, BNB, and SOL each gained over 1%, supported by strong capital rotation and institutional flows.

Today's Outlook

Today, the US Federal Reserve will announce its Federal Funds Rate decision and FOMC Statement, a key event for global risk assets. The Bank of England will release its Official Bank Rate and Monetary Policy Report, potentially impacting GBP and crypto sentiment. The Bank of Canada will announce its Overnight Rate and Policy Report, influencing North American market liquidity.

Fear and Greed Index

0.00% Annual Percentile

46 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.64T

1.91%

Total Market Trading Volume

$108.48B

11.36%

Altcoin Season Index

75.00%

Quarterly Percentile

40 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.62B

1.73%

Futures

490.83B

2.22%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the April 29 FOMC meeting, with a 99% probability priced in by traders. This policy stability supports Bitcoin's resilience near $78,000, as risk assets benefit from steady US monetary conditions.

Goldman Sachs has raised its Q4 oil price forecast to $90/bbl for Brent due to a sharp decline in Middle Eastern supply. Elevated energy prices are fueling inflation, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will maintain higher rates for longer, which could limit crypto market liquidity and cap BTC upside.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows, adding $2.12B since April 14. This ETF-driven demand has helped Bitcoin test the $80,000 level, highlighting the impact of institutional capital flows amid stable macro policy signals.

The US Treasury now accepts Venmo and PayPal for voluntary debt donations, but the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill remains stalled in Congress. The lack of fiscal innovation means no immediate impact on sovereign crypto holdings, keeping the macro backdrop neutral for digital assets.

Oil prices surged over 2% as US-Iran peace talks stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. The resulting energy market volatility is increasing inflationary pressures, which may delay any Fed rate cuts and sustain a risk-off environment for crypto assets.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

South Africa's draft regulation proposes forced surrender of crypto assets, phone searches, and up to five years in prison, triggering industry backlash and raising fears of capital flight.

The US CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate, with stablecoin yield rules as the main obstacle; further delays risk indefinite regulatory uncertainty for the crypto industry.

Hong Kong's SFC has enabled secondary trading of tokenized funds under the ETF framework, allowing 24/7 retail access and regulated stablecoin settlement, signaling regulatory innovation in Asia.

The US OCC's GENIUS Act stablecoin rule comment period closes May 1, with new federal licensing requirements set to reshape stablecoin issuance and compliance for US banks.

Humanity Protocol (H): Price rose 7.8% in 24h to $0.148, with $25.5M trading volume and $403M market cap. The surge is driven by strong user growth and increased adoption of its decentralized identity solution.

Aerodrome Finance (AERO): Gained 9.5% in 24h to $0.466, with $67.9M volume and $432M market cap. The rally is fueled by rising TVL and liquidity incentives as Base's central DeFi hub.

SKY (SKY): Up 3.8% in 24h to $0.088, market cap $2.05B, $28.9M volume. The price increase follows the recent rebrand from Maker (MKR) and ongoing governance token migration, boosting ecosystem engagement.

Smart Money Movements

BlackRock acquired approximately $900 million in Bitcoin for its spot ETF, with the average holding cost for clients reaching $87,000 per BTC.

Strategy purchased 140,000 BTC in the first four months of 2026, bringing its total holdings close to 1 million BTC and maintaining its position as the largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

Bitmine acquired 100,000 ETH, valued at about $233.7 million, from BitGo wallets, signaling strong institutional confidence in Ethereum.

A whale identified as pension-USDT.eth faced a $15.25 million loss after shorting $110 million in BTC and ETH with 3x leverage, as prices rebounded in April.

On-chain data showed whales accumulated Toncoin (TON), Arbitrum (ARB), SUI (SUI), Near Protocol (NEAR), Injective (INJ), and Aptos (APT), reflecting institutional focus on ecosystem growth and scalability.

Events to Watch

Apr 27 (Mon)

US Federal Reserve to announce Federal Funds Rate decision and FOMC Statement; Bank of England to release Official Bank Rate and Monetary Policy Report; Bank of Canada to announce Overnight Rate and Policy Report.

Apr 28 (Tue)

FOMC meeting and press conference to decide US interest rates; Eurozone, French, and Spanish Q1 GDP data releases; Bank of Japan policy decision; ECB and BoE policy announcements; US Consumer Confidence and jobless claims data.

Apr 29 (Wed)

US Q1 GDP and Employment Cost Index release; US March personal income and spending report including core PCE; Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy decisions; Australian CPI data release.

Apr 30 (Thu)

US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index release; ECB and BoE interest rate decisions; Eurozone preliminary April CPI and Q1 GDP data; Major ETHFI token unlock (95.7% supply dilution); Gunz (GUN) token unlock ($5.5M, 17% supply).

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