Bitcoin and Ethereum Rally as Major Token Unlocks Loom

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25bps next week amid rising jobless claims and 2.9% inflation, fueling crypto bullishness. Hong Kong plans to ease bank capital rules for compliant crypto assets, aiming to attract institutions. Japan will lower crypto tax rates to 20% by 2026, supporting domestic market growth.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw moderate gains over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin up 2.4% to $114,268 and Ethereum rising 2.9% to $4,426, driven by ETF inflows and institutional demand. Altcoins showed mixed performance; Immutable (IMX) led with a 3.9% gain, Solana (SOL) rose 1.7%, while MYX was flat. Strong NFT and DeFi activity supported IMX and SOL.

Today's Outlook

Today, 55.6 million SEI and 127 million STRK tokens unlock, potentially increasing volatility and impacting liquidity for these assets. Monitor market reactions as large unlocks can trigger price swings and affect sector sentiment.

Fear and Greed Index

94.00% Annual Percentile

50 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$4.08T

1.15%

Total Market Trading Volume

$169.75B

8.71%

Altcoin Season Index

75.00%

Quarterly Percentile

65 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

4.67B

17.23%

Futures

903.48B

5.21%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, as recent CPI data showed inflation at 2.9% and jobless claims surged. This anticipated monetary easing is fueling bullish sentiment in crypto, supporting Bitcoin and altcoin price rallies.

US core CPI inflation rose 0.3% in August, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut. Lower rates typically boost risk assets, and the crypto market has seen strong ETF inflows and renewed institutional demand as a result.

India's August CPI inflation increased to 2.07%, up from 1.61% in July, but remains within the central bank's target. The benign inflation outlook supports stable liquidity conditions, which is positive for DeFi and crypto adoption in the region.

The European Central Bank held interest rates steady at 2.15% for the second consecutive meeting, citing inflation near its 2% target. This policy stability has contributed to positive risk sentiment and increased capital flows into crypto ETFs.

UK GDP showed zero growth in July, signaling economic stagnation. Weak growth prospects in major economies often drive investors toward alternative assets like Bitcoin, increasing crypto market liquidity and trading volumes.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

Tether announced the launch of USA₮, a US-regulated stablecoin compliant with the new GENIUS Act, aiming to expand its presence in the US market and boost institutional confidence in stablecoins.

The US Treasury is finalizing a rule to ban crypto mixers and privacy-enhancing tools, signaling stricter anti-money laundering enforcement and potentially reducing privacy options for US crypto users.

Coinbase has filed a court motion demanding sanctions against the SEC after the agency deleted a year of former Chair Gary Gensler’s text messages, raising concerns about regulatory transparency and enforcement credibility.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority released draft rules to ease capital requirements for banks holding licensed stablecoins and compliant crypto assets, aiming to attract more institutional participation and strengthen its position as a global crypto hub.

Japan announced plans to reduce its crypto tax rate to 20% by fiscal year 2026, aligning digital asset taxation with other financial investments and potentially increasing domestic crypto market activity.

MYX Finance (MYX): Surged 13.6% in 24h to $14.20 with $384M volume; driven by strong demand for its cross-chain derivatives protocol and recent all-time high at $19.01.

MemeCore (M): Rose 14% in 24h to $2.18 with $63.9M volume; hit new all-time high of $2.48, fueled by viral meme coin ecosystem growth and high on-chain activity.

Immutable (IMX): Jumped 13.2% in 24h to $0.68 with $78.9M volume; boosted by NFT platform adoption and increased trading on its zero-gas layer-2 scaling solution.

Smart Money Movements

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US acquired $553 million in BTC yesterday, reflecting a surge in institutional inflows and renewed bullish sentiment.

BlackRock reallocated its crypto portfolio, reducing 115,950 ETH ($913M) and increasing Bitcoin holdings by 3,930 BTC, raising total BTC to 751,400 ($2.09B).

A new wallet opened a $50.83 million short position on Ethereum with 20x leverage on HyperLiquid, highlighting ongoing speculative activity.

A whale identified as 'thefourthturning.eth' purchased 3 million ENA tokens for 2.3 million USDC at $0.766 per ENA, signaling significant on-chain accumulation.

Key Bitcoin wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC accumulated 65,000 BTC in the past week, indicating strong long-term confidence among large holders.

Events to Watch

Sep 13 (Sat)

SEI unlocks 55.6 million tokens; STRK unlocks 127 million tokens, both with significant market impact.

Sep 15 (Mon)

China releases key August economic data including retail sales and industrial production; Sei (SEI) unlocks 55.56 million tokens.

Sep 16 (Tue)

FOMC September meeting begins, with markets expecting a 25bps rate cut; Canada releases August CPI data.

Sep 17 (Wed)

Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision, widely expected to cut rates by 25bps; UK releases August CPI data.

Sep 18 (Thu)

Bank of England announces rate decision, expected to hold rates steady; Japan releases August CPI data.

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