Bitcoin and Ethereum Hit New Highs as ETF Inflows and Token Unlocks Drive Market

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed key economic data, heightening uncertainty ahead of the October FOMC meeting. Russia's ruble-backed A7A5 stablecoin has processed over $6 billion in cross-border transactions, highlighting digital assets' role in bypassing sanctions. India's GDP surpassing $4 trillion and policy support for stablecoin remittances may boost DeFi and crypto trading volumes in INR corridors.

Crypto Market

The crypto market remains bullish, with Bitcoin up 1.26% at $124,759 and Ethereum rising 2.25% to $4,650.26, both near all-time highs amid record ETF inflows and macro uncertainty. Altcoins show strong gains, led by Mantle (+14.0%), PancakeSwap (+13.9%), and ASTER (+12.5%), driven by ecosystem growth, product launches, and major exchange listings. Layer-1 and DeFi sectors outperform, supported by whale accumulation and increased trading volumes.

Today's Outlook

Today's major events include over $555M in token unlocks for projects like LINEA and TRUMP, which may impact market liquidity and volatility. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25bps at the upcoming FOMC meeting, a key macro catalyst for risk assets. Grayscale's Ethereum and Solana ETPs have activated staking, marking a milestone for US-listed spot crypto products and potentially boosting institutional inflows.

Fear and Greed Index

92.00% Annual Percentile

58 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$4.27T

1.35%

Total Market Trading Volume

$163.98B

9.24%

Altcoin Season Index

50.00%

Quarterly Percentile

65 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.37B

5.29%

Futures

1.02T

10.54%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed key economic data, increasing uncertainty ahead of the October FOMC meeting. This data blackout has driven Bitcoin to new all-time highs as investors seek alternatives amid unclear Fed policy direction.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at the end of October, but the lack of labor market data due to the shutdown makes the decision highly unpredictable, fueling volatility in both crypto and equity markets.

Russia's ruble-backed A7A5 stablecoin has processed over $6 billion in cross-border transactions since August, despite US sanctions. This move highlights the use of digital assets to bypass traditional financial restrictions, potentially increasing on-chain liquidity and stablecoin flows.

India's GDP surpassed $4 trillion, with policymakers signaling support for stablecoin-based remittance rails. This could lower remittance costs and drive institutional demand for stablecoins, boosting DeFi and crypto trading volumes in INR corridors.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that shifts in eurozone inflation risk profiles may influence near-term monetary policy. Any ECB rate adjustments could impact EUR-denominated crypto pairs and cross-border DeFi flows.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The GENIUS Act, enacted in July 2025, has triggered a surge in stablecoin supply and DeFi activity, with stablecoin market cap surpassing $300 billion and banks facing deposit outflows as users seek higher yields.

Coinbase has applied for a federal trust charter to expand its regulated services, aiming to enhance compliance and offer broader payment solutions, which may boost institutional confidence in the crypto sector.

The Teucrium XRP ETF launched automatically during the ongoing US SEC shutdown, highlighting regulatory loopholes and increasing investor access to crypto ETFs despite delayed formal approvals.

Hong Kong's SFC extended CEO Julia Leung's term by three years to ensure regulatory continuity as the city tightens stablecoin rules and advances its ambition to be a global digital asset hub.

Standard Chartered warns that stablecoin adoption could lead to a $1 trillion outflow from emerging market banks, accelerating the shift of deposits to digital assets and challenging traditional banking models.

Mantle (MNT): Mantle surged 14% in 24h to $2.38, driven by a $414M trading volume spike and ecosystem growth, including a recent all-time high and strong DAO treasury backing.

PancakeSwap (CAKE): PancakeSwap jumped 13.8% to $3.80 in 24h, with $614M volume, fueled by new product launches like CAKE.PAD for early token access and a deflationary tokenomics upgrade.

ASTER (ASTER): ASTER rose 12.7% to $2.08 in 24h, with $1.88B trading volume, following Binance listing and DeFiLlama delisting perpetual volume data, increasing market attention and volatility.

Smart Money Movements

Digital asset funds recorded $5.95 billion in inflows last week, marking the largest single-week inflow on record and highlighting surging institutional demand.

BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.8 billion in inflows last week, bringing its assets under management to $96.2 billion and cementing its lead among Bitcoin ETFs.

Strategy (MicroStrategy) paused Bitcoin purchases after reaching 640,031 BTC, valued at over $79.5 billion, with a $9 billion unrealized profit as of Q3 2025.

Sequans increased its Bitcoin holdings by purchasing 29 BTC at an average price of $115,517, raising its total to 3,234 BTC and reinforcing its treasury reserve strategy.

Institutional investors injected $302 million into Bitcoin, driving the price above $125,000, while exchange whale ratios dropped to 0.43, indicating strong long-term holding.

Events to Watch

Oct 6 (Mon)

Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates by 25bps at FOMC meeting; Over $555M in major token unlocks including ATH, APT, LINEA, BABY, BB, HOME, IO, MOVE, SOL, TRUMP, WLD, DOGE, IP, AVAX, ASTER, TIA, SUI.

Oct 7 (Tue)

SunFlash to host Twitter Space roundtable on altcoin ETF trends, featuring industry experts discussing regulatory and institutional developments.

Oct 8 (Wed)

BlackRock to launch iShares Bitcoin ETP in the UK after FCA approval, opening retail access to crypto ETNs; UK FCA to decide on retail access to crypto ETNs.

Oct 12 (Sun)

Aethir (ATH) will unlock 1.26 billion tokens worth $68.27M, representing 12.73% of circulating supply, potentially impacting market liquidity.

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