Bitcoin and Ethereum Gain as US CPI Release Looms; Siren Surges 23%

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

US CPI is expected to show the largest monthly inflation jump in four years, driven by surging oil prices and persistent Middle East tensions. The Federal Reserve is likely to delay rate cuts, tightening financial conditions for risk assets. Regulatory uncertainty persists as the US pushes for the CLARITY Act and new stablecoin AML rules, impacting global crypto innovation.

Crypto Market

The crypto market showed mixed performance over the past 12 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.87% to $71,840, while Ethereum (ETH) gained 0.77% to $2,183.79, both supported by moderate risk appetite. Among altcoins, SIREN (SIREN) surged 23.46%, Canton Network (CC) climbed 6.58%, and JUST (JST) advanced 5.98%, mainly on speculative flows rather than fundamental news. Most major altcoins saw mild gains, with Solana (SOL) up 1.48% and FET up 1.82%.

Today's Outlook

Today, the US March CPI report will be released at 8:30 a.m. EST, with markets bracing for a sharp inflation uptick that could drive volatility across crypto assets. Additionally, nearly 38 billion RAIN tokens (3.37% of supply) will unlock, potentially impacting token-specific market dynamics.

Fear and Greed Index

6.00% Annual Percentile

43 Neutral

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.40T

1.60%

Total Market Trading Volume

$83.95B

31.48%

Altcoin Season Index

30.77%

Quarterly Percentile

37 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

2.78B

2.04%

Futures

438.54B

0.12%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

The upcoming US CPI release is expected to show the largest monthly inflation jump in nearly four years due to the "Iran premium" in oil prices, reinforcing higher-for-longer interest rate expectations and dampening crypto market risk appetite.

North Sea Brent crude prices have surged to record highs amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions, intensifying global inflation risks and increasing volatility in BTC and DeFi liquidity as energy costs ripple through the crypto ecosystem.

Recent attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have sharply reduced oil production and exports, further tightening global supply and fueling inflationary pressures that could suppress crypto market liquidity and risk-on sentiment.

US bond traders are increasing long positions in options betting on higher Treasury yields, reflecting market consensus that persistent inflation will delay any Fed rate cuts, which historically limits upside for BTC and altcoins.

Robust US non-farm payroll data has shifted market focus back to energy-driven inflation, with only a 30% probability of a single Fed rate cut in 2026, signaling tighter financial conditions and potential headwinds for crypto asset prices.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged Congress to swiftly pass the CLARITY Act, warning that ongoing regulatory uncertainty is driving crypto innovation overseas and threatening US market leadership.

The US Treasury and FinCEN have proposed new AML and sanctions compliance rules for stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act, requiring robust anti-money laundering programs and transaction monitoring, which may increase compliance costs for issuers.

The SEC has initiated formal proceedings to review a proposal for options trading on the Grayscale Crypto 5 ETF, signaling continued regulatory caution and a focus on investor protection in crypto-linked derivatives.

Kenya has released draft regulations mandating stablecoin issuers to hold at least 30% of reserves in local banks and banning yield payments, aiming to tighten control but potentially limiting market diversity and innovation.

ClearBank Europe has secured MiCAR approval from Dutch regulators to operate as a Crypto Asset Service Provider, enabling regulated access to EURC and USDC stablecoins and expanding compliant digital asset services in the EU.

SIREN (SIREN): SIREN surged 23.46% in the past 24 hours, leading Top Gainers. However, no specific news or event was identified as the direct driver for this price action; the move appears to be driven by speculative trading and low liquidity.

JUST (JST): JUST rose 5.98% in the last 24 hours, ranking among the top gainers. The project maintains strong DeFi activity on TRON, but no major protocol upgrade or listing was reported as a catalyst for this session's price increase.

Canton Network (CC): Canton Network gained 6.58% over the past 24 hours, entering the Top 3 Gainers. The price action is not linked to any recent partnership, listing, or technical update, suggesting the move is primarily market-driven.

Smart Money Movements

Grayscale staked 83,200 ETH worth $184 million via its Ethereum Mini Trust, highlighting continued institutional participation in Ethereum staking.

A new wallet invested $2 million in HyperLiquid, acquiring 49,731 HYPE tokens at $40.22 each, signaling notable capital inflow into the ecosystem.

A whale received a transfer of 102,765,748 USDC (about $102.74 million) from Aave, reflecting ongoing large-scale stablecoin movements in DeFi.

Strategy secured $570 million through STRC to acquire approximately 8,000 BTC, permanently removing these Bitcoins from circulating supply.

BlackRock transferred 19,935 ETH, valued at $43.65 million, to Coinbase Prime via its Ethereum ETF, as part of its ongoing crypto asset strategy.

Events to Watch

Apr 10 (Fri)

US March CPI report to be released at 8:30 a.m. EST; Nearly 38 billion RAIN tokens (3.37% of supply) to unlock, potentially impacting market volatility.

Apr 11 (Sat)

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March 2026 expected; China to release March 2026 trade balance data, both closely watched by global markets.

Apr 14 (Tue)

China's Q1 2026 GDP data will be released, providing key insights into the country's economic growth trajectory.

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