Bitcoin and Ethereum Dip as Macro Risks Rise; CEX Tokens Outperform

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

Escalating Middle East conflict has driven Brent crude to $90, fueling stagflation fears and raising the likelihood of a Fed rate cut by mid-year. US unemployment rose to 4.4% with 92,000 jobs lost, intensifying expectations for monetary easing. Japan's anticipated GDP revision, driven by strong wage growth, signals a shift away from deflation and may impact global capital flows.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw mild declines as Bitcoin fell 1.67% to $67,798 and Ethereum dropped 1.73% to $1,976, pressured by weak risk sentiment and ETF outflows. Altcoins were mixed, but CEX tokens outperformed: OKB rose 4.32%, Hyperliquid (HYPE) gained 3.27%, and JUST (JST) climbed 3.11%, driven by strong trading volumes and DeFi activity on TRON.

Today's Outlook

No major token unlocks or significant crypto events are scheduled for today, according to leading unlock calendars. Market focus remains on macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments, with volatility likely tied to global risk sentiment shifts.

Fear and Greed Index

96.00% Annual Percentile

20 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.32T

1.68%

Total Market Trading Volume

$76.53B

23.53%

Altcoin Season Index

83.33%

Quarterly Percentile

37 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.07B

4.88%

Futures

362.12B

10.32%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

Escalating Middle East conflict has driven Brent crude to $90/barrel, raising stagflation fears and increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut by June or July, which could boost Bitcoin and DEFI liquidity as risk appetite shifts.

US labor market data showed a loss of 92,000 jobs and unemployment rising to 4.4%, intensifying speculation of imminent Federal Reserve monetary easing, a move that typically supports crypto asset prices by increasing global liquidity.

Japan is expected to revise GDP upward due to stronger-than-expected wage growth, signaling a structural shift away from deflation; this could strengthen the yen and impact global capital flows, influencing crypto market volatility.

China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 16 months, highlighting ongoing reserve diversification and a strategic move away from USD reliance, which may drive increased demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin.

Iran's expanded use of cryptocurrency for sanctions evasion exceeded $3 billion in 2025, with over half of flows tied to IRGC-linked networks, underscoring crypto's growing role in cross-border finance and its impact on global digital asset flows.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The Florida Senate unanimously passed Bill 314, establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for payment stablecoins, requiring issuers to obtain state licenses and comply with anti-money laundering rules, which may boost investor confidence in the region.

Pakistan's parliament passed the Virtual Assets Act 2026, creating the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority to license and supervise crypto service providers, signaling a shift toward clearer regulation and potentially attracting more institutional participation.

Ripple secured an EMI license and FCA cryptoasset registration in the UK, strengthening its regulated presence and enabling expanded institutional-grade crypto services, which could enhance market trust and adoption in the UK and EU.

Russia is advancing legislation to allow banks and brokers to operate CRYPTO exchanges under a fast-track licensing system, aiming to integrate digital assets into the traditional financial sector and potentially increasing regulated CRYPTO trading activity.

The US regulatory landscape remains contentious as traditional banks intensify their influence over crypto legislation, particularly around stablecoins, creating uncertainty and ongoing volatility in the digital asset market.

OKB (OKB): OKB rose 4.3% in 24h to $99.45, driven by increased trading volume ($112M) and strong demand for CEX tokens amid market volatility.

Hyperliquid (HYPE): HYPE gained 3.2% in 24h, reaching $30.88, supported by $212M trading volume and user growth on its zero-gas-fee perpetual DEX platform.

JUST (JST): JST climbed 3.1% in 24h to $0.0492, with $24M volume, as DeFi activity on TRON and stablecoin lending demand boosted ecosystem engagement.

Smart Money Movements

A whale known as 'pension-usdt.eth' reduced its Bitcoin short position to 705 BTC with 3x leverage at an average entry price of $68,182.70, maintaining an unrealized profit of $100,000.

Binance's 40th Proof of Reserves showed user Bitcoin holdings decreased by 8,004 BTC (1.25%) to 631,000 BTC, Ethereum holdings dropped by 307,203 ETH (7.35%) to 3.87 million ETH, and USDT holdings fell by 360 million (0.98%) to 36.4 billion USDT as of March 1.

A dormant Ethereum whale staked 8,208 ETH, valued at $16.85 million, on Kiln Finance after a year of inactivity, locking the assets into Ethereum's beacon chain.

Spark initiated a buyback program, repurchasing 1.84 million SPK tokens worth $36,000, with a $35 million reserve allocated for monthly buybacks over the next year.

A whale address acquired 6,228 ETH for 12.5 million USDC at an average price of $2,007, marking a significant re-entry into the Ethereum market after previous large trades.

Events to Watch

Mar 11 (Wed)

US February CPI data will be released at 8:30 am ET, providing key inflation insights for global markets.

Mar 13 (Fri)

US January PCE Price Index will be published at 8:30 am ET, a critical indicator for Federal Reserve policy outlook.

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