Bitcoin and Ethereum Dip as Fed Minutes, Cosmos Upgrade Awaited

I. Crypto Market Overview

Key Takeaways

Macro Environment

UK CPI inflation fell to 3.0% in January, raising expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in March. The Federal Reserve will release January meeting minutes today, with markets watching for dovish signals. The CFTC's support for DeFi derivatives and the ECB's digital euro plans highlight ongoing regulatory evolution.

Crypto Market

The crypto market saw mild declines over the past 12 hours, with Bitcoin down 1.3% to $67,109 and Ethereum down 1.0% to $1,968. Altcoins showed mixed performance; World Liberty Financial (WLFI) surged 25.7%, KITE (KITE) rose 12.2%, and Midnight (NIGHT) gained 5.0%, all driven by speculative trading and social media activity. No major protocol events or token unlocks impacted price action.

Today's Outlook

Key events today include the Federal Reserve's January FOMC minutes release at 2 p.m. ET, which may influence global risk sentiment, and the Cosmos (ATOM) v26.0.0 network upgrade scheduled for 01:30PM UTC, potentially affecting the Cosmos ecosystem.

Fear and Greed Index

38.00% Annual Percentile

13 Fear

Total Crypto Market Cap

$2.31T

1.26%

Total Market Trading Volume

$84.24B

6.25%

Altcoin Season Index

58.33%

Quarterly Percentile

33 / 100

Total Futures Market Open Interest

3.22B

2.24%

Futures

366.93B

4.09%

Perpetuals

II. Industry Updates

Macro-economic Policies

UK CPI inflation fell to 3.0% YoY in January 2026, increasing the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in March. Lower inflation and potential monetary easing could boost GBP-denominated crypto trading and DeFi liquidity.

The Federal Reserve will release detailed minutes from its January meeting today, expected to clarify the rationale for holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Market participants anticipate that a dovish tone could support risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.

UK retail and producer price indices both declined in January, signaling easing cost pressures. This trend may encourage institutional investors to reallocate capital to digital assets, potentially increasing crypto market inflows.

European stock indices rose over 1% today, reflecting improved risk sentiment after positive inflation data. Stronger equity markets often correlate with increased crypto market activity and higher NFT trading volumes.

Cryptocurrency Regulatory Trends

The CFTC has filed an amicus brief supporting Cryptocom in a jurisdiction dispute, asserting that sports event contracts are commodity derivatives under federal law, which may boost DeFi derivatives market confidence.

California has begun enforcing the Digital Financial Assets Act, requiring crypto businesses to obtain a DFAL license or exemption by July 1, 2026, increasing regulatory scrutiny and compliance costs for market participants.

The Hyperliquid Policy Center has launched in Washington, D.C., aiming to shape U.S. DeFi regulation and assist Congress in developing legal frameworks, potentially accelerating compliant DeFi adoption.

The stablecoin market remains stagnant at $300 billion amid market volatility, as regulatory integration efforts by firms like Visa and NYSE highlight the sector's dependence on evolving compliance frameworks.

The European Central Bank confirmed plans to issue a digital euro by 2029, reinforcing the EU's commitment to regulated digital currency and potentially influencing stablecoin and crypto asset oversight.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI): WLFI surged over 25% in 24h, driven by speculative trading and social media hype, with no major news or protocol updates confirmed.

Kite (KITE): KITE gained over 12% in 24h, with increased trading volume and community attention, but no significant listings or project announcements in the last 24 hours.

Midnight (NIGHT): NIGHT rose nearly 5% in 24h, showing steady price appreciation amid low liquidity and minor market activity, without notable news or ecosystem developments.

Smart Money Movements

Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments disclosed a combined $1.04 billion position in BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) as of December 31, 2025, with Mubadala holding $631 million and Al Warda $408 million.

BitMNR, a division of Fundstrat, increased its Ethereum holdings by $90 million, bringing its total to 4,371,497 ETH (about $8.7 billion), with 3 million ETH staked generating $176 million annually.

The whale 'neoyokio.eth' expanded his ASTER position to $14.9 million using 4x leverage, achieving an unrealized profit of $1.86 million and becoming the largest on-chain holder of ASTER.

Ark Invest purchased 41,453 Coinbase shares worth $6.9 million across three ETFs, reversing a previous reduction and making Coinbase a top holding in ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF funds.

The whale 'pension-USDT.eth' closed a $67 million Bitcoin long position at an average price of $67,100, securing a $505,000 profit, and has generated over $23 million in profits since October by rotating into yield markets.

Events to Watch

Feb 18 (Wed)

Federal Reserve will release January meeting minutes at 2 p.m. ET, offering insights into future rate cut discussions; Cosmos (ATOM) v26.0.0 network upgrade scheduled for 01:30PM UTC.

Feb 20 (Fri)

US PCE inflation figures and revised Q4 GDP data will be released, both key indicators for Fed policy and market sentiment.

Feb 26 (Thu)

SEC to decide on T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF, which includes XRP, potentially impacting institutional crypto investment flows.

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