Paradigm has revealed that most Polymarket data dashboards contain statistical errors due to the double counting of transaction volumes. In an official blog post, Paradigm explained that their analysis of Polymarket's market structure, event data, and smart contracts uncovered widespread inaccuracies. The complexity of Polymarket's on-chain data has led to flawed accounting methods, particularly the summing of OrderFilled events, which results in double-counting both the number of contracts traded and the dollar cash flow. Paradigm suggests using one-sided volume metrics, such as taker volume or market maker volume, for more accurate market volume predictions.
Paradigm Identifies Double Counting Errors in Polymarket Data
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