SpaceX, after its Nasdaq debut with a valuation of $2.6 trillion, has quickly become the fifth-largest publicly traded company. However, options market pricing indicates a less than 50% probability that SpaceX will rise to become the world's most valuable company by 2028. Currently, SpaceX's market cap is significantly below Alphabet and Apple, both valued over $4.4 trillion. To surpass them, SpaceX's stock would need to increase by 70% to $340 per share. The options market assigns a 38% chance of SpaceX becoming the largest company by June 2028, rising to 41% by year-end 2028, reflecting market expectations of a challenging path ahead.